bobrob2004

Don Kelly, Brandon Inge, and Shane Halter.

A.I. Artificial Intelligence. I used Copilot to generate the image.

AI doesn't like how the Tigers are playing.

Can you tell that this image is AI generated?

It's strange. I have one every year.

Twenty plus a little.

I'll be very sad if I can't watch Tiger baseball on my birthday.

I made more! Rain out today, so if you want something to do. https://connectionsplus.io/game/HxGs1o https://connectionsplus.io/game/VtGXsV https://connectionsplus.io/game/U8oOni https://connectionsplus.io/game/aHGMEh https://connectionsplus.io/game/MMYNyu https://connectionsplus.io/game/bhlJho https://connectionsplus.io/game/sypyBD https://connectionsplus.io/game/jhUoNe https://connectionsplus.io/game/LlvTYU

If you don't know what Connections is, it's a NYT game where you have to create 4 groups of 4 that share a common category. There is a site where you can create custom ones. I have created two of them with a baseball theme and I have ideas for others. It's like Immaculate Grid + Connections! https://connectionsplus.io/game/JYyIvN https://connectionsplus.io/game/kV96b9 Let me know what you think. Share your results. Create your own.

Anyone play NYT Connections? I created a baseball themed one: https://connectionsplus.io/game/JYyIvN

Hey, one of my predictions already happened!

That wraps up another year of my dumb predictions. Come back in October so we can see how wrong I am.

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #15 – Casey Arthur Mize Normally I would only do five starting pitchers, but the Tigers have six starters that I think will have a significant contribution to this team this year. Since Casey Mize will actually start the season in the rotation with Matt Manning demoted to AAA, I can’t skip doing Mize’s prediction (although there is a chance that Mize will see some time in Toledo at some point during the season). The Tigers have a depth in starting pitching, which also includes the likes of Sawyer Gipson-Long, Beau Brieskie, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden, Brant Hurter, and Jackson Jobe, to name a few, all of whom could make starts for the Tigers this year due to injuries, poor performances, or a trade or two. Eventually, everything will work itself out. Casey Mize was the first overall pick by the Detroit Tigers in 2018 and made his Major League debut in 2020, starting seven games with a 6.99 ERA in a little over 28 innings, skipping over AAA altogether. Maybe he wasn’t quite ready for the Majors yet, but 2020 was a weird year without any Minor League games, so if the Tigers wanted Mize to pitch it had to be in the Majors. In 2021, Mize started 30 games with a 3.71 ERA, with a team leading 150 1/3 innings, giving Tiger fans hope for what may come in the future. However, he only started two games in 2022 and then was placed on the Injured List, eventually having Tommy John surgery and he hasn’t pitched until Spring Training this year. Casey Mize’s numbers are kind of similar to Matt Manning’s numbers in that luck was likely on his side: 2021 – 6.7% BB% | 19.3% K% | 16.2% HR/FB% | 3.71 ERA | 4.92 xERA | 4.71 FIP Among those with at least 150 innings in 2021, Mize was 13th lowest in strikeout rate and 6th highest in home run to flyball ratio. His walk rate was above average, but control was an issue during Spring Training, which could be a factor in 2024 after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Altogether, his FIP was a run higher than his ERA in 2021. One encouraging stat was his groundball rate was at 48.1 percent. Casey Mize throws a four-seam fastball, slider, sinker, splitter, and knuckle curve. Numbers are from 2021: 4-Seamer – 29.3% Usage | .226 BAA | .474 SLG Against Slider – 28.1% Usage | .194 BAA | .335 SLG Against Sinker – 22.7% Usage | .322 BAA | .557 SLG Against Splitter – 13.2% Usage | .203 BAA | .304 SLG Against Knuckle Curve – 6.7% Usage | .133 BAA | .200 SLG Against He had the most trouble with the sinker in 2021 and he only threw it 3 times in his 10 innings in 2022, so maybe he was phasing it out in favor of throwing his fastball/splitter more often. Overall, opponents had a .254 batting average of balls in play against Mize that year, which will be very hard to sustain. Mize throws his fastball around 93.5 MPH and just like Manning, had very good extension in 2021. Casey Mize needs to work on striking out guys more often, but also limiting the home runs (and walks may be an issue as well). It’s going to be even harder for Mize to make these adjustments after not pitching for almost 2 years; it usually takes one full year to get back to full efficiency. Mize is only entering his age-27 season, so he still has time to reach his full potential (and (he did have 20 strikeouts and allowed only 1 home run during Spring Training in 20 1/3 innings, but Spring Training stats should always be taken with a grain of salt). I think the Tigers are going to be more worried about his health this year to make sure he doesn’t have any setbacks, so I don’t expect much of an improvement. Hopefully I am wrong. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 127 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.63 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 103 K | 38 BB ZiPS DC – 114 IP | 5-7 W/L | 4.61 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 85 K | 33 BB THE BAT – 105 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.97 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 67 K | 32 BB ATC – 103 IP | 5-7 W/L | 4.50 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 80 K | 30 BB FGDC – 120 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.62 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 94 K | 36 BB RotoChamp – 109 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.62 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 81 K | 32 BB CBS Sports – 162 IP | 7-10 W/L | 3.89 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 152 K | 49 BB ESPN – 101 IP | 5 W | 4.19 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 67 K | 31 BB My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – N/A 2024 Prediction – 122 1/3 IP | 5-9 W/L | 4.71 ERA | 1.357 WHIP | 89 K | 43 BB

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #14 – Giovanny Urshela The Tigers’ third base production last year was .211/.294/.323 with a 72 wRC+ and a -1.0 fWAR. Only the New York Mets had a lower wRC+ (67) and both the Oakland Athletics (-1.3) and Mets (-2.6) had a lower fWAR. Needless to say, the Tigers needed an upgrade as they wait for prospect Jace Jung to be Major League ready. Enter free agent signee Gio Urshela. Gio Urshela has primarily been a third baseman throughout his career, but he played all over the infield last year as a utility player for the Los Angeles Angels. He has only been an everyday player a few times for the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins over his 8-year career. While I think he’ll be the main third baseman for the Tigers this year, A.J. Hinch may still use a patchwork of Zach McKinstry, Andy Ibanez, and Matt Veirling along with Urshela at third base as he loves the flexibility to use players at multiple positions. Gio Urshela had his best year in 2019 when he hit .314/.355/.534 with 21 home runs and a 133 OPS+. He had just as good of a year in the COVID short 2020 season with a 137 OPS+. However, he was never able to reach those levels again, hovering around league average over the last few seasons. 2021 – 442 PA | 4.5% BB% | 24.7% K% | .329 BABIP 2022 – 551 PA | 7.4% BB% | 17.4% K% | .326 BABIP 2023 – 228 PA | 4.4% BB% | 15.8% K% | .346 BABIP Only once has Gio Urshela been able to have a decent walk rate, 10.3 percent in 2020. Usually, it has been around 4.5 percent. Strikeouts have been all over the place; it was as high as 24.7 percent in 2021 and as low as 14.4 percent in 2020. The last two years, it has been a combined 16.9 percent in 779 plate appearances, so it is probably safe to say it’ll be below 20 percent again in 2024. The Tigers were 27th in batting average last year at .236. Riley Greene was the Tigers’ leader in batting average last year at .288 (in 416 plate appearances) and most regulars were below .270. Gio Urshela usually has an above average batting average, .285 in 2022 and .299 in 2023, so it will be nice to have another high batting average hitter in the lineup. However, his expected batting average was .268 in 2022 and .259 in 2023, so we will see if he can outperform it again this year. Now for the power numbers: 2021 – 15.1% HR/FB% | .152 ISO | 7.7% XBH% 2022 – 9.1% HR/FB% | .144 ISO | 7.8% XBH% 2023 – 3.6% HR/FB% | .075 ISO | 4.8% XBH% It is astounding how much of a decline Gio Urshela had in power last year. His power numbers were steadily declining after his 21-homer 2019 season, but they fell off a cliff in 2023, only hitting 2 home runs in 228 plate appearances. He is entering his age-32 season, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can bounce back in power or if this is going to be the new norm now that he is past his prime. Along with the uncertainty of Colt Keith at second base, the Tigers needed depth in the infield. While I think most Tiger fans will be happy with a repeat of his 92 wRC+, Urshela is showing signs of declining. We all saw how quickly someone can fall off with Jonathan Schoop. Hopefully Urshela’s decline in power isn’t too much of a concern. However, at $1.5 million, it’s worth the gamble, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Jace Jung is the starting third baseman by the end of the season (similar to when Parker Meadows took over for centerfield last year). Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 276 AB | .274/.323/.410 | 7 HR | 34 RBI | 2 SB | 19 BB | 55 K ZiPS DC – 306 AB | .280/.321/.409 | 7 HR | 35 RBI | 2 SB | 18 BB | 57 K THE BAT X – 285 AB | .268/.314/.400 | 7 HR | 35 RBI | 2 SB | 18 BB | 54 K ATC – 297 AB | .275/.320/.405 | 7 HR | 36 RBI | 2 SB | 19 BB | 57 K FGDC – 303 AB | .277/.322/.410 | 7 HR | 36 RBI | 2 SB | 19 BB | 59 K RotoChamp – 295 AB | .275/.318/.410 | 7 HR | 36 RBI | 2 SB | 19 BB | 57 K CBS Sports – 419 AB | .298/.342/.425 | 8 HR | 52 RBI | 3 SB | 29 BB | 82 K ESPN – 342 AB | .278/.316/.401 | 7 HR | 40 RBI | 1 SB | 20 BB | 63 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 214 AB | .299/.329/.374 | 2 HR | 24 RBI | 10 BB | 36 K 2024 Prediction – 347 AB | .277/.311/.375 | 6 HR | 43 RBI | 1 SB | 17 BB | 63 K