Screwball
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Posts posted by Screwball
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It doesn't matter if it is the CPI, PPI, job numbers whatever it is, all the economic the reports are really well done IMO. The problem is - is - how they are presented. As someone said above - the headline number. That's what Bubblevision and the nightly news tells us. But that's not the whole story.
When you dig into the reports, and you can even download an excel files I think, you can see trends of how the numbers are changing between different sectors and industries over time. Combine this with the other reports and you get a much better idea of what is going on. Don't believe Jim Cramer.
For example; lets say the data tells us housing might be down for a few years. We check our 401k and see what we have for mutual funds. Find the fund, see what it holds, and how it is weighed. Maybe 8 to 12 assets make up the fund, and is 40 percent heavy in housing. We may want to find something else. Given what we can do with our account of course.
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17 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:
ZeroHedge is a conservative darling but he's just the messenger. I don't think these numbers are fake. They will be adjusted later, but that's not the same as being fake.
I don't know how ZeroHedge got into this. No matter I guess.
Let me go about it this way.
The CPI is our inflation indicator, as we all know. It has been reported since like forever. And since forever everyone who pays attention knows it's bull****. It is not an accurate gauge of the real economy and what people like us feel each and every day.
When Del started this thread probably 10+ years and three boards ago we used to have incredible conversations on why exactly these reports are bull****. That's what good investors are suppose to do - dig into the numbers (like short sellers - the true hero's of our markets (probably all now broke)) - to sniff out, and know where, the bull**** is.
After all, we are only trying to protect and grow our hard earned money. Knowing where the bull**** is a good thing to know, IMO.
Wall Street loves those who don't do their homework.
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23 minutes ago, Hongbit said:
Maybe all those years of hitting the bong are finally catching up to you.
I’ve been posting on here years about my feelings on these reports and the BLS. Go use the search function if you are so bothered by my post.
I don't see any proof of what you are talking about. Care to give some or just bitch and insult people?
About my bong business; which is none of yours, so you can kindly GFY.
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1 hour ago, Hongbit said:
Santa Claus is more believable than today’s fake CPI report.
Consumer Price Index News Release - from the BLS
Above is the link to the actual report. Can you tell us what part is not believable?
If not, you are just making **** up, and no better than the guy you hate. That's why we tried to keep all the political horse**** out of here. To no avail, I admit.
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And let's not forget the lottery. Example. I live in a small town. We have a Moose, Eagles, VFW, American Legion, Amvets, Elks, and probably another I can't remember. In 2019 alone, and I know this because I saw the numbers; around 600 members between the men and women and they spent $493,000 on the lottery alone in one single club. That's a drop in the bucket to the state operated gambling machines and ez-pull tickets they call them. Huge money.
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Speaking of gambling; those 100 year bonds.
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Gambling has been a problem for a long time. It's just easier now. There are more ways to do it as well. Visit a local animal club over the last 50 years and you will see tons of people pissing away money they shouldn't. Guy gets paid on Friday afternoon. Gets home Friday night and has lost it all in 4 hours. Happened 50 years ago and still happens today.
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3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:
My mom had advanced dementia for 9 years and my dad had heart failure for 17 years (although he did remarkably well and didn't suffer a lot). I was in charge of their health care, especially for the last 9 years. My mom was in a rehab place for a few months and was mostly neglected, so I pulled her out of there and took her home and vowed to never ley her go to another home. The agency home health aides were ridiculously expensive (and the aides were not getting much of that money! It was all "administrative cots"), so I decided I would handle their health care privately and cheaply and at home where my parents would feel comfortable. Since I was still working full-time, I hired live-in home health aides from Africa and Haiti for about 65k per year which is actually dirt cheap for dementia care where I live. Dealing with aides was annoying and stressful, but they took better care of my mom than she would have gotten in a home. I took care of my dad as best as I could. This whole experience was the most stressful thing I have ever been through, but I am so glad I kept them out of homes and let them live their final years with some dignity. It's also really good that I can live the rest of my life without guilt (at least not from that!) and know that I did my best.
Good for you. We can only do what we can do with what we have to work with. Pretty much tells you how it all works.
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1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:
I had a conversation about 15 years ago with a hospice nurse shortly after we placed my dad in hospice care. He had end stage COPD. He was then given a "button" to control his own morphine. During his first drug coma, I commented that we seem to treat our pets better than our humans at times.
I was diagnosed with ILD/IPF about 5 years ago. Still functioning fairly normally, though I get out of breath with exertion. Most of the stats are still close to what they were after the original diagnoses. That conversation still stays with me when I think about the future and my options
Hospice...the memories... They do great work around here, but when you are dealing with them it's not pretty.
Another bad part of this. I hate to hijack the thread and this is off topic anyway, but I feel like this is a public service thing, and a warning to other people, so I will.
I will use my mom. She had a terminal disease. She was on oxygen but could get around and do some things, but that eventually went away. I moved in with her for her last two years to help take care of her. I was in the position to do that at the time (dad was already gone) so it was a good thing. She was in and out of the hospital more than once. After one trip they put her in a nursing home for a period of time because she needed that much help. Covered by insurance (100 days) as long as it was a "skilled care" facility.
She was in there for 32 days. I went everyday after work. On day 32 when I went in her room she was crying and clearly highly upset. What's wrong? Somebody from the rest home came in her room and told her the bill hasn't been paid, and if it wasn't paid right now they were going to kick her out. WHAT?
I told her that was a bunch of BS, and if they did that I would friken own the damn place. She was mad at me, and told me to go straight home and write a check (over 3 grand). OK, I'll take care of it. I took the next day off work and first thing called the insurance people. The guy said "don't you dare pay that bill." This was her supplemental insurance company. They said they get the data right from Medicare and do their part - and they did - this was paid. The guy said they are trying to double dip you. They were. To make a long story short, I went after the home and got the second in command fired over this. Good, **** you! She spent the rest of her time there with no incident, and they treated her like a Queen. Good, they got the point.
They weren't the only one. Maybe a year later she was back in the hospital. At this point nothing they could do for her. She knew it. As usual, when I stopped after work she said the doctor will be here at 6 and you are going take him out in the hall and tell him I want to go to (a particular nursing home) because they can't do anything for me and I'm ready to die. Just the conversation you want to have.
So the doc shows up and mom says "he wants to talk to you." I had POA so I was in charge. I took the doc in the hall and explained. He said no, we can help her. No, you can't. This is obvious and she knows it. He was on the board of the nursing home so all she needed was his signature. I finally told him this is what mom wants and if you don't do this, I will find someone that will. He agreed, but it pissed me off because all he wanted to do was soak her for more money like he had been doing. Bad experience #2.
Then there was the final rest home experience. Over 3000 a month for a room, while they pumped another 1200 dollars worth of drugs through this 90 pound women - for quite some time - before they brought in Hospice to help with her final days. I had said to my friends a few years before, they are going to string her along until she runs out of money and then they will let her die. That's exactly what they did. It was so obvious. That's our ****ing system.
She was always sharp mentally and still had a handle on her money, until she didn't have any. On her deathbed a few days before she passed she started crying and told me how sorry she was that there was no money to leave me. I didn't care, and that was OK, but she felt that way anyway.
Sorry for the rant but that stuff still pisses me off to this day. Horrible places, many not ran very well. I know people who work in the homes and the horror stories are off the charts. Understaffed, underpaid and over worked. The way our seniors are treated is criminal.
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9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:
My father fell the week after he went on blood thinners and his doctor specifically told him "no more climbing ladders". He didn't listen. That is when I took away his ladders. He thought he was invincible until the end.
It is hard getting old and you find out you can't do things you once did. We don't want to face the truth so we keep trying. It's even tougher on the families who have to deal with this. They are trying to keep them safe for their own good, but they don't want to listen. At some point there are tough decisions that have to be made - taking away the car keys - time to get them into assisted living or a rest home. We will all face these things as we get older and those who have to care for us - if one is lucky enough to have someone care for them.
That's if you have all your mental capabilities. For those who are dealing with someone with dementia or similar - it gets a lot more difficult and complicated. One of my bartenders who is 60 has a mom like that. She calls her in the middle of the night scared out of her mind because there is a strange guy in the house - it's her husband.
Getting old is no fun for anyone. But it's part of life - and death. Wait until you have conversations with other old people about the various ways to commit suicide because they are going to do it "their way."
Jack Kevorkian had a point. When your quality of life becomes bad enough, what's the point?
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10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:
My dad was climbing ladders into his 80s even with a couple of bad falls. I had to take away all his ladders which really irritated him. It was easier to get him to stop driving. He did live to 99 though.
I know guys that age who do as well. It only takes one opps. Buddy of mine was trimming trees into his late 70s. One day fell. 6 months later he was in a box.
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13 minutes ago, Hongbit said:
The most important part of today’s report were the 2025 revisions.
584,000 jobs gained were reported for the year. The revisions today has it at 181,000. 403,00 jobs that were reported but never existed
That is a misstatement by 69%
What’s scarier is that sinceI don’t trust these numbers, it’s probably much, much worse.
Either way, why does our financial system continue to put trust in these numbers. Who would put trust and use an indicator that had only 30% accuracy? This is insane but then again these markets have always been rigged. This is yet another tool meant to confuse and deceive.
Wall Street knows the numbers. There are other ways to figure them out. This guy touches on it in his article today; BLS Revises Nonfarm Payrolls for 2025 Lower by 1 Million Jobs
FTA:
QuoteFor January 2026, the BLS did report a gain of 130,000. That’s highly likely to be revised lower a year from now in the next annual revision.
The BLS needs to look at actual tax data instead of flawed sampling coupled with an even more flawed Birth Death model. I have been meaning to write up a specific proposal and will do so.
A big Wall Street bank analyst makes more money than the CEO's of the companies he covers, or sector. The ARE the smartest guys in the room and have data we don't. They don't get fooled.
The rest is up for debate for us serfs. It's been like this since forever.
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And the crowd would go wild! 🙂
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This is like super cool. JV is the guy with the golden arm. He's back home where it all began. They have to give him the opening day start, they just do. He can clinch the WS down the road a few months later.
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When people don't have a means and/or can't afford pain meds, they turn to other things. Eventually this feeds the heroin problem. Black market, cheaper than doctors and proscription meds. Other drugs as well. It's all they have. Sad ****.
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14 minutes ago, slothfacekilla said:
I am currently reading a book on the Sackler family called Empire of Pain and it is heavily reinforcing my desire to stay away from opiates. Sad stuff.
There was a documentary on Netflix a few years ago called "The Pharmacist" that is a must watch.
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The F1 Thread
in General Sports
Posted
I was at a Daytona party and kinda watched it. Another wreck fest, even on the last lap. Imagine that. NASCAR has a NASCAR problem. I think I read they gave up the Chicago street race, which was stupid to begin with. There are better races during rush hour. They have too many road courses. That's fine for F1, that's what they do. People don't want to watch a stock car on a road course. Then they came up with the 3 stage thing, and the playoff horse**** at the end of the year.
Their ratings are going the wrong way. Might want to reinvent the wheel.