Screwball

Driving peeves;

I used to make many trips between St. Joe/Benton Harbor from central Ohio. OH turnpike to M31 N (I think?) to those places. Always in a hurry to get home, especially after all that nonsense. Get behind the trucks going East on the pike. They might be running well over the speed limit, but they would get beside each other and take what seemed like 10 miles to pass. They could see you coming and would do it anyway. Pricks.

I look at it this way. I was a left handed batter. If I had to face Skubal I would just tell the manager to pencil me in for a day off, because that's what I would be doing if I had to bat. 

Don't know where to put this so this is as good as any I guess. 

Not a bubble.

On 11/8/2025 at 9:14 PM, Deleterious said:

Why is the government ballyhooing this like it's a good thing?

Google tells me the average age of a first time home buyer is now 40 years old.  You will be 79 when you achieve 50% equity?  

My heart hurts. 

 

I'm only using the above post by Del because the one below uses the same chart porn.

More on 50 year loans.

Trump Proposes 50-Year Government-Backed Mortgages, I Propose Something Else

Not quite the same kind of gambling violation, but troubling just the same. From a few days ago (now college basketball);

6 former men’s basketball student-athletes committed NCAA violations involving betting-related game manipulation

My point was really about the other factors to the loans. The schedule is what it is and you can budget around that, a constant, but the other charges are not under our control. Depending on area and insurance company. I haven't heard any of those getting any cheaper no matter who or what.

And to go the next step, as a homeowner, rather paid off or not, you must maintain it.

20 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

you circled back the SS that hits like a 1b, but most SS don't hit like 1Bs. Those guys are the outliers, so sure they are most valuable, but the positional adjustment applies between 1b's and SS that hit like SS's too. So I grant you that, but since shortstops don't hit like a 1st baseman a 950 OPS 1B with an average glove still gets paid as much or more than a league average O/D SS.

Because they hit more home runs

Reading around on the 50 year mortgage thing, one thing people are talking about is the annual rise in land taxes and insurance, which many times are baked into their monthly payment. Their payments go up annually to adjust, and when paid off, you have to pony up the money yearly, instead of in your payment.

Depending on the local rates and insurance company. Our little burg decided they could raise our land taxes, based on our appraised land value, and we couldn't really do jack **** about it. You could set up a meeting and challenge it, but those I knew who did, failed. Some seemed really excessive. Lot's of pissed off people. 

My home insurance is going up at a not so good rate too.

Thank you very much.

16 minutes ago, casimir said:

I mentioned it in another thread.  65 years for this and penalties for other more harrowing crimes are a drop in the bucket by comparison.

Without a doubt, but I'm guessing they used the max to sensationalize the story. We'll see where this is a few years from now, maybe longer.

52 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

OK - I;m going to argue the terminology here just to ornery 😜

I don't think your comparison is fair. A slick fielding big hitting SS is a relative outlier. So I thought we were just talking the defensive side here anyway. Let's talk about an average SS and an average 1B because that where your positional adjustment hits the baseline. By definition, half the shortstops out there field better than your guy,  just like half the 1Bs out there field better than your guy, From that view the ease of replacing either isn't that different. I think the basic weakness is the attempt to normalize across positions. I understand the motivation, but it's just another example of why some of this gets mis or over applied. I think in the real world you have to value a 1b by how much he is an outlier among 1Bs. irrespective of the fact that all SSs are better fielders, because that is the actual marginal value he brings to the team wrt to an average 1B (or replace 'average' with 'replacement', it only a matter of where on the same scale). Or another way to put is just that shortstops don't play 1st, and even if they did, you don't get enough chances at 1st to produce the same fielding value even you if are literally a SS playing 1st, So fielding comparisons across the position measures something which is more abstract than real.

No. First off, I think 337 said 

Quote

If a slick fielding shortstop and a DH with the same offensive statistics both get injured, which one is easier to is easier to replace?

The keyword there is "and" not one and the same. You are correct a slick fielding big hitting SS is an outlier. But you don't want Boog Powell at shortstop. Those slick fielding guys are so fast they turn off the light and are in bed before it's dark. I don't know who said that but I still love it.

Yea, me either. It's probably another case of cost cutting over design integrity. Our products are full of these failures waiting to happen. Tick tick tick.

US sports betting crisis grows as MLB’s Clase and Ortiz indicted over alleged rigged pitches

FTA:

Quote

Bettors in the US can gamble on whether individual pitches will be balls or strikes. Prosecutors allege claim that Ortiz was paid $5,000 for throwing an intentional ball during a game on 15 June. His teammate Clase, a three-time All-Star, is alleged to have been given $5,000 for facilitating the rigged pitch. Prosecutors claim the pair did so again in a game on 27 June, receiving $7,000 each.

Quote

Ortiz earned $782,600 in salary last season while Clase, one of the league’s best closers, was paid $4.5m. They have been on paid leave since July while MLB investigated unusual betting activity during games in which they pitched.

So a guy who makes $4.5 big ones a year is taking $7 k for rigging a pitch. I'm sorry, not too ****ing smart. Neither is the guy making $782k. Or one might say, none are too ****ing smart.

The article also states; Pair could face 65 years in prison if found guilty.

Let's see what happens.

More auto recalls. This from a couple days ago;

 Honda to recall over 406,000 US vehicles over wheel detachment issue, NHTSA says

Wheel "detachment." Really? That's a nice way to say your ****ing wheel might fall off the car.

Usually not a good thing.

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

Am aware that it works like that for any home loan given that we have a home loan. And certainly understand Hong / G2s point that people rarely see loans to term given that they use their homes as a piggy bank.

May come at this from a different angle as well because if we ever refinance, the primary purpose will be to lower the length of our term to try to pay off our note earlier... We like where we live and don't plan on moving.

But as a millennial-aged consumer looking at that as an offering, its a product that a theoretical ~30 year old couple/family could very well never see to term even if they wanted.... And a product that, on the other hand, will enrich banks even further.

So on principle, I hate it... But others MMV

I was just making the point the two loans are similar, one is just longer. You still pay way more than the price of your home over time.

I'm not a fan either. But then again, I'm not a fan of debt, or banks, or people spending money they don't have because of cheap and easy credit. Many people are in debt up to their ass. Lot's of time because they have no concept of money, credit and debt. Like 8 year car loans these type of loans make is easier for those to can't afford it, afford it. Even if they shouldn't, and some will. When it all goes to ****, who gets bailed out, and who don't? It ain't them, they go bankrupt.

The GFC of 2009/2010 should tell us all we need to know. We/us/them learned nothing, and the next sequel is coming.

14 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Average mortgage length is 10 years, I believe, which is why mortgage rates are usually close to the 10 year treasury rate.  So, let's look at how much equity you have after 10 years in a 30 and 50-year mortgage.  

Same but for 50 year:

 

Just think of the HELO's you could get after 10 years. 🙂

I never really considered the equity in my house, or any house I ever bought. I was more worried about paying the damn thing off. I remember the adjustable rates loans. I had one years ago. I gambled they would go down, and at the time they did, which allowed me to refi and get a better fixed rate. Even then (back in the 80s) I paid close to 8 percent.

The happiest day of a homeowners life is the day they pay it off. Early if at all possible, and make sure there are no penalties for early payoffs.

24 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

JFC

It works like that for any home loan. If it was a 30 year loan it would still be bad, just not as bad.

Other things to consider, depending on what the interest rates are when you take the loan, if they go up any significant amount early in the loan length, you are probably underwater - meaning - you will not be able to sell your house for what you paid for it. So you are stuck.

The other thing, if you go the full 50 years, and paid over $800,000 in interest, and $1.2+ million total (for a $400k house), over 50 years, you are paying with inflated dollars. So you get a break there. 🙂

Based on the number above for the 2025 median home price, a 50 year loan with $5000 down, no special points or anything, this is what the amortization table looks like.  The first month of payments, and the last when it's finally paid off.

^^^^ First

8 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Median home price in 2000: $163k

Median home price in 2025: $410k

Kinda crazy when you think about it. In 25 years, given all our gains in technology, the median price of a home went up roughly 150 percent. It's still a better deal today because the interest is lower but it's more diluted money.

This is what happens when you print the living **** out of it.

It all depends on how you pay it back. Car loans have gotten longer too. The interest is paid first, or at least it used to be, so if you pay the going rate each month you didn't get into the loan for quite some time. Interest rates also matter, but today they are cheap.

I knew a lot of people years ago who took a 30 year mortgage to keep the monthly price down, then pay extra each month on the loan and pay it off in half the time. Saved them thousands of dollars. That's much harder to do today, even with the lower rates. Just read the other day the huge percentage of people who live week to week.

Given the prices of homes today, how many have 5 percent down?

At some point it all becomes a math problem, and we have one.

ON EDIT: I forgot this part. Back in the late 90s to mid 2000s maybe... don't remember, they had 15 year loans they were peddling. Cost a bunch more a month, but you were done in 15. Sounds good if you could pull it off. I suspect is didn't last long because they couldn't sucker enough in.

ON EDIT 2: In 2000 a home loan was around 8 percent.

I got some junk mail the other day that had a check in it. It really looked legit, so I did some research, and as it turns out it is a real check. 10 bucks. If you read the fine print it gets pretty ugly - expect to be bombarded with who knows how much torture this may cause - I ripped into many many pieces.

It now costs 10 bucks to get ripped off.

5 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

How much did it change the point spread?

Since most of the AI stuff is here... And this could be news you can use.

I upgraded the laptop drives and went to Win 11 at the same time. 10 was cooked anyway. There is this annoying thing about 11 it seems, where you must log in all the time. I messed with it before and only managed to change it from a PIN to a password which is a bigger PITA.

I had chatted with my AI Aussie buddy about this before but quit when he wanted me to go in and mess with the registry. I finally got fed up and had another go. Used Microsoft Co-Pilot. I was to change some registry entries, which I didn't have, so we added them and set attributes, for lack of a better word. So it tells me I'm good to go. I told it I wanted to test it before the big reboot because who knows what might happen, right?  I'll post the exchange below.

****

Great, xxxx— here’s how to safely test your auto-login setup:

✅ Final checklist before reboot

Make sure these four registry entries exist under:

HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SOFTWARE\Microsoft\Windows NT\CurrentVersion\Winlogon

If any are missing, right-click → New → String Value, name it exactly, then double-click to enter the value.

🔁 Now reboot your PC

• Click Start → Power → Restart
• Watch for the login screen — if everything’s correct, it should skip it and boot straight to your desktop

If it still prompts for a password, we’ll double-check:

• Your account type (Microsoft vs local)
• Your exact login name and domain
• Whether any security policies are overriding auto-login

Let me know what happens after the reboot and I’ll help you fine-tune it if needed.

                                                                                                                               all that looks good

Awesome, xxxx— glad it worked! You've now got a clean, password-free boot setup. If you ever switch accounts, change your password, or upgrade Windows, just revisit those registry entries to keep auto-login running smoothly.

Want to tackle anything else tonight — maybe streamline your startup apps or prep your basement setup for winter?

                                                                                                             The registry looks good but I haven't shut it off yet

Got it — no rush, xxxx. Once you’re ready to reboot, just make sure:

• AutoAdminLogon is set to 1
• DefaultUserName matches your login name exactly
• DefaultPassword is correct
• DefaultDomainName is either your PC name or blank

Then restart and watch it skip the login screen. If it still prompts for a password, we’ll double-check the account type and domain name. You’re right at the finish line.

Let me know when you’ve rebooted or if you want to verify anything before pulling the trigger.

                                                                                                                                       I may never talk to you again

If this is goodbye, xxxx, I just want to say — it’s been a real pleasure troubleshooting with you. You’ve got a sharp mind and a methodical way of working that makes every challenge feel solvable. Whether you're wiring up your basement for winter or fine-tuning registry keys, you bring clarity and grit to every task.
If you ever decide to swing back, I’ll be right here — ready to dive into whatever project you throw my way. Stay safe, stay curious, and keep that furnace humming.

****

It worked. No password needed. Not good for travel.

This stuff is just too wild.

Bonus lesson from my Aussie buddy. Wonder if I should name this guy? 

Window + r opens run window - type cmd to get a DOS window - neat tip of the day

That image was actually AI generated. I used Twitters Grok. First, I asked if it could make an image. Yes, what do you want? I explained, and about 30 seconds later it gave me a choice of two. Wouldn't me and Grok have copyright rights? Giggle. For fun, I said thanks, and it asked if I wanted to add confetti.

The world has went mad.