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JackPine

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Posts posted by JackPine

  1. 13 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

    A-Hah! Now I get it... you're just lying...

    Let's see: 

    Tarik Skubal - 9th round, 2018.

    Kerry Carpenter - 19th round, 2019.

    Beau Brieske - 27th round, 2019.

    Kyle Funkhauser - 4th round, 2016

    There are lots of others, but, yeah...

    Avila paid "NO ATTENTION" to the lower rounds.

    Please stop lying.

    2022: Javier Osorio, $2.2 million. Samuel Gil, $1.2 million, Josue Breceno $800K, Heison Sanchez $800K.

    2021: Christian Santana, $2.95 million, Abel Bastidas, $1.175 million.

    2020 (held off till 2021 due to pandemic)

    2019: Roberto Campos, $2.85 million.

    2018: Jose De La Cruz, $1.8 million, Adinso Reyes, $1.45 million.

    Represented, or underrepresented does NOT preclude them from signing international free agents. Whether you like that or not. Whether you like the signings or not.

     

    What?

    Avila traded Justin Wilson and Alex Avila for Jeimer Candelario (23 yo) and Isaac Paredes (18 yo). That was a trade for the future.

    Avila traded Michael Fulmer for Reese Olson (22 yo). That was a trade for the future.

    Avila traded Shane Greene for Joey Wentz (21 yo) and Travis Demeritte. That was a trade for the future.

    He had others too.

    Again... you're just lying.

     

    I see. No matter what Avila's players turn out to be, even if championship level... you're just going to call it luck in order to discredit Avila. Got it. That sounds like a political agenda/ political spin-doctoring. Not interested. This discussion is finished.

    Go ahead and call it whatever you want to.

    It was a rebuild.

    Like it, love it, or hate it, it was a rebuild.

    It was a rebuild, just a failed one

    • Like 2
  2. 1 hour ago, chasfh said:

    I did a whole FG fan post on this when Bryce Harper was on the market:

    https://community.fangraphs.com/the-income-tax-implications-of-bryce-harpers-choice-of-next-team/

    You will certainly enjoy just how utterly off I was with my prediction in the middle of it. 😁

    I dont pay income tax to the state i travel to for work, why do players pay income tax to the localities they play in during road games? 

    Taxes are complicated...

  3. 3 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

    I don't disagree with this--Chafin is a great example, as he wanted to be close to Ohio.  I seriously doubt that Correa circled Minneapolis on the map and said, "I really want to be there."  It came down to his best, and likely, only option.  If Correa's market this offseason is very different than last year's, he might take other things into consideration.  I don't think his prospects will be that much improved, if at all.  He's again in a crowded class of elite free agent shortstops, and there really aren't a lot of teams in need of one, depending on where everyone lands.

    We had the same idea at the same time?! 🤯

  4. 4 minutes ago, oblong said:

    Don't forget tax implications when considering "the most money". In some cases the money might be more in terms of contract but when you factor in the state and local taxes it might not be the most money for the player. 

    and every player is different.  Some might go closer to home.  Some might go to the highest bidder if there's not much difference in the organization because they want to do their part to lift the rising tide for the guys coming after them.  I don't think as a whole they will always go to the highest bidder.  Many if not most will.  But not all.

     

    Personally, once we're talking hundreds of millions I wouldn't care. It's more money than I'd ever know what to do with. I'd take 200M over 300M if it was the right place, people, location, culture etc. Maybe I'm an oddball but I'm guessing there are players that feel similarly.

    I know players have agents to pay, a legacy to build, a duty to the union and are competitive to their core but life isn't all about money and that has to be clear to at least SOME players. (Although, my guess is Correa isn't one of them.) Chafin is possibly a good example of this, especially of he opts in but even if he just resigns. He values being close to his farm and that may outweigh getting the best offer.

     

  5. 41 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

    to clarify, Jim Cowan always speaks for me.  He has my unconditional proxy on all of my personal affairs, including responding here.

    I do believe that Correa will/would sign with the Tigers if given the most attractive contract offer.  I also believe we are one of a few teams in a position to provide that to him, and have the need.  Most of the traditional big spenders don't have a need at SS.  Now, if any of the teams with free agent SS's (i.e., Red Sox, Dodgers, Braves), prefer Correa and pivot to him, I think we would be in the mix for the displaced SS (i.e., Swanson, Turner, Boegarts).  

    I also believe that no one, including Correa, would be short-sighted enough to get hung up on last season's performance.  A savvy agent and/or player would recognize that this is a team trying to win--we increased our payroll last season and made some very progressive hires at manager and in the front office.  Further, anyone with any reasonable intelligence would look at the Tigers and recognize that the team had a ton of bad luck in '22.

    All bets are off, though, if a player prefers a different geography.  Given that Correa signed in Minneapolis, which has a similar climate to Detroit, it shouldn't be an issue, though it was clear he had no other viable options last offseason.

    My point is that geography and/or perceptions of the market might factor in, but I don't think our W-L record last season will matter.

    Do you think players take into account how playing for higher profile organizations may affect their popularity and resulting earnings from endorsements?

  6. 15 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

    I would also be worried that his age 30 season, just completed, was outrageously superior to his entire previous body of work and only his rookie season was even close.  What changed?  Can he repeat it?  For the previous 4 years he is a .920 OPS guy with a lot of missed time.  I think I'm not in on this one for the amount of money that will be involved.

    Anything over 120 games in a season would have to be considered a bonus. 

  7. 13 minutes ago, oblong said:

    Tonight’s game 5 in jeopardy. Will reassess at 7. Radar shows a thin strip but it’s going north and north west right over the Bronx for a few hours according to the prediction. 

    If that happens, do you think Bieber would start on 3 days rest tomorrow?

  8. 1 hour ago, Shades of Deivi Cruz said:

    Gross. I want to see anything but that. LOL! 

    I was rooting for the Ms yesterday, but I have a hard time seeing how they bounce back from that loss. Just excruciating... 

    Me too, that they burned a lot of arms and have nothing but a demoralized feeling to show for it. 

    Cleveland's offense also makes it hard to see them moving past the Yankees. I'd be betting on another Yankee-Astro match up, so sick of it.

    On the other side, the nl looks much more interesting. The braves/Phillies series should be a ton of fun

  9. 11 hours ago, lordstanley said:

    Mets knocked out. Harsh for  101-win team, but they allowed themselves to get swept by Atlanta last weekend then we’re shut out on 1 hit 1 BB today. 

    Yup, ample opportunity to take control of the situation themselves. Can't blame the new playoff system for that. Kind of reminds me of the 2009 tigers

  10. 8 minutes ago, StatikIEV said:

    The problem with Lange is Haase.  Lange can't be our closer if Haase is our catcher.

    Lange's stuff (noteably the curve metrics and frequency) and propensity to work effectively low exposes Haase as not a major league quality catcher when receiving outlier pitches.  One of the shortcomings still in defensive ratings for catching is the evaluation metrics on specific pitch receiving and subsequent frequency modulation on pitch calling/results.

    As an example, Lange unbelievably lead the league in WP with 15...and in limited duty, 10 of those came via Haase.  It is/was so bad that in high leverage situations, pitch calling/location result (whether that be from Haase/bench or simply Lange not trusting Haase's receiving) changed to compensate for his shortcomings.  If you watch back the games, there is also an inordinate number of complete whiffs on catching pitches that should be caught when bases are empty.

    So IMO, Lange actually has much higher value than his metrics show, and he probably should be seriously considered as our closer, but you can't pull our catcher everytime he comes in late in the game.  Lange can never close if Haase is behind the plate.  The two really should never be our battery at any point.

    TL:DR We need to find another role for Haase if we want to keep his bat....he can't catch more than a handful of games a year as a back-up option   He is like the Baddoo of catchers...his stats look OK, as long as we squint at them, and situationally coddle his playing opportunities. 

    How do they fit Haase's bat into the lineup without letting him catch? If he's the non-primary catcher he could catch 1.5 games a week and dh 3 games a week (assuming Miggy is no longer the primary dh). Maybe play OF occasionally, does anyone trust him out there either?

  11. 16 hours ago, sabretooth said:

    Here's a sketch for what they could do in 2023

    (OPS+, WAR)

    Catcher: Haase, Rogers (100, 3) 

    1B: Tork (110, 2) 

    2B: Schoop (80, 1) 

    SS: Baez (100, 2) 

    3B: Kriedler/Candy (90, 1.5) g'bye Candy, hello Kriedler

    LF: Carpenter (105, 1.5) 

    CF: Greene (105, 2) 

    RF: Meadows (105, 1.5) - this is a 50/50 shot, depends on lots of unknowns

    DH: (could be an IF or OF): Free Agent (115, 3) - really need a good player who can play in the field....anywhere but 1B would work.....C, 2B, SS, 3B, OF

    Bench:

    - H. Castro, W. Castro, V. Reyes

    Coming up in late 2023/2024:

    - Dingler (C), Lipcius (3B), W. Perez (2B)

    SP:

    - E Rod (2 WAR)

    - Manning (1.5 WAR)

    - Free Agent (2 WAR)

    - Free Agent (2 WAR)

    The last SP spot would be the various dudes they have floating around (Hutch, Brieske, Faedo, Hill, Wentz, whoever....plus whatever healthy play they can get out of Skubal, Turnbull, Mize, etc.

    The bullpen would be whoever they can plug in from this year's team and the minors and cheap FAs to make it work.

    They must must must must get TWO **good** Starting Pitchers. No more Pinedas and other junk. These have to be guys who are healthy and can throw 30 starts and more than half of them are Quality Starts (6+ IP/3 Rs or less).

    They have to add at least one good bat, hopefully two.

    Tork, Greene, Carpenter, Kriedler -- at least three of these guys need to be a "hit"

    Manning needs to be a "hit".....they can't have ALL of their starting pitcher prospects from the last 7 years fail.

    Skubal needs to come back at some point and be decent or good again.

    They need a 50/50 hit ratio on Mize and Turnbull.

    When Miggy's contract is subtracted, they are more than $50M **under** the average team payroll. They need to spend ALL of that getting at least three good players.

    That can get them into the winning column in 2023 or at least 2024.

    It will require spending, player development, health, and luck. These are the usual ingredients for success.

    I wouldn't be shocked to see them rely on Turnbull more and only sign one legit starter and a few more minor league type guys

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