Good chance the Wings won't mathematically survive past this weekend, perhaps not even past today.
The Wings have the 9th best record in the East but passing 8th Philadelphia doesn't get them in. Because they need to finish in the Atlantic's top 5, passing either Boston or Ottawa.
The Wings' tragic number with Boston is 2 points, with each team having 3 games left to play. So even if the Wings were to win out to get to 97 points, the Bruins' 96 points currently means they'd just need 2 points to reach 98 and eliminate the Wings. The Wings will win the tiebreaker with Boston if they both finish at 97, provided at least one of the Wings' wins in their 3-0 finish is in regulation. Boston's early game today hosting Tampa should be over by the time the Wings take the ice at 5pm hosting New Jersey, so if Boston beats the Bolts they'll already be out of the picture for the Wings. After today, Boston finishes at Columbus on Sunday and hosting New Jersey Tuesday.
The Wings' tragic number with Ottawa is 3 points, with each team having 3 games left to play. So even if the Wings were to win out to get to 97 points, the Sens' 96 points currently means they'd just need 3 points to reach 97 and eliminate the Wings. The Sens will win any tiebreaker over Detroit. Ottawa's early game today at NYI should be over by the time the Wings take the ice at 5pm hosting New Jersey, so if Ottawa wins today in regulation the Wings would be eliminated with a loss. After today, Ottawa finishes at New Jersey on Sunday and hosting Toronto on Wednesday.
The only way the Wings are still alive going into Game 81 in Tampa on Monday is if the Wings beat New Jersey today and either Boston picks up no more than 1 point in its 2 games this weekend or Ottawa picks up no more than 2 points in its 2 games this weekend.