2026 Trade deadline

[monkeytargets39]

Here’s the problem with everyone saying we are only X games out of the Wildcard….

So is every other team besides the Royals and Angels.  They all have reason to think they can make up ground as well.  There are going to be A LOT of potential buyers, so the smart thing to do is fleece them while still trying to be competitive this year 

[4hzglory]

1 hour ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Here’s the problem with everyone saying we are only X games out of the Wildcard….

So is every other team besides the Royals and Angels.  They all have reason to think they can make up ground as well.  There are going to be A LOT of potential buyers, so the smart thing to do is fleece them while still trying to be competitive this year 

However, this team going into the year, and prior to and since all the injuries in May, have a better roster and record than most/all of those teams.  This is a team, that yes, has flaws, but other then May when they had so many injuries to key players, has been one of the top teams in the AL.  That month may do them in, but I think the Tigers project to be better the rest of the way than basically every team ahead of them in the race for the last wild card slot.  Will it be 5 games better than all of them over the last 72 games?  That's the question.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, NorthWoods said:

McCoskey is onboard with me - trade Skubal for THIS season:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2026/07/06/for-tigers-scott-harris-trading-tarik-skubal-is-power-play-catch-22/90818699007/

"The optimal play would be to trade Skubal, not just for prospects but for assets that can help the Tigers’ push forward this season.

That sounds counterintuitive, for sure. How can they trade Skubal and get better? Maybe they can’t. But the rotation without Skubal — Mize, Flaherty, Troy Melton, Framber Valdez, Keider Montero and, hopefully by the end of the month, Justin Verlander and Jackson Jobe — is still formidable.

And if, somehow, trading Skubal can bring back an impact bat or two, and a prospect or two, then maybe the team doesn’t lose the momentum it’s starting to build.

Easy to say, hard to pull off"

And....

"It’s a critical time for the Tigers. In these next five-plus weeks, Harris is going to have to thread a needle between pushing for the present and protecting what still looms as a bright future for this organization.

This can’t be a selloff, like it was in 2017. The foundation is too strong. Strong enough, possibly, to withstand the pain of losing a homegrown star like Skubal."

 

 

The trick would be getting an impact bat from a team that can’t use him.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The trick would be getting an impact bat from a team that can’t use him.

It'd be taking a flyer on a high impact guy..... This is where Cam Smith from the Astros come into play.... someone of that nature.... 

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

It'd be taking a flyer on a high impact guy..... This is where Cam Smith from the Astros come into play.... someone of that nature.... 

In your specific scenario, another trick would be getting the Astros to trade for a pitcher who’s not going to help them win their division anyway.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

In your specific scenario, another trick would be getting the Astros to trade for a pitcher who’s not going to help them win their division anyway.

There is a lot of rumbling that the Astros want Skubal.... It's probably the #1 news in MLB trade rumors.... I don't think they have enough to be honest. But if they did, Cam Smith would have to be the center piece....... https://www.si.com/mlb/tigers/onsi/tigers-tarik-skubal-trade-deadline-sweepstakes-has-new-suitor

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

There is a lot of rumbling that the Astros want Skubal.... It's probably the #1 news in MLB trade rumors.... I don't think they have enough to be honest. But if they did, Cam Smith would have to be the center piece....... https://www.si.com/mlb/tigers/onsi/tigers-tarik-skubal-trade-deadline-sweepstakes-has-new-suitor

Well, OK, then. Cam Smith at minimum, obviously.

[monkeytargets39]

1 hour ago, 4hzglory said:

However, this team going into the year, and prior to and since all the injuries in May, have a better roster and record than most/all of those teams.  This is a team, that yes, has flaws, but other then May when they had so many injuries to key players, has been one of the top teams in the AL.  That month may do them in, but I think the Tigers project to be better the rest of the way than basically every team ahead of them in the race for the last wild card slot.  Will it be 5 games better than all of them over the last 72 games?  That's the question.

Sure but we need to be 5+ games better than them all in the next month to be in a position where keeping Skubal/Mize/etc. is a justifiable option.  If we are still several games under .500 by the trade deadline, and we keep everyone and go for it and don’t make the playoffs……everyone will be screaming for Harris’ head.

[4hzglory]

8 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Sure but we need to be 5+ games better than them all in the next month to be in a position where keeping Skubal/Mize/etc. is a justifiable option.  If we are still several games under .500 by the trade deadline, and we keep everyone and go for it and don’t make the playoffs……everyone will be screaming for Harris’ head.

IMO we need to be within 3 games of the wild card at the deadline to consider keeping Skubal/Mize/etc.  That gives us a month to make up 2 games.  If we are still 5 out then, and assuming an offer worth taking is there, I'm moving Skubal.  I'm just not doing it now unless I'm completely blown away by an offer.

[Tiger337]

16 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Sure but we need to be 5+ games better than them all in the next month to be in a position where keeping Skubal/Mize/etc. is a justifiable option.  If we are still several games under .500 by the trade deadline, and we keep everyone and go for it and don’t make the playoffs……everyone will be screaming for Harris’ head.

They'll be screaming for his head if they are 3 games out and he trades Skubal too.  

[NorthWoods]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

They'll be screaming for his head if they are 3 games out and he trades Skubal too.  

Of course some will be.   But many, many Detroit fans are savvy enough to know if the haul is big enough that it needed to be done.

[4hzglory]

Just now, NorthWoods said:

Of course some will be.   But many, many Detroit fans are savvy enough to know if the haul is big enough that it needed to be done.

If they're within 3 games, I don't want them to trade Skubal unless the haul is huge.

[NorthWoods]

8 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

If they're within 3 games, I don't want them to trade Skubal unless the haul is huge.

I'm not on that wagon because even if we made the playoffs with this lineup we're not going anywhere.   Better to take a swing at a step forward rather than treading water.

[oblong]

55 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Sure but we need to be 5+ games better than them all in the next month to be in a position where keeping Skubal/Mize/etc. is a justifiable option.  If we are still several games under .500 by the trade deadline, and we keep everyone and go for it and don’t make the playoffs……everyone will be screaming for Harris’ head.

Someone has to win the spots.  Why not the Tigers. Let the other teams play the “it’s too hard” card.   A professional sports franchise cannot send a message to the players and fans that something is too hard.  They are in a hole, yes, but so are other teams.  The fun part is some of them in the hole get to make the playoffs. 

[4hzglory]

25 minutes ago, NorthWoods said:

I'm not on that wagon because even if we made the playoffs with this lineup we're not going anywhere.   Better to take a swing at a step forward rather than treading water.

With this lineup that led the majors in HRs for June?  This lineup that in April and May was in the top 10 in runs?  This lineup that is improved over last year's that were extra innings from going to the ALCS?  All with a better rotation and a bullpen that will be improved if they get into the playoffs as they will only need 4 starters, so 3 of Melton, Flaherty, Montero, Jobe will be in the bullpen.

[oblong]

28 minutes ago, NorthWoods said:

I'm not on that wagon because even if we made the playoffs with this lineup we're not going anywhere.   Better to take a swing at a step forward rather than treading water.

A step forward isn’t guaranteed.  You take the chances. 

[monkeytargets39]

I’m also not comfortable with saying that our awful May was because of injuries.  Everyone from May that was on the IL has pretty much still been there except Carpenter and Skubal.  Even when Mize and Skubal were out, we had Melton and then Montero fill in and be pretty equal.  
 

I watched pretty much every one of those May games and this is why we went 6-22:

1.) Torkelson, Keith, McKinstry, Vierling, Perez, Jones, Lee were all incredibly poor on offense.

2.) Attocious defense, even by out good defenders aside from Dingler.

3.) Bullpen couldn’t hold a lead regardless of situation.

 

 Based off of what I’ve watched, you could convince me that the stretch of bad defense was flukey and that it won’t recur because we aren’t playing Perez in RF and Vierling in CF every day now.  However, at this point I’m not going to go into the rest of this year thinking that there isn’t a decent chance that the Tork/Keith/McKinstry/Lee/Outman/Vierling group won’t all disappear offensively again for good stretches, and I certainly am not convinced that the bullpen is on an uptick.

To me, it’s just as likely we go 11-15 the next month than it is 15-11.  I hope we win every game and keep Skubal and make a deep playoff run, but we have to stay grounded in reality based off what we have seen over the last 162 games.  High level play isn’t necessarily a given between now and the deadline.

[Tiger337]

30 minutes ago, NorthWoods said:

I'm not on that wagon because even if we made the playoffs with this lineup we're not going anywhere.   Better to take a swing at a step forward rather than treading water.

Any team that makes the playoffs has a chance.  11 teams will fail, 1 team will win.  So, it's always a gamble.  If anything, the teams with the best top off the rotation starters have somewhat of an advantage in post-season because of all the days off.  

[Tiger337]

3 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

To me, it’s just as likely we go 11-15 the next month than it is 15-11.  I hope we win every game and keep Skubal and make a deep playoff run, but we have to stay grounded in reality based off what we have seen over the last 162 games.  High level play isn’t necessarily a given between now and the deadline.

We also have to stay grounded as to how much trading Skubal will impact the future.  It could improve them a lot, but that's not a given.  They might not get as much in return as a lot of people think.  They also might get what looks like a super return and then it doesn't pan out.    

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, 4hzglory said:

IMO we need to be within 3 games of the wild card at the deadline to consider keeping Skubal/Mize/etc.  That gives us a month to make up 2 games.  If we are still 5 out then, and assuming an offer worth taking is there, I'm moving Skubal.  I'm just not doing it now unless I'm completely blown away by an offer.

The $64 question.

[monkeytargets39]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

We also have to stay grounded as to how much trading Skubal will impact the future.  It could improve them a lot, but that's not a given.  They might not get as much in return as a lot of people think.  They also might get what looks like a super return and then it doesn't pan out.    

True.  I also happen to think that if we can’t turn a playoff rental of the two time reigning Cy Young winner into something more valuable than what we could get as a comp pick….then we are being led by an inept GM and we should shelf all expectations of contending until we get a competent leader in the front office….

 

its definitely going to be an interesting next month or so.  My opinion on what we should be looking to do may very well change within that span, but right now I’m at like 95% on looking to move Skubal and retool for next year.

[4hzglory]

28 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

I’m also not comfortable with saying that our awful May was because of injuries.  Everyone from May that was on the IL has pretty much still been there except Carpenter and Skubal.  Even when Mize and Skubal were out, we had Melton and then Montero fill in and be pretty equal.  
 

I watched pretty much every one of those May games and this is why we went 6-22:

1.) Torkelson, Keith, McKinstry, Vierling, Perez, Jones, Lee were all incredibly poor on offense.

 

Which goes back to the fact that over the past 2 1/2 years, the Tigers are a 95 win team with Carpenter and almost a 100 loss team without him.  He has made more of an impact on the lineup than he gets credit for.   No he’s not a 10 war player, but our lineup has been much much better over the past 2 1/2 years with him than without him.

[NorthWoods]

57 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

With this lineup that led the majors in HRs for June?  This lineup that in April and May was in the top 10 in runs?  This lineup that is improved over last year's that were extra innings from going to the ALCS?  All with a better rotation and a bullpen that will be improved if they get into the playoffs as they will only need 4 starters, so 3 of Melton, Flaherty, Montero, Jobe will be in the bullpen.

Yes, that lineup that is still frustratingly inept at times.

How about if I agree with your argument but with this addendum:   Your 4 starters are??  Skubal, Valdez, Mize, &  ??    I would think Melton.    You surely can't be thinking of starting Verlander at this point?   I'd talk to him about bullpen work in the playoffs.

How much would this team's chances be harmed if instead the 4 starters were: Mize, Melton, Valdez & (the good) Flaherty with the addition of a talented CF in place of Outman? Or 2 OFer's in place of Outman and Carpenter and move Carp to DH?

So now you lengthen your lineup and improve your defense in every inning of every game of a series while your pitching suffers a bit for 12 innings in a 5 games series?  I see the offensive/defensive improvement as at least offsetting whatever loss you have in the pitching department and very likely producing a net gain.

And the best part is that they're here next year and in the future to produce further gains.

 

 

[Edman85]

Playoff odds are about 25% in both Fangraphs and Prospectus. If those numbers are there or lower come trade deadline time, go ahead and sell.

I would say 1/3 (33%) is my threshold. See how the next 3-4 weeks play out. This year alone should be a lesson that progress isn't linear. You should push in when you have the chance, because the next year things can just go awry.

[4hzglory]

17 minutes ago, NorthWoods said:

Yes, that lineup that is still frustratingly inept at times.

How about if I agree with your argument but with this addendum:   Your 4 starters are??  Skubal, Valdez, Mize, &  ??    I would think Melton.    You surely can't be thinking of starting Verlander at this point?   I'd talk to him about bullpen work in the playoffs.

How much would this team's chances be harmed if instead the 4 starters were: Mize, Melton, Valdez & (the good) Flaherty with the addition of a talented CF in place of Outman? Or 2 OFer's in place of Outman and Carpenter and move Carp to DH?

So now you lengthen your lineup and improve your defense in every inning of every game of a series while your pitching suffers a bit for 12 innings in a 5 games series?  I see the offensive/defensive improvement as at least offsetting whatever loss you have in the pitching department and very likely producing a net gain.

And the best part is that they're here next year and in the future to produce further gains.

 

 

I didn’t even mention Verlander for a reason.  I’d be shocked if he pitches at all this season.  And how does your pitching suffer?  If Melton is the 4th starter, you have Montero, Flaherty, and Jobe in the pen replacing some of the current weak links.

Edited July 6 by 4hzglory