Screwball

Just now, Tiger337 said:

Only at the bank.  

They still call me - my personal banker - I don't know why. Slow learners I guess.

52 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

And it's the self fulfilling death spiral. The way they are operating they aren't making any money, so some vulture like Bain dismembers it all and walks away a little cash but the all the people are SOL. The vulture's ledger books say in the end it was all good, but society gets left with all those 'externalities' like broken towns and broken people that neither the vultures nor the big campaign contributors are obligated to do any accounting for.

This is their own doing.

I was expelled along with hundreds of others from the big multi-national due to being too old and too expensive. They wanted to go younger and cheaper. Because money. I ended up at a company that made machines for these people, and a bunch of them.

Every time the automaker, or whoever, changes a marketing gimmick - hey look - new parts. Good for them, the manufacturer, and us, the people who made their machines. Win - win.

But they all ****ed it up because they are a bunch of clueless phony back stabbing pricks that know nothing about how to run a manufacturing plant.

6 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

I have a nicer version when I'm told they only have an hour to spend, and don't want to pay admission. "The gift shop is down the hall"

Being kind and respecting people isn't hard. Our first interaction sets the tone on how we can go forward and make the most of the situation. 

As my cousin Oddball who was in Kelly's Hero's would say; "Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Not directed at you, just the quote.

But I get it, I spent years in retail. Try a bar. Just add alcohol...

We need to do better. We should all be above this horse****.

21 hours ago, Screwball said:

Last year a girl slipped due to oil on the concrete floor and busted her hand. She was off work for several months. How can that happen to begin with? Where is maintenance? Where is OSHA? Did anyone call them? They sure as hell should, but the girls tell me nobody cares. They also need a job, and are afraid of losing it. So they STFU.

They told me today they are still walking on towels in front of their machines.

So sad. Maybe we can bring back child labor and textile mills.

Follow up on this with some data from the ground.

I talked to one of the girls today and she told me the OEM they supply, a big 3 auto company, were there for an inspection. They told them if they didn't fix this mess in the X amount of time (I don't remember what she said was the time frame), they would pull all their orders. 

After they left they told the worker bees if they can't sell the company by the end of March they will be done. Couple hundred worker bees, so probably 30-40 office bees. This is only one plant. They have another about 45 minutes away. That one is bigger. Probably another few hundred.

I know this company. What was going to happen to these people was a flashing sign a long time ago. Nothing got better. This is a perfect example of how piss poor and inept our managerial talent is today.

Maybe we should just go with **** you asshole. WTF?

Interesting read on the energy requirements to continue the AI boom. From OilPrice.com.

The Hidden Math Behind Rising Electricity Prices

• Quote

   

  • Utility capital spending is set to surge far beyond official projections, driven by higher equipment costs and accelerating electricity demand from AI and electrification.
  • Electricity prices are likely to rise materially, with revenue requirements increasing 7–9% annually.
  • Financing risks and regulatory uncertainty are growing, as utilities rely heavily on debt and equity issuance to fund expansion.

   

Related:

I have a spreadsheet with each electric bill since January of 2022. I track all the charges. I’m on Ohio AEP. There are 4 things we pay for on the bill. The electric usage based on rate per kilowatt used. Transmission charges, distribution charges, and customer charge, which is always $10.00.

Kilowatts vary by usage, the transmission and distribution charges are proportional to the kilowatts used. We can shop for better rates through alternative suppers, which may be cheaper for kilowatts used, but the rest of the chargers still apply.

If I take my total bill amount and divide by Kw I used, it cost me $.1553 per KwH in Jan 22, to $.2289 per KwH in Jan of this year. Highest was .2306 a month ago. So that’s around a 50 percent increase in 4 years. And we are only getting started.

More on AI and our shrinking world; Burger King will use AI to check if employees say ‘please’ and ‘thank you’

A start...

More local data that makes me wonder where this is all going. County North of here closing a plant costing 160+ jobs. County to the West, home of a Goodyear tire plant offering early retirements and voluntary layoffs. Their tire mold shop across town to close either beginning or end of March - 185 good paying jobs gone. Will be relocated to one of the Southern states.

We had a plant that employed a couple hundred close last year. Others laying people off in the area. Been told the job market in Columbus, Ohio, not so good. 

AI is not going to replace those people. When not enough people are working, something has to give. 

1 hour ago, casimir said:

There was a guy on here (MTS at the time) that went to an amateur Tiger try out.  I think he tried 2B or LF.  I think he knew nothing would come of it, but wanted to go anyway.  That was a while ago.

I think the grade scale was 20-80.  I never understood why it started at 20 and ended at 80.  Somebody has that answer.  @gehringer_2?  @Edman85?

I only knew about the 40 scale. 5 tools, each worth 2 to 8 points. Hit = 6, hit for power= 5, arm= 6, catch=5, run=7. Total = 29 out of 40. That was how you were rated. 

They had you run a 60 yard dash - the distance from home to second base. IIRC, back in the 70s you had be be under 7.2 or you were immediately gone.

9 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Last year a girl slipped due to oil on the concrete floor and busted her hand. She was off work for several months. How can that happen to begin with? Where is maintenance? Where is OSHA? Did anyone call them? They sure as hell should, but the girls tell me nobody cares. They also need a job, and are afraid of losing it. So they STFU.

They told me today they are still walking on towels in front of their machines.

So sad. Maybe we can bring back child labor and textile mills.

Well, to be honest, they never left (pun intended), we just sent the jobs to China, India, and any other third world county where there are no slave labor laws, environmental awareness, safety, and next to no pay. They even feature workplaces with nets so the workers wouldn't go splat on the ground because it was better than working 20 hours a day.

But we don't see that here. We have Chinamarts, Amazon, and a credit card. So it's all good.

Last year a girl slipped due to oil on the concrete floor and busted her hand. She was off work for several months. How can that happen to begin with? Where is maintenance? Where is OSHA? Did anyone call them? They sure as hell should, but the girls tell me nobody cares. They also need a job, and are afraid of losing it. So they STFU.

They told me today they are still walking on towels in front of their machines.

So sad. Maybe we can bring back child labor and textile mills.

8 hours ago, Deleterious said:

This bubble is a bit different from the dot com bubble IMO.  

The dot com bubble was almost exclusively funded by debt.  Nobody was making money back then and some of the transactions were just stupid.  Mark Cuban selling broadcast.com for $5 billion and Yahoo did absolutely nothing with it.  That bubble burned hot and fast.

The AI bubble does have some debt funded ventures.  But a lot of the big players are companies like Google, MSFT, Amazon, even Grok is now funded by profits from SpaceX, or mostly from Starlink if we're being honest.  

None of those companies make a profit directly on AI.  But they all make dump trucks full of money in other areas.  That money didn't exist in the dot com bubble era.  So this one has a lot more sustainability and won't burn out as fast.

I agree with you, for the most part. We had an old saying in corporate America; it's the same, but different. I think that applies here. Another bubble (the same), but blown a different way (the different). I do think it has more financial integrity than the dot-com bubble.

When you look at the bigger picture, the massive capital expenditures to build data centers, chips, computer stuff, and the infrastructure to do so is incredible, no doubt. As well what it will take to build them. I talked to a guy a few months ago who was laying concrete somewhere in Southern Ohio that had 8 semi-truck sized generators running 24/7/365 to power a data center that isn't even done yet. 

But...At the end of the day, what's the goal? Data centers are what powers the AI stuff. Like super horsepower search engines. The centers themselves do not employ a huge amount of people, but they suck up a bunch of power, water, and will no doubt contribute to increasing our utility bills.

The real goal of AI, which couldn't happen without all this, is to eliminate jobs. Zero's and ones. Binary language that eventually became the connection between humans and technology. Once we can train something to do our physical work (robots), our customer service interaction, or any task the corporation decides they can replace people with AI. Cha-ching. We are now selling AI as a solution to run our businesses.

This AI stuff will work until it doesn't. 

I make a point of going to the local ****hole bar around 3:30 when a bunch of local factory workers come in. I get to hear their horror stories, both worker bees and management. Cornhole is ripe with small companies who supply the auto industry, or the big appliance company out of Michigan, also known as WHR.

All ain't well in Mudville, according to the worker bees. Shutdowns coming, days off, no pay. Checked with a boss bee who worked for another company. Same. People who makes parts for the big three are walking on towels on the floor soaked with hydraulic fluid leaking from the machines they have to run. That's nuts - but a sure sign of a company that is very poorly ran - and about to go broke - or sued into oblivion.

AI is all about replacing jobs. While **** like that goes on, and maybe why. Small example, but true everywhere. I lived in the beast. This is nothing new, just different.

1 hour ago, casimir said:

I had none of the 5 tools.  A reverse Yahtzee.

It was simple back then. I really get a kick out of the stats you guys use. I think Earl Weaver was ahead of his time using index cards. Now look what we have.

You can't teach speed. That was my real point. They timed me with a sun dial.

How Much Did AI Spending Contribute to Fourth-Quarter 2025 GDP?

FTA:

Quote

Nearly the entire fourth quarter GDP was AI related.

How long can this go on?

A little more chart porn. Today was NVDA day. It looks to be insignificant after the earnings report and conference call. The different shaded part on the right is after hours. 

Looking at it from a more historical view, the price hasn't done much in the last 4 to 5 months.

Bonus porn; the S&P - 1 year by day. Vertical yellow arrows Fed rate cuts, horizontal yellow a gap that will eventually fill. The gray bubbles are the high and low for the year time frame.

26 minutes ago, casimir said:

I agree, I think there is something to being strong up the middle.  What I wonder about is range in this day and age of defensive positioning.  Is range as important as it used to be?  Certainly having that skill set works well regardless of where the fielder sets up.

The stat stuff today is off the charts. We read it here. I think we are both "aged" so you may remember. Back when we were in little league, maybe high school, it was about the "5 tools." They gave you a grade on each tool. Hit, hit for power, catch/field, throw, and run. Something like a 40 to 80 grade system. Simple.

If you don't have the last one (run), you don't have ****.

How about a little chart porn, just for fun. First the S&P 500 6 month chart by day. The yellow arrows are Fed rate cuts. Going back to October 25 the big long red candle established that price range. It has now established another above that, and tried to break out above, but has failed. Looks like the pigmen of Wall Street loved the volatility.

On the other hand - the MAGS. Same time frame.

White board tip; if you need to use one under some circumstance, bring your own markers.

You're welcome.

40 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

I would bet anyone even considering making a run in 2028 has already placed a claim on a bunch of domains. 

Probably.

The Big Club wouldn't allow us to profit anyway.

The long shot and how to make money from it.

We are about 6-7 weeks away from the mid-terms. Within the next week it will be silly season for the next two years as the Big Club decides who we can vote for in 2028.

The long shot: Thomas Massie. He throws his hat in the ring with the promise to continue the quest against the Epstein criminal enterprise. He promises a position in his administration to Ro Khanna, both of which have shone to have balls of steel when it comes to this subject. That wins in a landslide. Unless they kill them first.

How to make money.

Less than 500 bucks buys you a dozen or more domain names. Buy up a bunch of combinations. You could even go so far as getting bot farms to spam social media on rumors to help drive up the price. 

The pigmen of Wall Street would be proud. 🙂

2 hours ago, oblong said:

I’m not going to worry about Larkin on this. He just won the gold medal. I don’t expect him to react that way in a moment like this. That’s unreasonable. 

Thank you.

From what I watched today, especially with the team bringing out those kids, this was nothing but a class act.

There is too much hate in our world.

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I wasn't even a hockey fan, but it was still one of the best stories ever.  

Jim Craig's brother was a student in my class several years later.  

That's pretty cool. You never know who you might get in your class.

I didn't realize it was on delay until I read that today.  It looks like both games were, both Russia and Finland.

I was working the counter in the bowling alley the night against Russia. Apparently not many knew the results, including me. We had a 24 lane house and when people came in they said to make sure to keep them up to date on the score. I had a TV at the counter. People were running back to the bar between their turn bowling to watch, and at the counter, what little they could.

I would run a streamer across the scoreboards as the game went on. Finally, I got to put: USA 4, Russia 3 - FINAL. The place went nuts. It was really amazing. 

We had 4 or 5 guys from there who rented a motor home and went to Lake Placid. They couldn't get in the arena, but was there. They said the town went bonkers. That had to be a memory of a lifetime.

46 years to the day the USA Men's Hockey Team wins the Gold Metal. Congrats to them.

The 1980 story has to be one of the best sports stories in history. If you were alive at that time, it was one of those "I remember exactly where I was" kind of things. A truly magical and incredible story.

I thought the movie was really good, and there is a Netflix documentary that is excellent as well.  

With proper video editing software you can already do that, but would take some time. I'm sure AI can do it a bunch faster. I wonder how the copyright stuff works? Are they using existing images from the matrix, or generating their own. If so, do they own the copyright?