Scottwood

That's actually an incredible hire.  Shep to Benetti is going to be a sharp contrast.

Sounds like Rodriguez agreed to the deal and then backed away right when it was about to be completed. 

4 hours ago, Cruzer1 said:

The pool money goes to rounds 1-10, there are rules about rounds 11-20.

Yeah, anything over $150 k counts against the bonus pool money.  

Based off their picks today, it seems like the Tigers were tapped out.

Lots of prep players.  I'd have to double check, but they will probably end up with more signed than any other organization.  They definitely have a type they went for among hitters.  

Looking back at the first ten rounds, and I wonder if the Tigers have enough bonus pool money left to take one more big swing on one of the top best players still available.  There are several top 100 prospects out there and that would really boost the draft class. 

The saved money on Clark probably mostly went to McGonigle. But then they probably saved a few hundred thousand with the Anderson pick and those savings went towards Wilson and Rucker.  I'm guessing Lee, DIaz, Minton and Sears were all under slot. Thus, there could be extra money saved for a $500 k+ bonus offer on top of the $150 K that players get from rounds 11-20.

The big unknown is Rucker, though.  On the surface, it doesn't seem like they would have had to go way over slot to draft him.  He was ranked around where they drafted him or even a little lower.  But, he was kind of a pre-draft guy where he's raw now but could have hit in college and gone 1st round a few years from now.  So, it's possible the savings from Lee, Sears, etc. went towards him.

I don't really understand all of the discussion happening among the Tiger fanbase about the timeline.  You don't draft for need in baseball and, also, Greene is arguably the only legit building block on the team and he's 22. If Clark develops like the Tigers hope he will, then he'll be in Detroit when Greene is only in his mid 20's.  I don't really see the issue.

The Tigers took more HS players than any other organization in the first 10 rounds.

I liked the overall approach in this draft and there really weren't any wild selections either.  Everything made sense.

Anderson was around 50th in Keith Law's rankings and he was 52nd in an analytical-model based big board by someone on MLB draft twitter that was just hired away by the Cubs, Mason McRae (his big board is no longer public).  Anderson doesn't strike out and had really strong EV metrics.  

I actually found that to be kind of an encouraging pick depending how the rest of the class shakes out.  Thus far, there has been a change in draft philosophy.  I probably wouldn't have picked Clark, but that wasn't out of left field- he was an easy top 5 prospect in this draft and would have gone #1 in a number of drafts. He's a great prospect with high upside and there is an argument for him over Langford because Clark is sticking in CF long term and those guys are rare to find.  He could be a genuine two-way star whereas that wasn't very likely with Langford.  Langford was a safer pick. At the end of the day, though, the player development aspect is the most important thing.

https://masonmcrae.medium.com/notes-on-college-draft-prospects-7e31392f676e

"Outside of a fringy batter’s eye, Anderson’s offensive profile is really good. He has juice and a 106 90th percentile EV on top of a 110+ batted ball. He’s running a 94 mph average EV, he’s never had issues with strikeouts and he seldomly whiffs at pitches in the zone. He hasn’t had a great season in college up until this spring, but the pitch-level numbers have suggested he’s always been good. You’d like to see him swing less, chase less, and therefore walk more, but it could be an area of improvement for a pro ball dev staff. He’s hit two-thirds of his batted balls over 95 mph, it’s real power and he’s not giving away contact to get to it. He’s running a 4% walk rate though. Above-average defender at third. He was one of the better hitters this summer on the Cape and he walked much more. Looking like a late day one profile that model-driven orgs will have an eye on."

I really despise the players-only broadcasts.

It sounds like Pittsburgh is shopping an under slot deal to the other 4 big names and prefers a bat.  The guys at MLB.com seem to think Washington will take Skenes over Crews.

7 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

I agree. I watched him last night and unbelievably they brought him out for the seventh inning despite winning 12 to zip and about 80 pitches. He looked ordinary that inning. Tired or uninspired. Hope we pass on him. 

My money is on Jenkins. I think Crews and Langford go 1 and 2. 
 

 

He's definitely in the Strasburg-tier of pitching prospects in the draft the last decade +.  He was throwing 100+ on pitch 124 in the game I saw and his stuff is amazing.  But, pitchers are so dangerous that it would be hard to get that excited about him if the Tigers took him.

I'd be concerned with how LSU's coaching staff is using Skenes.  They had him throw 124 pitches in a blowout about a week ago.

Keith is hitting better than Torkelson did in AA at the same age.  In retrospect, there was plenty of warning signs about Tork before he entered MLB (namely the rumors about him not doing well in 2020 during fall instructional league play, bad defense at 1B and his low BABIP in 2021).  Just box score watching and pure statistical modeling, you'd think Keith was a better prospect.

The Tigers were probably the worst organization in MLB when Harris took over.  It is going to take some time to turn it around.  This draft and offseason will be a bit more telling about Harris and the front office's process and strategy.

There is substantially less incentive to tank anymore under the new CBA, so I don't expect that to actually be Harris' plan in the years to come.  It doesn't make much sense with the flat lottery odds and the inability to pick in the top 6 more than 2 years in a row.

On a team like Detroit, there's probably only going to be 3 or 4 guys that aren't platooned or in some rotation in the future under Harris.  As an example, look at how the Rays have historically moved their lineups around and use their players in platoons.  Baddoo/Vierling, in an actual platoon, would give above average overall production (counting offense, defense, baserunning) for a corner OF spot.

I'm not in love with the option of Teel at #3.  I guess I like that we haven't been linked to pitchers at all, even though Skenes is a high-end pitcher.  

I think if Cabrera rarely swung the bat and just tried to get walks then that would be a major improvement. He does have a 16.7% walk rate in May, so that has been one positive sign.

I think even if McKinstry bottoms out, it was still a good process to seek him out and acquire him.  There was a lot of underlying data that was really good for him.  If they keep acquiring players like that, some may not work out but a number of them will.  So far, a lot of what Harris and company have done has made sense.  Hopefully it continues.  It would be fun to follow a smart organization for once rather than trying to live vicariously through the Rays fanbase or similar organizations.

Latest rumors have been the Tigers like Clark and Jenkins, but neither of them would be even close to an off the wall pick like taking Jobe.  Until right before the draft when the Tigers fell in love with him, Jobe was commonly mocked to go in the teens. Both Clark and Jenkins would be seen as top 50 overall prospects in MLB from day 1 and I think ESPN has them both in the top 30.  I'd be happy with any of Crews, Langford, Jenkins or Clark.

I'd expect Short to get more at bats in the immediate future and they'll give him an opportunity to shore up an infield spot. McKinstry was a great find and the kind of move the Rays make all the time, so that is highly encouraging for the future. I think the Tigers are several position players short for this specific season, but Harris has done a lot of good things so far given what he inherited.

The Tigers got so lucky that the 2021 draft fell the way it did and Mayer was there for the taking.  The Jobe pick (and at such a giant salary bonus) was representative of lots of issues in the organization and its decision making.

15 hours ago, Shinzaki said:

That seems like a "hot take"....did he explain why Langford is a better pick than Crews?

 

I would prefer Langford if he's there (assuming Crews isn't) but Jenkins or Clark sound like great prospects as well.  My preference is for the RH power OF

The theory is Langford would be cheaper and there isn't a big gap between Crews and Langford.

Keith Law thinks any of the top 5 guys could go #1 in a typical draft.  Maybe it is groupthink, but every analyst I've seen agrees about the strength at the top of the class.  

Cabrera was arguably the best position player in baseball from 2008 (first Tigers season) through 2016. He had the best WAR in baseball in that timespan.  From 2017 through the present, he has the 3rd worst WAR in MLB.  I'm not sure if there has ever been such a sustained period of excellence combined with such a sustained period of awful play in a player's career before.  Pujols would be the closest comp but then he kind of ruined it because he did so well his last season, so Cabrera probably beats him. Also, Pujols had a more gradual fall at first whereas Cabrera was a 5 win player in 2016 and then has been a replacement level player or worse every year since.

On 5/17/2023 at 12:06 PM, SoCalTiger said:

I might be wrong but it seems we do not have even one solid pitching prospect in the minors. The strikeout  totals are poor. So maybe Skenes will be the pick ?

Madden is going to end up a top 100 prospect at some point.

The top 4 of this class is crazy strong.  I think all of them would have been the #1 prospect if in a different draft the past couple of years.  The Tigers got really lucky to get bumped up in the lottery to #3.  I'd be doing cartwheels for any of Crews, Langford and Jenkins. Skenes is also probably the best college pitching prospect since Strasburg. 

It's also a strong top 50 of a class, so it is a good draft to have 3 of the top 50 as well, and the 2nd highest overall bonus pool.

Cabrera is arguably the worst player in MLB and I don't get why he is playing anymore.  At least if your goal is to win, that is.