Bobrob's 2026 Preseason Predictions

[bobrob2004]

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #1 – Tarik Daniel Skubal

For the second year in a row, Tarik Skubal was the best pitcher in the American League and won his second Cy Young Award.  Since 2023, Skubal has had the highest fWAR, 15.9, despite only pitching a half a season in 2023.  He’s also second in ERA during that time frame, 2.39, only behind Paul Skenes’ 1.96.  Also, during the last three seasons, Skubal has 38 wins, a K/9 of 10.99, a BB/9 of 1.58, and a HR/9 of 0.71.  The Tigers haven’t seen this kind of consistency and dominance since Justin Verlander in his prime (more on him later).

Skubal has five pitches and just like in 2024, he threw his curveball exclusively against right-handed batters in 2025.  One interesting stat is that he threw his changeup more often than any other pitch last year, according to Baseball Savant.  This is unusual because normally the fastball is the pitch most often thrown for a pitcher (like it was for Skubal in 2023 and 2024).

Changeup: 31.4%

4-seam Fastball: 29.3%

Sinker: 23.9%

Slider: 12.5%

Curveball: 2.8%

According to Statcast, Skubal’s changeup value is 26.8, not only making it the best changeup in all of baseball but making it one of the best single pitches in all of baseball; only Bran Woo’s fastball (26.1 pitch value) came close to Skubal’s changeup value.  Opponents batted .154 against Skubal’s changeup and 110 of his strikeouts ended with the changeup, so it makes sense that he would throw it more often.

One notable trend over the last few seasons is his groundball rate:

2023: 51.6% GB%

2024: 45.7% GB%

2025: 41.0% GB%

Normally, I would be concerned over the drop of this rate as I love high ground ball rates as they do the least amount of damage.  However, it hasn’t affected Skubal at all.  His ERA (2.39 in 2024 and 2.21 in 2025) and FIP (2.49 in 2024 and 2.45 in 2025) remain low.  Entering his age 29 season, he is still in his prime years, so keep doing what you’re doing.

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

FGDC – 200 IP | 14-7 W/L | 2.67 ERA | 0.98 WHIP | 245 K | 40 BB

Steamer – 200 IP | 14-9 W/L | 2.80 ERA | 1.02 WHIP | 243 K | 44 BB

ZiPS DC – 199 IP | 14-5 W/L | 2.54 ERA | 0.95 WHIP | 244 K | 37 BB

ATC – 188 IP | 14-7 W/L | 2.72 ERA | 0.96 WHIP | 228 K | 38 BB

THE BAT X – 188 IP | 15-7 W/L | 2.58 ERA | 0.94 WHIP | 233 K | 37 BB

OOPSY – 205 IP | 15-7 W/L | 2.55 ERA | 0.99 WHIP | 252 K | 45 BB

RotoChamp – 192 IP | 14-7 W/L | 2.67 ERA | 0.98 WHIP | 234 K | 40 BB

CBS Sports – 189 IP | 13-6 W/ L | 2.81 ERA | 1.06 WHIP | 226 K | 44 BB

ESPN – 201 IP | 17 W | 2.73 ERA | 0.94 WHIP | 253 K | 38 BB

My Prediction:

2025 Prediction – 198 2/3 IP | 17-6 W/L | 2.54 ERA | 0.921 WHIP | 244 K | 35 BB

2025 Actual – 195 1/3 IP | 13-6 W/L | 2.21 ERA | 0.891 WHIP | 241 K | 33 BB

 

2026 Prediction – 195 1/3 IP | 19-4 W/L | 2.30 ERA | 0.875 WHIP | 248 K | 32 BB

[bobrob2004]

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #2 – Riley Alan Greene

Riley Greene had what many would consider a career year in 2025.  He had career highs in home runs (36), runs batted in (111), and slugging percentage (.493) while getting his second All-Star appearance (first time starting) and winning his first Silver Slugger Award.  However, he also led the league in strikeouts (201).  There were also several stats that were not as good as they were in 2024.

2024: .827 OPS | 134 wRC+ | 3.9 fWAR

2025: .806 OPS | 121 wRC+ | 2.9 fWAR

Greene did play in more games (157, a career high) and had a significantly better first half of the season as fatigue may have been a factor as the season went on.  He only batted .195/.250/.368 the last month of the season.

First Half: 397 PA | .284/.335/.544 | 6.0% HR% | 31.5% K%

Second Half: 258 PA | .218/.279/.415 | 4.7% HR% | 29.5% K%

Strikeouts are a major concern for Greene as he surpassed 30 percent strikeout rate for the first time in his career last year (30.7 percent).  Greene has stated that he is going to change his mindset for 2026 as he felt like he was swinging at everything trying to hit a home run.  And the stats back this up. His overall swing rate went over 50 percent for the first time last year (52.6 percent) and he chased 32.3 percent of pitches out of the strike zone (24.0 percent in 2024).  As a result, his walk rate fell to 7.0 percent in 2025 compared to a career high 11.0 percent in 2024. 

Riley Greene is entering his fifth season with the Tigers in 2026, so it’s easy to forget that he is only entering his age-25 season.  His best season likely hasn’t even happened yet.  The fact that he sees a flaw in his game and is willing to adjust it shows maturity for someone his age.  His home run rate may suffer, but his overall stats should improve if he can get back to the plate discipline that he showed in 2024.

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

FGDC – 584 AB | .264/.333/.477 | 29 HR | 97 RBI | 3 SB | 58 BB | 176 K

Steamer – 521 AB | .260/.331/.467 | 25 HR | 82 RBI | 3 SB | 52 BB | 158 K

ZiPS DC – 586 AB | .268/.334/.487 | 30 HR | 103 RBI | 3 SB | 57 BB | 177 K

ATC – 565 AB | .257/.327/.463 | 28 HR | 89 RBI | 4 SB | 56 BB | 176 K

THE BAT X – 562 AB | .247/.321/.447 | 27 HR | 83 RBI | 4 SB | 58 BB | 182 K

OOPSY – 583 AB | .270/.339/.486 | 30 HR | 92 RBI | 5 SB | 59 BB | 175 K

RotoChamp – 568 AB | .261/.330/.468 | 28 HR | 90 RBI | 4 SB | 57 BB | 175 K

CBS Sports – 548 AB | .270/.335/.505 | 31 HR | 95 RBI | 3 SB | 50 BB | 176 K

ESPN – 588 AB | .255/.318/.469 | 30 HR | 93 RBI | 3 SB | 52 BB | 189 K

My Prediction:

2025 Prediction – 536 AB | .284/.377/.526 | 29 HR | 84 RBI | 5 SB | 78 BB | 158 K

2025 Actual – 600 AB | .258/.313/.493 | 36 HR | 111 RBI | 2 SB | 46 BB | 201 K

 

2026 Prediction – 591 AB | .272/.337/.508 | 33 HR | 102 RBI | 2 SB | 56 BB | 174 K

[bobrob2004]

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #3 – Framber Valdez

After a pretty calm off-season, the Tigers surprised most everyone by signing the best free agent available at the time by agreeing to terms with Framber Valdez at three years and $115 million.  Valdez will reunite with manager A.J. Hinch and fellow pitcher Justin Verlander in 2026. 

Framber Valdez has been one of the better pitchers in baseball since becoming a permanent fixture in Houston’s rotation in 2020.  Since 2020, Valdez is fifth in innings pitched (973), tied with Max Fried with the most wins (73), and is sixth in fWAR (20.3).  Also, since 2020, he has an ERA of 3.32, an FIP of 3.36, a 23.8 percent strikeout rate, and an 8.0 percent walk rate.  He has placed top 10 in Cy Young voting three times and won a World Series with Verlander in Houston in 2022.  He has been consistent and durable throughout his career and combined with Tarik Skubal, should make one of the best 1-2 punches in all of baseball.

Valdez’s ERA was slightly higher in 2025 than it has been in previous years.  However, his FIP has been consistent, so it may have just been a case of bad luck.

2022 – 201 1/3 IP | 2.82 ERA | 3.06 FIP

2023 – 198 IP | 3.45 ERA | 3.50 FIP

2024 – 176 1/3 IP | 2.91 ERA | 3.25 FIP

2025 – 192 IP | 3.66 ERA | 3.37 FIP

Valdez throws mostly a sinker, curveball and changeup.  His sinker is his best pitch, and he throws it about 45 percent of the time.  According to Statcast, his curveball went from an above average pitch (12.9 runs above average in 2024) to just an average pitch (0.2 runs below average in 2025).  However, batters still only batted .193 against this pitch according to Baseball Savant (with a .298 slugging against).  His expected batting average against this pitch was .163 (and an expected .240 slugging against), so again, there might be some bad luck here.  In 2024, batters hit .121 against his curveball (with a .187 slugging against).

Valdez’s strikeout rate has been very consistent throughout his career, around 23-24 percent. His walk rate was a bit high in 2025, 8.5 percent, compared to 7.8 percent in 2024 and 7.1 percent in 2023.  He is one of the best at preventing home runs (0.7 HR/9 in 2025), however, it should be noted that he had a league leading 12 wild pitches last season.

There are two split stats that are notable.  One is his home/away and the other is home/road.  He was much better at home last year (not surprising as most pitchers are) and he was much better in the first half of the season (again, most pitchers are due to fatigue).

Home – 94 1/3 IP | 2.58 ERA | 9.7 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9

Away – 97 2/3 IP | 4.70 ERA | 7.8 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9

First Half – 121 IP | 2.75 ERA | 9.3 K/9 | 3.0 BB/9

Second Half – 71 IP | 5.20 ERA | 7.9 K/9 | 3.4 BB/9

Valdez is entering his age 32 season, so he’s likely at the end of his prime years.  I’m anticipating his ERA to go back down, although it may not be under 3.00 again.  As long as he can improve his curveball and walk rate, he should get back to his career norms.  And who knows how the ABS Challenge System is going to impact his numbers this year.  I’m also confident that pitching coach Chris Fetter will keep him on track.

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

FGDC – 195 IP | 13-10 W/L | 3.41 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 180 K | 65 BB

Steamer – 190 IP | 12-10 W/L | 3.44 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 176 K | 62 BB

ZiPS DC – 200 IP | 15-9 W/L | 3.39 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 185 K | 67 BB

ATC – 187 IP | 13-10 W/L | 3.49 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 174 K | 61 BB

THE BAT X – 187 IP | 13-9 W/L | 3.33 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | 170 K | 60 BB

OOPSY – 194 IP | 13-9 W/L | 3.52 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 181 K | 65 BB

RotoChamp – 186 IP | 13-9 W/L | 3.48 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 234 K | 40 BB

CBS Sports – 185 IP | 14-10 W/ L | 3.89 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 172 K | 57 BB

ESPN – 198 IP | 15 W | 3.50 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 189 K | 70 BB

My Prediction:

2025 Prediction – N/A

2025 Actual – 192 IP | 13-11 W/L | 3.66 ERA | 1.245 WHIP | 187 K | 68 BB

 

2026 Prediction – 196 1/3 IP | 15-9 W/L | 3.39 ERA | 1.161 WHIP | 192 K | 66 BB

[bobrob2004]

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #4 – Spencer Enochs Torkelson

In 2023, Spencer Torkelson seemed to break out hitting .233/.313/.446 with 31 home runs, 94 RBI with an above average 9.8 percent walk rate.  However, in 2024, he struggled by hitting .201/.266/.300 with just four home runs in 230 plate appearances before getting sent down to AAA.  After getting called up, he finished 2024 strong, hitting .248/.338/.444, and six home runs in his final 151 plate appearances.  However, he wasn’t guaranteed a spot for the 2025 roster as Colt Keith was named the new starting first baseman before the season began.  Torkelson did hit his way into the lineup, eventually reclaiming first base while hitting .240/.333/.456, 31 home runs and 78 RBI in 649 plate appearances last year.

Torkelson’s power did start to dwindle as the season wore on, though.  He hit 21 of his home runs in the first half of the season, showing significantly more power than in the second half of the season.

First Half – 383 PA | .234/.337/.489 | 5.5% HR% | 11.5% BB% | 24.0% K%

Second Half – 266 PA | .248/.327/.412 | 3.8% HR% | 10.5% BB% | 28.9% K%

However, his batting average did improve in the second half.  Maybe he was sacrificing power for a higher average?  Or maybe it was just luck?  According to Baseball Savant, his expected batting average was only .226 last year compared to .240 that he actually hit.  And just like Riley Greene, the strikeouts are a major concern, and he struck out almost 30% of the time in the second half.

Torkelson shows a lot of signs of a typical power hitter, including a flyball rate of over 50 percent.  For both 2023 and 2025, he had a HR/FB rate of 15.0 percent.  He also pulled the ball almost 50 percent of the time last year and 21 of his home runs were hit to left field. 

Torkelson is entering his age 27 season, right about the time players enter their prime.  Unfortunately, I don’t really see much improvement from him this year.  I think he is who he is – someone with a lot of power, low batting average, a high walk rate, but also a high strikeout rate.  If he can duplicate his 118 wRC+ again, that’s a major plus to the lineup, even if his defensive stats are way below average.   

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

FGDC – 562 AB | .235/.324/.445 | 29 HR | 89 RBI | 2 SB | 69 BB | 167 K

Steamer – 501 AB | .228/.320/.425 | 24 HR | 73 RBI | 2 SB | 63 BB | 151 K

ZiPS DC – 564 AB | .242/.329/.465 | 31 HR | 96 RBI | 2 SB | 68 BB | 165 K

ATC – 538 AB | .232/.319/.435 | 27 HR | 79 RBI | 2 SB | 64 BB | 64 K

THE BAT X – 539 AB | .229/.316/.428 | 26 HR | 81 RBI | 2 SB | 64 BB | 158 K

OOPSY – 562 AB | .237/.327/.429 | 26 HR | 85 RBI | 2 SB | 70 BB | 162 K

RotoChamp – 544 AB | .235/.324/.439 | 27 HR | 83 RBI | 2 SB | 66 BB | 161 K

CBS Sports – 489 AB | .247/.338/.460 | 25 HR | 70 RBI | 2 SB | 60 BB | 149 K

ESPN – 588 AB | .243/.331/.461 | 32 HR | 81 RBI | 2 SB | 72 BB | 171 K

My Prediction:

2025 Prediction – N/A

2025 Actual – 563 AB | .240/.333/.456 | 31 HR | 78 RBI | 2 SB | 72 BB | 169 K

 

2026 Prediction – 563 AB | .227/.323/.437 | 29 HR | 75 RBI | 1 SB | 75 BB | 172 K

[bobrob2004]

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #5 – Kerry William Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter has done nothing but hit since his debut in 2022.  He is a career .268/.322/.507 hitter with a 128 wRC+, 5.3 percent home run rate, 3.9 percent walk rate, and a 22.8 percent strikeout rate.  Last year, however, he had lower rate stats than in previous years.

2023 - 459 PA | .278/.340/.471 | 121 wRC+

2024 – 296 PA | .284/.345/.587 | 158 wRC+

2025 – 464 PA | .252/.291/.497 | 115 wRC+

He did hit a career-high 26 home runs in 2025, but his HR/FB rate was down to 17.3 percent.; it was at 20.9 percent in 2024 and 18.5 percent in 2023.  Over 45 percent of his balls in play were fly balls, also a career high.  He may have been trying too much to hit home runs, which resulted in more fly balls, but also a lower batting average.

Another area of concern for Carpenter in 2025, was his walk rate.  He only walked 18 times last year, down from 22 walks in 2024 in 168 fewer plate appearances.  He did improve on his strikeout rate, though.

2023 – 7.0% BB% | 25.1% K%

2024 – 7.4% BB% | 25.3% K%

2025 – 3.9% BB% | 22.8% K%

Carpenter also seemed to have a harder time hitting the off-speed pitch in 2025.

2023 – 101 AB | .267 AVG | .455 SLG | 5 HR  

2024 – 58 AB | .293 AVG | .672 SLG | 6 HR

2025 – 99 AB | .242 AVG | .404 SLG | 4 HR

Finally, Carpenter has always hit better against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching.  Here are his splits for 2025:

Vs. RHP – 373 AB | .257/.300/.512

Vs. LHP – 60 AB | .217/.238/.400

Manager A.J. Hinch likes playing matchups and sitting Carpenter down against left-handed pitching gives a great opportunity to get someone else playing time, like Jahmai Jones, who hit .288/.393/.577 vs. lefties in 2025 in 122 plate appearances.  Carpenter did get three hits in the playoffs against left-handed pitching, including a clutch home run against Gabe Speier that gave the Tigers a 2-1 lead in Game 5 of the ALDS against Seattle.  However, that’s a small sample and who knows if Hinch will change his game plan in 2026 to include Carpenter getting more at bats against left-handed pitching.

For me, the biggest key for Carpenter is the walk rate.  He has shown to have a walk rate of around 7 percent, which is slightly below league average.  If he can get it back up, I think the batting average will also improve.  He may lose a bit of home run power, but his overall stats will be better.  He’s still under 30, so he could potentially have his best season yet.  As far as playing time goes, I personally think Hinch will continue to platoon Carpenter and sit him against left-handed pitching, even though I think he deserves to see what he can do given 500+ plate appearances.   If he does get that many, his overall stats may suffer, but we may get a moment similar to that Game 5 against Seattle.

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

FGDC – 449 AB | .258/.314/.481 | 24 HR | 78 RBI | 2 SB | 32 BB | 116 K

Steamer – 385 AB | .253/.310/.472 | 20 HR | 60 RBI | 2 SB | 28 BB | 100 K

ZiPS DC – 450 AB | .262/.318/.491 | 25 HR | 85 RBI | 2 SB | 32 BB | 116 K

ATC – 438 AB | .253/.308/.474 | 24 HR | 70 RBI | 2 SB | 30 BB | 114 K

THE BAT X – 435 AB | .250/.309/.474 | 23 HR | 69 RBI | 3 SB | 31 BB | 114 K

OOPSY – 449 AB | .257/.312/.469 | 23 HR | 69 RBI | 3 SB | 31 BB | 114 K

RotoChamp – 440 AB | .255/.317/.470 | 23 HR | 71 RBI | 2 SB | 31 BB | 114 K

CBS Sports – 467AB | .268/.323/.518 | 28 HR | 73 RBI | 3 SB | 33 BB | 125 K

ESPN – 487 AB | .251/.300/.474 | 26 HR | 72 RBI | 1 SB | 27 BB | 124 K

My Prediction:

2025 Prediction – 454 AB | .262/.325/.526 | 28 HR | 70 RBI | 1 SB | 36 BB | 125 K

2025 Actual – 433 AB | .252/.291/.497 | 26 HR | 62 RBI | 1 SB | 18 BB | 106 K

 

2026 Prediction – 433 AB | .270/.328/.513 | 26 HR | 67 RBI | 1 SB | 31 BB | 112 K

[bobrob2004]

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #6 – Jack Rafe Flaherty

Jack Flaherty’s 2025 season was disappointing compared to his 2024 season, in which he won a World Series after the Tigers traded him to the Dodgers.

2024 – 162 IP | 3.17 ERA | 29.9% K% | 5.9% BB% | 3.48 FIP

2025 – 161 IP | 4.64 ERA | 27.6% K% | 8.7% BB% | 3.85 FIP

Flaherty decided to exercise his $20 million player option and stay in Detroit for the 2026 season instead of hitting Free Agency again. 

The stat that immediately jumps out is his walk rate.  After a career-low 5.9 percent in 2024, Flaherty’s walk rate jumped back up to his career normal 8.7 percent in 2025.  More walks, more baserunners, more chances to score, higher ERA.  The plate discipline stats do show that hitters were swinging less out of the strike zone (30.3 percent compared to 33.3 percent in 2024) and had less overall swinging strikes (11.3 percent compared to 13.3 percent in 2024), however his called strikes were exactly the same in the last two years (18 percent).  He still remains an above average strikeout pitcher; his 10.5 K/9 in 2025 was fifth in all of baseball among pitchers with at least 150 innings.  It’ll be interesting to see if the ABS challenge system will have any impact on his numbers.

Flaherty throws mainly a four-seam fastball, a knuckle curve, and a slider.  He’ll throw a changeup, but almost exclusively to left-handed batters.  His knuckle curve was his best pitch in 2024 and had the highest value of any knuckle curve in baseball.  However, that value dropped to a below average pitch for him 2025, despite throwing it more often than his slider for the first time in his career.  Here’s a breakdown of how hitters did against his knuckle curve:

2024 – .164 AVG | .219 SLG | 1 HR | 2440 spin

2025 - .205 AVG | .380 SLG | 6 HR | 2389 spin

His expected batting average against was at .177 in 2025, so maybe there was some bad luck involved?  Maybe he needs to throw his slider more to make his knuckle curve more effective?  I’m no expert on spin rates, but less spin isn’t considered a good thing either.

There are some stats here that imply that Flaherty’s 2025 may have had some back luck in them.  His FIP was almost 0.80 runs lower than his ERA and his expected batting average against (.233) was almost identical to 2024 (.232), however his inflated walk rate is a concern as well as his knuckle curve.  Flaherty is still only entering his age 30 season, so he is still considered in his prime years.  A bounce-back season is very possible, but can he get back to his 2024 numbers? 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

FGDC – 160 IP | 11-10 W/L | 4.01 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 176 K | 58 BB

Steamer – 163 IP | 10-10 W/L | 3.89 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 177 K | 57 BB

ZiPS DC – 157 IP | 11-10 W/L | 4.14 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 175 K | 59 BB

ATC – 157 IP | 10-10 W/L | 4.05 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 172 K | 54 BB

THE BAT X – 157 IP | 10-10 W/L | 4.06 ERA | 1.20 WHIP | 170 K | 49 BB

OOPSY – 161 IP | 11-9 W/L | 3.79 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 175 K | 56 BB

RotoChamp – 157 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.96 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 172 K | 54 BB

CBS Sports – 139 IP | 11-8 W/ L | 3.43 ERA | 1.11 WHIP | 158 K | 37 BB

ESPN – 154 IP | 10 W | 4.15 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 174 K | 55 BB

My Prediction:

2025 Prediction – 182 1/3 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.41 ERA | 1.015 WHIP | 225 K | 36 BB

2025 Actual – 161 IP | 8-15 W/L | 4.64 ERA | 1.280 WHIP | 188 K | 59 BB

 

2026 Prediction – 161 IP | 10-11 W/L | 4.25 ERA | 1.292 WHIP | 184 K | 58 BB

[bobrob2004]

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #7 – Francis Dillon Dingler

Dillion Dingler took over for Jake Rogers and became the primary catcher in 2025.  He had a decent batting average (.278), showed some power (13 home runs, .147 ISO) and had the highest fWAR of any Tigers position player (4.1) thanks to above average defense that also awarded him a Gold Glove.  Can he continue this into 2026 or will he have a sophomore slump?

Having only one year of data, it’s hard to predict because you don’t know what is luck and what can be repeated.  For example, Dingler’s BABIP is .345.  This is a pretty high number.  Not impossible, but usually only the elite hitters are this high (Miguel Cabrera’s BABIP was .340 for his career).  Yet, Dingler has had a pretty high BABIP throughout his minor league career:

2022 (AA) - .335 BABIP

2023 (A, AA, AAA) - .327 BABIP

2024 (AAA) - .337 BABIP

Another likely regression is his line drive rate of 28.2 percent, the highest of any Major League hitter with at least 400 plate appearances (Zach McKinstry was second with a 26.0 percent line drive rate.  This is all of baseball, not just the Tigers).  Dingler never had this high of a line drive rate in the minor leagues, but was close in 2024.

2022 (AA) – 22.4% LD%

2023 (A, AA, AAA) – 18.1% LD%

2024 (AAA) – 27.5% LD%

According to FanGraphs, Dingler’s batting average on line drives was .747.  Usually, the league average is around .720.  Considering all of this, I do expect a lower overall batting average from Dingler in 2026.

One area of improvement that I can see from Dingler is his 4.9 percent walk rate, which has been a lot higher in the minor leagues.

2022 (AA) – 10.0% BB% | 31.9% K% | 13.9% HR/FB

2023 (A, AA, AAA) – 11.0% BB% | 27.6% | 17.0% HR/FB

2024 (AAA) – 10.0% BB% | 20.3% K% | 20.2% HR/FB

2025 – 4.9% BB% | 23.5% BB% | 11.1% HR/FB

Lastly, I want to look at his splits.  Sometimes a hitter can get off to a hot streak right away, but then cool off as pitchers figure him out.

First Half – 265 PA | .265/.306/.414 | 3.4% BB% | 23.8% K% | 3.0% HR%

Second Half – 204 PA | .296/.355/.441 | 6.9% BB% | 23.0% K% | 2.5% HR%

Dingler had the opposite of this, better numbers almost across the board in the second half last year.  June was his worst month, when he hit .209/.239/.358.  Dingler’s strong finish is encouraging and hopefully it’ll carry through to this season.

Again, it’s really difficult to figure out a prediction on essentially just one year of Major League data.  The areas that will regress could be evened out by the areas where he genuinely is improving.  He could repeat, improve to a career year, or regress down to a below average hitter.  In cases like this, I’m usually conservative.  

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

FGDC – 389 AB | .245/.306/.404 | 13 HR | 55 RBI | 1 SB | 29 BB | 107 K

Steamer – 296 AB | .245/.305/.404 | 10 HR | 37 RBI | 1 SB | 22 BB | 79 K

ZiPS DC – 390 AB | .244/.308/.405 | 13 HR | 61 RBI | 1 SB | 29 BB | 109 K

ATC – 382 AB | .242/.300/.395 | 12 HR | 49 RBI | 1 SB | 26 BB | 105 K

THE BAT X – 383 AB | .241/.296/.385 | 11 HR | 47 RBI | 2 SB | 24 BB | 104 K

OOPSY – 388 AB | .243/.305/.403 | 14 HR | 49 RBI | 1 SB | 28 BB | 107 K

RotoChamp – 384 AB | .242/.295/.396 | 12 HR | 50 RBI | 1 SB | 27 BB | 105 K

CBS Sports – 404 AB | .267/.327/.426 | 13 HR | 54 RBI | 1 SB | 29 BB | 109 K

ESPN – 418 AB | .268/.331/.428 | 14 HR | 57 RBI | 0 SB | 33 BB | 117 K

My Prediction:

2025 Prediction – N/A

2025 Actual – 435 AB | .278/.327/.425 | 13 HR | 57 RBI | 0 SB | 23 BB | 110 K

 

2026 Prediction – 408 AB | .238/.307/.385 | 11 HR | 54 RBI | 0 SB | 31 BB | 104 K

[bobrob2004]

Bobrob’s 2026 Preseason Prediction #8 – Gleyber David Torres

In a somewhat surprising move, Gleyber Torres decided to accept the Tigers’ qualifying offer of $22.025 million for 2026 instead of testing the Free Agent market.  The All-Star had a very good first year with the Tigers, hitting .256/.358/.387 with a 113 rWC+ and 2.6 fWAR and might have gotten a multi-year deal in the open market but decided to stay another year with the Tigers. 

The first thing that I notice from Torres last year were the walk and strikeout rates, which were a big improvement from 2024.

2023 – 10.0% BB% | 14.6% K% | 12.6% HR/FB%

2024 – 9.8% BB% | 20.5% K% | 8.1% HR/FB%

2025 – 13.5% BB% | 16.1% K% | 9.0% HR/FB%

According to Statcast, Torres only chased 17.2 percent of pitches out of the strike zone; only Juan Soto had a lower chase rate at 16.2 percent.  Hopefully this isn’t a fluke, and he can carry this into 2026.  The power numbers are down from what he did early in his career, but if he can continue with these plate discipline numbers, he’ll still contribute a lot.

Another thing of note is his first half/second half splits.  He started out strong but really struggled in the second half.

First Half – 359 PA | .281/.387/.425 | 14.2% BB% | 12.8% K% | 2.5% HR%

Second Half – 269 PA | .223/.320/.339 | 12.6% BB% | 20.4% K% | 2.6% HR%

It was later revealed that he had a hernia that he was playing through that required off-season surgery.  It’ll be interesting to see if Torres can keep up his first half numbers over a full healthy season.

Even with the injury, there are signs that Torres was having just plain bad luck.  According to Baseball Savant, his expected numbers were better than his real numbers.

Real – .256 AVG | .387 SLG | .332 wOBA

Expected – .269 xBA | .462 xSLG | .363 xwOBA

Torres is still under 30, right in the middle of his prime years.  Even though he’s unlikely going to get his power numbers back (I’d be shocked if he hit 30 homers again), he is still a valuable hitter and whatever adjustments he made in the first half of 2025, I hope that continues for 2026.   

 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

FGDC – 572 AB | .260/.347/.407 | 18 HR | 72 RBI | 6 SB | 74 BB | 113 K

Steamer – 555 AB | .260/.346/.406 | 18 HR | 66 RBI | 5 SB | 71 BB | 109 K

ZiPS DC – 571 AB | .261/.348/.409 | 19 HR | 75 RBI | 6 SB | 75 BB | 113 K

ATC – 554 AB | .257/.343/.401 | 17 HR | 68 RBI | 5 SB | 71 BB | 109 K

THE BAT X – 554 AB | .256/.340/.398 | 17 HR | 69 RBI | 7 SB | 70 BB | 110 K

OOPSY – 576 AB | .263/.347/.410 | 19 HR | 74 RBI | 6 SB | 72 BB | 111 K

RotoChamp – 561 AB | .260/.346/.408 | 18 HR | 70 RBI | 6 SB | 72 BB | 110 K

CBS Sports – 495 AB | .261/.343/.394 | 14 HR | 62 RBI | 4 SB | 61 BB | 109 K

ESPN – 537 AB | .259/.353/.399 | 17 HR | 67 RBI | 4 SB | 79 BB | 111 K

My Prediction:

2025 Prediction – 592 AB | .260/.335/.395 | 12 HR | 66 RBI | 15 SB | 67 BB | 134 K

2025 Actual – 532 AB | .256/.358/.387 | 16 HR | 74 RBI | 4 SB | 85 BB | 101 K

 

2026 Prediction – 552 AB | .268/.365/.411 | 16 HR | 77 RBI | 4 SB | 85 BB | 104 K