pyrotigers

He's also had multiple cases of "dead arm" or "soreness" or whatever since his drafting. I will wildly speculate that he probably needed this surgery to ever be fully healthy and successful. 

Or he just wasn't that good, guess we'll find out 

On 8/7/2022 at 2:38 PM, 1984Echoes said:

Prospects from our pre-season 2022 prospects (I don't care where they were ranked) who have made it to MLB in 2022:

Tork, Greene, Brieske, Wentz, Clemens, Faedo, Elvin Rodriguez. Did I miss anyone? Maybe Carpenter in September? maybe not.. if so..

2023 Prospects I expect to see break into MLB sometime in 2023, even if it's just a cup:

Wenceel Perez, Dillon Dingler, Parker Meadows, Reese Olson, Ryan Kreidler, Kerry Carpenter (if not this year), maybe Wilmer Flores too...

Prospects who have ALREADY made in to MLB in the past couple of years: 

 

2019 Jake Rogers & Tyler Alexander & Greg Soto, 2018 Spencer Turnbull, 2017 Joe Jimenez, 2020 Rookies: Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Daz Cameron, Rony Garcia, 2021 Rookies: Matt Manning, Akil Baddoo, Alex Lange, Jason Foley

 

When was the last time our farm system was producing this much?

Out if this list who has proven that they're likely to have more long term value than Stewart? Skubal alone 

(I expect Greene and Tork to join him next season, but most of these guys stink and wouldn't have made it to mlb if we had a better roster. I'm not going to give the org props for using 30 pitchers this year, that's a bad thing. 

On 8/7/2022 at 1:29 PM, 1984Echoes said:

I still contend that it's not just hope or "thinking". It's not.

There is no possible way that in 2016, with Christin "mother-trucking CRAP fielder, DH-Only, with huge flaws in his swing but has some power" Stewart the #2 prospect (number TWO!!!!); it is a comparable list to 2022. I mean, seriously? You can't find any prospects in 2022 that you like better than Christin MF'in (excuse the language... but I really didn't like Christin Stewart as a prospect at all) Stewart?

Seriously?

Because I stated this: "Christin Stewart was our #2 prospect? And you can't find one better prospect than him on our 2022 list? Seriously? Because I see 13 guys on our 2022 list that I like a whole lot more than Christin Stewart. And Beau Burrows. And Jacoby Jones..."

If you can't find a few guys as better prospects than Christin Stewart on our 2022 list... then I don't think the fault, or Blind Faith, or my "thinking" is the flaw. It's not me at this point.

Prove me wrong.

I believe the point isn't that Stewart is good, it's that he also mashed in the minors, just like a bunch of guys we have now who also have little major league future. 

I'd like to think Carpenter or Kriedler, or Dingler will hit in the majors, but to be blunt none of them are very good or interesting prospects at this point. 

I see the Cubs claimed Franmil Reyes, presumably the Tigers didn't feel they needed a free swinging guy who doesn't hit in the majors when their farm system is loaded with guys who can do that in the future 

12 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Yeah, the Grossman trade is more like a B for me.

D sounds about right for the Fulmer trade and the general strategy employed my the GM

He's a free agent anyway, the only gain is that Chris saved some money. As a fan, I view this as a negative 

I was honestly surprised he didn't give us an F

18 hours ago, JackPine said:

Is anyone else worried about skubal's forearm tightness?

Nice to see manning back today

Very much so, given that "forearm tightness" very often actually means "ucl damage" 

But, I could also see the Tigers exaggerating a little when really they didn't want to trade him or overwork him this year, so hopefully it's just that 

I miss the 90s Tigers teams of my youth. Being God awful but losing 8-6 is a lot more exciting than 2-0 every day 

I actually don't know why they would have traded for the Gipson guy if he wasn't going to start in mlb. He's old with a low ceiling but his peripherals are pretty good. 

Seems like the guy you make your fifth starter and hope he can give you a 4.5 Era and some innings 

So you know, 4A trash/filler

Absolutely perplexed how someone could be dumb enough to say "we weren't trying to do anything" and not instantly get fired. 

A part of my job is (unfortunately) making collection calls. I should tell my boss that I'm just going to wait for people to call me from now on and see how it goes over. 

At the least, part of a GMs job is public relations, and Avila is abysmal at this 

11 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Yes, each game is the same, but that is not the point.  Getting back to championships, if the Tigers make the playoffs five years in a row (yeah, I know that's crazy!) they are more likely to win at least one championship than if they only make the playoffs once in five years.   

I've designed this handy imaginary diagram for two competing situations. In scenario one, the Tigers utterly sell out and boost their chances one season, but never again make the playoffs, in the other they make it every season but are not a favorite. 

Scenario one: 1/8+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0

Scenario two: 1/12+1/12+1/12+1/12+1/12+1/12+1/12+1/12+1/12+1/12

What I've decided is fractions suck and I'm a fool for not using decimals for this. Feel free to mock me, I deserve it. 

The gambler's fallacy is the idea that if you lost in the past your odds improve. 

No one is suggesting that. It's just that ten longshots are better than two slightly lesser longshots

I don't think you even need to get into math here. Most fans would rather compete every year than have one year with a higher chance of winning the series then turn to garbage 

The Tigers of course are mastering the garbage part without the good season aspect, which admittedly is even less ideal 

47 minutes ago, KL2 said:

Not true at all. 

The odds are the same and what happen in previous or future years has no barring on the current playoffs. In baseball its 1 in 12 every year. And if you make it the next year its 1 in 12 again. it doesn't improve just because you made it multiple years. It's the same thinking that gets people to spend $100 on lotto tickets. 

If you have a 1/12 chance at hitting a home run, does that mean your odds of hitting one home run in a decade are the same if you have one or ten at bats? 

It's probably more important to have a "proven closer" with the right mentality than a bunch of prospects at far more valuable and difficult to fill positions. When you're a team with like five good relievers and limited talent everywhere else, you make the smart play: build through the part of the team that is only useful if the other (terrible) parts won the first six innings. 

Whoa, I think I briefly used latent psychic powers to channel Al Avila's id for a moment there. 

Seriously, they basically have to trade at least a couple of them, and the longer it takes the more concerned I become. 

Grossman was bad as an everyday player, but he's one of the best hitters in mlb vs lhp this year. 

I don't really care about the return because he was worthless to us, but he wasn't complete garbage to other teams, hopefully the guys who have longer term value bring more back 

If Soto pitched for another team, and the Tigers traded a top prospect for him, I'd be posting here about how stupid it was and how it was a classic Tigers mistake. 

We have multiple pitchers we got for nothing off the scrap heap who have performed similarly. 

Obviously, I hope other teams disagree with me 

Not to get political, but all I can say is that even if the problems are 100% real and serious, I, a college graduate who makes "slightly" less than Eduardo would have been fired like two weeks ago. I suspect that's driving a lot of the fan angst about him. 

If the organization isn't flat out lying, his behavior is at the least horribly unprofessional. 

At least two of the guys they've drafted will probably end up in the outfield. They called Castellanos a SS when they drafted him. I wouldn't worry about that much 

Draft seems fine to me, nothing bold or big, but they could use some guys who turn into usable big league position players

Given it's a Tigers draft, I'll assume we'll draft the highest rated player who falls to us, and they'll likely either be:

A hard throwing right-hander with injury and control problems 

Or 

A right handed power bat with holes in their swing and problems with pitch recognition 

Anyone remember that time Pudge Rodriguez hit 500 for a month, even though he had one of the worst approaches in mlb? 

Apropos of nothing 

Some horrifying Baez numbers from The Athletic today, although nothing surprising compared to the eye test. 

"Javy versus sliders, according to Baseball Savant: .113, with a (gulp) 51-percent whiff rate.

• Javy’s chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone: 47.5 percent, second-worst in baseball.

• Javy’s percentage of swings that whiffed: 36.1, second-worst in the AL behind human air conditioner Joey Gallo."

Oof

Hutchinson is the new Goodrum to me. This guy has zero future and will likely be out of organized baseball within a year. There isn't any young guy or veteran coming back from injury with some potential on the planet who could take these starts? 

I'm coming around on wasting pas/ip being one of the dumbest things an organization can do. What if we'd given Paredes all the at bats wasted on journeyman nobodies the last two years? 

Other than controlling the free agency clock, giving playing time to useless and more expensive players just seems like throwing a bone to the player's association 

On 6/5/2022 at 12:43 PM, Tiger337 said:

That's OK.  Buddha took care of that for you.

You are negative, but you are also usually accurate.  So, that's good.  

 

In the interest of less negativity, I think the Tigers got deeply unlucky with the ball changes that killed opposite field power, when almost all of our usable hitters have such power 

That said, a smarter organization probably wouldn't have invested so many resources over a twenty year period on an endless parade of high strikeout low obp guys who would be ruined by any changes to the home run happy era of baseball 

19 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Pyro makes an appearance!  Welcome back.  

I didn't want to come back with an overly negative post last year about how their were probably a lot of fluke performances, so instead, I waited to come back with an overly negative post damning the entire organization this year.

That's called "self-improvement".

The roster mostly stinks and a lot of the players who don't stink are injured. I would rather blame the owner/management that foolishly decided this was a win now year (but didn't invest the money to actually win) than the manager stuck with the abomination they've inflicted upon him.