chasfh Posted July 4 Posted July 4 Here on the 4th of July, the traditional halfway point of the season, the Tigers are the only team to have two position players in the fWAR top ten. 3 Quote
gehringer_2 Posted July 4 Posted July 4 (edited) 56 minutes ago, casimir said: small tiger or large baseball? Edited July 4 by gehringer_2 Quote
Sports_Freak Posted July 4 Posted July 4 1 hour ago, chasfh said: Here on the 4th of July, the traditional halfway point of the season, the Tigers are the only team to have two position players in the fWAR top ten. We're also +5 in run differential, 2nd best in our division. With an expected record of 45-43. Some stats can be very misleading. Our 19 bullpen blown leads are the worst in MLB. A much more telling stat. 😒😒 Quote
gehringer_2 Posted July 4 Posted July 4 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said: We're also +5 in run differential, 2nd best in our division. With an expected record of 45-43. Some stats can be very misleading. Our 19 bullpen blown leads are the worst in MLB. A much more telling stat. 😒😒 but the stats don't capture the fact the end of game limits how many runs the bad BP can give up. When the walk off run scores the game is over, even if the projected ERA or expected run value for that quality of pitching would be much worse if the game had continued. Edited July 4 by gehringer_2 1 Quote
IdahoBert Posted July 4 Posted July 4 I wish we could play a bad team like the New York Yankees in the Bronx every game… Quote
NorthWoods Posted July 4 Posted July 4 38 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: The stat that matters is 38-50. Its old fashioned to value wins. 1 Quote
Sports_Freak Posted July 4 Posted July 4 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: but the stats don't capture the fact the end of game limits how many runs the bad BP can give up. When the walk off run scores the game is over, even if the projected ERA or expected run value for that quality of pitching would be much worse if the game had continued. True. That's exactly why the number of 1 run losses is so misleading. Quote
chasfh Posted July 4 Posted July 4 4 hours ago, Sports_Freak said: We're also +5 in run differential, 2nd best in our division. With an expected record of 45-43. Some stats can be very misleading. Our 19 bullpen blown leads are the worst in MLB. A much more telling stat. 😒😒 I am not clear on how much of that 19 blown-save situation is due to bad luck, inopportune poor pitching at the wrong time, inability to perform in clutch situations, in-game mismanagement, or poor roster construction. I think a lot of fans want desperately to believe it's 100% the last two. I think it's mostly split among the first three, with a smattering of the last two in there as well. I'd love to try to get at whether it's even possible to analytically determine something this. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted July 4 Posted July 4 (edited) 3 minutes ago, chasfh said: I am not clear on how much of that 19 blown-save situation is due to bad luck, inopportune poor pitching at the wrong time, inability to perform in clutch situations, in-game mismanagement, or poor roster construction. I think a lot of fans want desperately to believe it's 100% the last two. I think it's mostly split among the first three, with a smattering of the last two in there as well. I'd love to try to get at whether it's even possible to analytically determine something this. you know the old expression -- One is happenstance, two is a coincidence, three is enemy action..... seriously though, the guys getting blown up are mostly showing a decay in the quality of their peripherals. I think they are mostly pitching badly. Maybe there are a few guys beating us on great swings on tough pitches, but from what I've seen it's mostly pitchers getting behind and/or throwing cookies. Edited July 4 by gehringer_2 Quote
chasfh Posted July 4 Posted July 4 (edited) 26 minutes ago, chasfh said: I am not clear on how much of that 19 blown-save situation is due to bad luck, inopportune poor pitching at the wrong time, inability to perform in clutch situations, in-game mismanagement, or poor roster construction. I think a lot of fans want desperately to believe it's 100% the last two. I think it's mostly split among the first three, with a smattering of the last two in there as well. I'd love to try to get at whether it's even possible to analytically determine something this. Well, Claude for one thinks my theory is at least a little wet. I uploaded Statcast 2026 pitch data into Claude Cowork and here is what it came up with. Add your own salt. ***** That's matching up perfectly — 19 events. Now let me dig into the specifics and search for context simultaneously.That's the full picture I need. Let me now assemble the analysis.This is a rich dataset. The statcast data actually captures all 19 blown saves perfectly — let me walk you through what the data shows for each of your diagnostic categories. Detroit Tigers 2026 Blown Saves: A Diagnosis The Big Picture The Tigers have entered save situations (defined here as 7th inning or later with a 1-3 run lead) in 36 games and blown the lead in 17 of them — a 47% blown save rate, which is genuinely catastrophic. The 19 blown save events across those 17 games breaks down as follows: Pitcher Blown Saves HRs Singles Other Finnegan, Kyle 5 2 2 1 (sac bunt) Vest, Will 5 2 2 1 (sac fly) Jansen, Kenley 4 4 0 0 Anderson, Drew 3 2 1 0 Holton, Tyler 1 1 0 0 Vanasco, Ricky 1 1 0 0 The most striking fact: 12 of 19 blown saves (63%) came on home runs, and 16 of 19 came with only a 1-run lead. This is not a unit that's being mauled by rallies — it's getting beaten by one swing, one run at a time. 1. Bad Luck? — Partially, but mostly no. Of the 12 blown-save home runs, the exit velocities ranged from 97.9 to 111.5 mph, with an average of 102.8 mph and average distance of 393 feet. Exactly zero were cheapies under 95 mph. Eight of the 17 blown-save hits had xwOBA > 1.0 (i.e., genuinely well-struck balls the pitcher fully deserved to give up). Six more were in the 0.5–1.0 range (hard contact, bad outcomes). Only three could be called potentially lucky for the hitter. That said, there is some bad luck in the sense that home run clustering in save situations can be random: the Tigers' save-situation HR rate is 5.4% (vs. their overall rate of 2.8% and the league reliever average of 2.9%). Some regression toward the mean should be expected going forward — you'd expect a team to give up fewer HRs in high-leverage spots over a full season just by chance. But the magnitude here is too large to explain away as variance alone. 2. Inopportune Poor Pitching — Yes, this is real. Every one of the four main relievers performs meaningfully worse in save situations than overall, by xwOBA: Pitcher Overall xwOBA Save-Sit xwOBA Finnegan .322 .377 Vest .307 .347 Jansen .307 .338 Anderson .279 .309 These aren't dramatic differences, but they're all in the same direction, which suggests it isn't noise. The save situation HR rate (5.4%) vs. their overall rate (2.8%) is the clearest signal. 3. Inability to Perform in Clutch Situations — Mixed picture, with Jansen as the key exhibit. The runners-on vs. bases-empty xwOBA split is revealing: Finnegan: actually better with runners on (.268) than bases empty (.379) — no clutch problem Vest: slightly worse with runners on (.330 vs. .282) — modest concern Jansen: significantly worse with runners on (.447 vs. .226) — this is a real clutch issue for a guy who's supposed to be your closer Jansen is particularly troubling here. His four blown saves are all on home runs — two cutters, two sinkers — with average exit velocities of 105.6 mph. His sinker velocity has also been declining, from 94.4 mph in April down to 91.95 in June. He's been on the IL with pelvic inflammation, and all the evidence points to a pitcher who is diminished, not just unlucky. 4. In-Game Mismanagement — One notable flag. The managerial mismanagement question really comes down to one decision: why did Jansen keep getting the ball in the 9th? He pitched 12 games in save situations — more than anyone else — and went 0-for-4 converting them, all on home runs. By late April the pattern was already established (two blown saves in the first month, both on long balls), yet he continued to get closing assignments through late May. That's a trust-the-veteran mistake with real, measurable consequences. The rest of the bullpen usage looks defensible given the roster available. 5. Poor Roster Construction — This is the most defensible diagnosis. The offseason bet on Kenley Jansen (1 yr / $9M) as the closer has been the single biggest driver. He's 38 years old, hurt, and posting a 5.31 ERA with 5 HR allowed in 87 PA. He is the worst-performing reliever by HR rate at 5.7% HR/PA — nearly double the league reliever average. Beyond Jansen, Will Vest is now on the IL and has been replaced by Beau Brieske from Triple-A. Reese Olson (starter depth) had season-ending shoulder surgery. The bullpen has had cascading injury issues that leave them with essentially no high-leverage depth beyond Finnegan and Anderson. The relievers aren't bad pitchers — Finnegan's 2.01 ERA and Anderson's strong overall xwOBA (.279) suggest a solid foundational unit. But the top of the bullpen (the guy you want holding one-run leads in the 9th) has been a black hole. Bottom Line The rough rank-ordering of causes: Poor roster construction — Signing Jansen was the foundational mistake. He's been the unit's most damaging reliever in exactly the highest-leverage situations. Inopportune poor pitching — The home run rate in save situations (5.4%) is legitimately elevated and not just bad luck. Clutch underperformance — Jansen specifically is measurably worse with runners on and in high-leverage spots. Vest shows it modestly. Injuries compounding thin depth — Vest, Olson, and others on the IL have narrowed options dramatically. In-game mismanagement — Secondary factor; Jansen getting continued trust in closing roles despite evidence he shouldn't be there is the main knock. Bad luck — Real but modest. Three of the 19 blown-save hits were genuinely lucky for the hitter; the other 16 were earned. The good news, such as it is: Finnegan is actually pitching well, Anderson is solid, and some HR variance in save situations should normalize downward in the second half. But until the Jansen question is resolved one way or another — he's on the IL now — this pen is going to keep leaking. Sources: Detroit Tigers Bullpen Stats — Inside the Pen Detroit Tigers injuries and roster moves — MLB.com More injuries, more problems for the Tigers pitching staff — Bless You Boys Kenley Jansen stats — MLB.com Kyle Finnegan — ESPN 2026 Detroit Tigers Statistics — Baseball-Reference Edited July 4 by chasfh Quote
Sports_Freak Posted July 4 Posted July 4 20 minutes ago, chasfh said: I am not clear on how much of that 19 blown-save situation is due to bad luck, inopportune poor pitching at the wrong time, inability to perform in clutch situations, in-game mismanagement, or poor roster construction. I think a lot of fans want desperately to believe it's 100% the last two. I think it's mostly split among the first three, with a smattering of the last two in there as well. I'd love to try to get at whether it's even possible to analytically determine something this. The inconsistency of the bullpen arms is strictly on the players. Hinch puts them in the best position he can to be successful. Building a shutdowm BP is mostly luck. Bad luck this season. In 2024, the bullpen pitched us into the playoffs. This season, they'll cost us a chance to get into the playoffs. Its not over yet. Look how the 2024 Tigers came back and how Cleveland came back last year. We just need to win and have a couple (a few) teams collapse. Quote
Tiger337 Posted July 4 Posted July 4 5 hours ago, Tenacious D said: The stat that matters is 38-50. That's what matters as far as determining the playoff participants. Run differential an other things may be more predictive of future performance. Quote
Tiger337 Posted July 4 Posted July 4 5 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: but the stats don't capture the fact the end of game limits how many runs the bad BP can give up. When the walk off run scores the game is over, even if the projected ERA or expected run value for that quality of pitching would be much worse if the game had continued. But their projected runs allowed is very close to their actual runs allowed. On the hitting side, their projected runs scored is substantially higher than their actual runs scored. Quote
Tigermojo Posted July 4 Posted July 4 Overall the bullpen has been pretty average which is what I expected. I don't think any of us were excited about three 20 saves guys. We knew there would be issues. The starters have been good as expected. Just not the starters we expected to be good. The problem has been the position players with a few exceptions. These guys have been worse at hitting, fielding and base running than they were the last two years. There's plenty of blame to go around for the entire organization. The players were challenged at the end of last season to find ways to improve and many of them are much worse. I expected much more from the position players. The bullpen is not really surprising to me. Quote
NorthWoods Posted July 4 Posted July 4 10 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: Is Claude available to manage the Tigers? I'd heard he already does? Sidenote: Happy 250th to America! - we have our warts but still indisputably the best country in the world. Quote
IdahoBert Posted July 4 Posted July 4 Just checked, saw Riley hit a two run homer ha ha wonderful. I’m watching the Tour de France that I missed this morning and it’s pretty cool so good luck everybody! Quote
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