microline133

Disclaimer...I am not a guitar guy. That said, I thought this was pretty cool.

My daughter has been making noise about wanting a guitar for quite some time. Tonight we were over at a family friend's house and "Uncle" Adam is the owner of eight guitars and had been discussing his most recent purchase and his need to get rid of a couple older ones. My daughter randomly came upstairs and started talking about her desire to get a guitar....then "Uncle" Adam appears from the back room with a guitar and offers it to her as her first....it was his first that he bought when he was 15 years old. Such a cool, cool moment. My nine-year old daughter was speechless, sat down and started her best strumming, then hugged her "Uncle"....amazing.

That's what happens when the mobs descend upon you because THEY don't understand the data you presented and insist you were wrong.

Spent some time walking around that site when I was there a couple of weeks ago, then spent some time reading about the construction methodology and goals of the process....Lift Build. It's an interesting concept, particularly from an efficiency and safety perspective.

It's game day!!! Let's go....I don't care how hungover I am!

I fly into town Friday for this game....first Lions game ever, first NFL game in general! 

One of the keys to reading national prospect lists is to understand where their information comes from. Both Bowden and BA are heavily reliant on internal org sources and org assessments (hint, orgs tend to pump their own players when they talk to the media), as opposed to external sources/assessments. I would wager they have Flores significantly higher than other outlets when off-season lists release, simply because of where the data is coming from....more observation heavy, broader sourced, or data heavy lists are unlikely to have him nearly as high. That doesn't mean one is right or wrong, just that these lists have bias and it helps to know where it is given the outlet.

20 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

I'm curious what you have heard about some of these "breakouts" like Meadows and Perez? Anyone feel like it's for real? How about Jobe? 

I haven't found anyone that is terribly impressed by Perez. General consensus seems to be he probably reaches the big leagues eventually, but in a utility/bench role. Meadows has garnered a little more praise, but I still haven't found anyone that suddenly believes he's an above-average regular. Given his developmental arc and the swing and miss still present in his game, I think he's going to have to continue to perform to convert the scout types...had the arc been a little more positive from the start, there's a decent chance you may have seen some guys come around sooner this year.

Personally, I'd stay a bit tempered on both Flores and Madden. There's still a fair number of scouts I've talked to that have reliever projection on Madden, though he's converted a couple guys I know to thinking he can be a #4, and most also only see back-end ability for Flores due to c/c projection and less feel for the CH than you'd like at this stage.

I drove from Cornwall to Sarnia coming home from college one time. I think I stopped once for gas, never hit a lick of traffic. Got to the border in Sarnia and the guy pulls up my plate, starts to ask the typical questions about what I was doing in Canada, pauses as he does the math on how long it has been since I entered in Cornwall, laughed and said, "I'm not even going to bother. You didn't stop to do a damn thing. We don't need to worry about you today."

Second best stop at customs in my life, next to the time my Grandfather never actually stopped on his way through.

They handle promotions similarly to the vast majority of orgs.

28 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

You're a flight risk.

If this hasn't been obvious for years, I don't know where your head is at.

16 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

I have a passport and a passport card. By “Official” I assume it’s related to your government job. If you are no longer employed you would lose it, right?

TSA wouldn’t let me keep my airport badge once I stopped working (volunteering) at DTW. 

Do former Presidents get to keep their government passport once they become private citizens again?

I honestly don't know. I have not been asked to retrieve official passports from employees leaving federal service, and I haven't even seen it on our out-processing checklist. It's possible security handles it and I'm oblivious, though.

32 minutes ago, microline133 said:

I've not paid too much attention to standings, but I believe Erie is likely playoff bound. If that's the case, Dingler stays in Toledo, or at least goes back down and plays for them.

Let me clarify because I totally botched the above.....Dingler either just stays in Erie for the playoffs or if he's promoted, he ultimately goes back to Erie for the playoffs.

2 hours ago, CMRivdogs said:

Why would someone have two current passports?

I have two current passports, one an "Official" passport and one my personal. Both are current and wholly my responsibility.

5 hours ago, Edman85 said:

'm not aware of any postseason bids off hand, but that likely plays a role as well.

I've not paid too much attention to standings, but I believe Erie is likely playoff bound. If that's the case, Dingler stays in Toledo, or at least goes back down and plays for them.

2 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Really liked him as a prospect with the Tigers.  Figured he was out of baseball.  Good for him.

I'm curious about this and I don't intend it as some big gotcha moment or to ridicule....genuinely curious.

What was it about him that you really liked? How did you come to really like him. As I recall, the scouting consensus, mine included, was he was a non-prospect (which time has born out). The only place he was "hyped" (and I put that in quotes intentionally) was from the Tigers themselves....they pumped his tires a bit and added him to the 40-man roster, which was a recognition for a good season and nothing to do with future potential, the same thing they did for Jordan Lennerton once upon a time. 

Was it the club's PR on him that hooked you, did you have a good experience with him at the ballpark, was it the stats, what drew you to him as a prospect. It's interesting to me because he and Lennerton were two of the first public prospect PR campaigns I can remember from the Tigers....they've clearly been successful hyping some prospects more recently with their social media reach, podcasts, etc., and some of them deservedly so, but I'm genuinely curious if that's what hooked you on him back then.

As a prospect writer, fighting the org narrative has always been one of the biggest challenges (it used to just be a fight to sift through the BS when you talked to org sources) and I occasionally like to get this data to see how far back I was actually fighting against the org pushing shit publicly versus just fighting normal fan enthusiasm.

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Another example of scouts knowing more than fans reading minor league boxscores?  

That never happens, Lee. I don't know what you are talking about!

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

Yeah, I don't know that making Menzin permanent would necessarily doom us, but it would be a lot better, I think, to go outside.

BTW, here is the news blurb written about Menzin when he was promoted last year:

Menzin, 31, is responsible for all aspects of MLB operations, including player procurement, contract negotiations, roster construction, salary arbitration, league-wide rules, collective bargaining agreement compliance, professional scouting, advance scouting and video operations.

So, he has already had a head start, but it's fair to wonder whether he is in part responsible for the mess of the last year, or whether he was making recommendations that were being overruled by the old guard still in charge. I have no sense of which might be correct.

There's no wondering, frankly, Menzin had as much responsibility for the current state of the Tigers as Avila. Avila has been the face of the fan's scorn, but Menzin is nearly equally responsible.

10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

It's highly proprietary, so that is unlikely.  He may know people that do have access to it and get their opinions along with his own observations.  

I did not have any advanced data at the time I made that call on Stewart. My projection was based on watching five games in six days and seeing 20+ plate appearances in that span.

5 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I'm pretty certain that you knew the flaws in those guys before even posting that. Stewart was always a crap glove, even when we drafted him. Moya was always a Mendoza candidate, even when we drafted him. Burrows was a decent arm, but no world beater. Kevin Ziomek? Who had any expectations for him? Did I/ Maybe... but I barely remember him. Gerber was a Cody Ross type (hopeful) so yes, maybe some hope there... I remember two of those BP hopefuls, but don't ever remember thinking much of any of those other guys.

This is a serious question, to Buddha as well: I think the talent level in today's system is higher than in 2016 (I don't understand your "why" question Buddha... because... I do believe it's higher?) so I would like to turn this question around: Why do you think the talent in today's system is NOT higher?

Or put another way: Do you SERIOUSLY (sorry for the point of emphasis) believe that this list (not in any order): Dillon Dingler, Josh Crouch, Peyton Graham, Jace Jung, Wenceel Perez, Gage Workman, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequera, Trei Cruz, Colten Keith, Adinso Reyes, Izaac Pacheco, Jose De La Cruz, Parker Meadows, Roberto Campos, Kerry Carpenter, Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden, Dylan Smith, Brant Hurter, Eddy Felix, Donal Montas, Juan Ruiz.

Is no better than this list: Michael Fulmer, Christin Stewart, Beau Burrows, JaCoby Jones, Kevin Ziomek, Joe Jimenez, Spencer Turnbull, Mike Gerber, Steve Moya, Zach Shepherd, Derek Hill, Tyler Alexander, Wynton Bernard, Dixon Machado, Adam Ravenelle, Paul Voelker, Drew Smith, Cam Gibson, Matt Hall, Josh Turley, Jose Azocar, Endrys Briceno, Grayson Greiner, Kade Scivicque, A.J. Simcox.

 

Seriously. (?)

Because I flat out disagree. 

But that's just me.

I'm not sure why I'm bothering with this, it's the equivalent of pissing into the wind and a perfect example of why I hate the current state of prospect analysis on the internet. Fans aren't educated on the nuances of player dev, tool hierarchy, etc., they are just bludgeoned with every highlight and how good this guy might be.

If you want to argue that the new list is incrementally better than the old one in some way, that's fine. I'd contend that incremental improvement doesn't actually constitute much in terms of actual system quality or depth. Incremental gains on lists like this aren't where you make your hay....you need big gains that develop guys from these lists toward the higher end talent lists I mentioned earlier. 

With hindsight as your guide, you can poke holes in all those guys I listed. I can poke similar holes in each of the guys you list....

Dingler....framing/receiving/game calling lag and may not catch up, lots of swing and miss, hints of durability issues. Crouch....solid glove, likely won't get to power at higher levels because of hit tool deficiency. Saquera/Santana/Wenceel....meet Javier Betancourt, Domingo Leyba, Francisco Martinez, and so on. Jung....looks like he will hit but the glove is suspect, doesn't sound terribly different from Stewart immediately after the draft. I can keep going here.

Look, I certainly believe some of these guys are good talents with potential and I would likely shove some of them in my own rankings, but they are all flawed in significant ways that prevent them from being guys you start counting on or penciling into future rosters. A simple (not so simple) thing like a hit tool deficiency, need to recognize spin better, lack of defensive chops, poor fastball command, etc., are all more than enough to derail a guy well before Detroit, and little things like that exist in every one of those guys, just like the did the guys on the older list. The Tigers flat out lack guys that reasonably project to everyday roles in the big leagues....to get them, they need guys with tools to somehow overcome significant flaws in their game and they need that to happen with multiple players. That is exceptionally unlikely to happen.

About 5-7 years ago Tigers fans were daydreaming about the future of the team with guys like Beau Burrows, Kevin Ziomek, and Spencer Turnbull I'm the rotation, an outfield that was some combination of Christin Stewart, Mike Gerber, Derek Hill, Steven Moya, and Jose Azocar, an infield that included JaCoby Jones and AJ Simcox, and a bullpen teeming with an abundance arms like Joe Jimenez, Drew VerHagen, Jairo Labourt, Jeff Ferrell, Luis Cessa, and Drew Smith. They were also dreaming of lottery tickets like Adam Ravenelle, Gerson Moreno, Arvicent Perez, Christhian Tortosa, Zac Shepherd, and Javier Betancourt. 

If you're able to look at that list through the lense of 2015-2017 knowledge, it's remarkably similar to the list you rattled off....Pacheco/Shepherd, Betancourt/Santana, Crouch/Perez, and on, and on, and on.

9 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I would like to test this theory...

Because:

A) If our system is quite bad right now, as you say, then we cannot expect more than a couple of guys from the following list to make it to MLB.

B) If however, 3 or more from the following list can conceivably make it to MLB, and be productive, (you can change it to 4 or 5... pick whatever number you want), then we do NOT have a weak system, just a lot of young talented guys that will take a while to develop... which is what I am saying.

So if you would indulge me (or anyone else who wants to take a shot at this)... out of the following list of prospects, who has NO chance of ever making it to MLB, for more than a cup, simply because they are not talented enough to do so. If you can NOT take them off this list as having no chance whatsoever.. then that means exactly what I've said... they have the talent, the potential... but have to go through the development process/ their learning curves to make it all the way.

Short story: If they have a chance, they have the talent. If they just don't have the talent (Org guys or worse), they don't have a chance. (Aside from an emergency/ cup of coffee, or similar... which doesn't count.)

If a guy might only put up a 4 or 5 WAR career (4th OF'er, utility guy, reliever...) that still counts.

So who on the following list has absolutely NO chance of ever making it to MLB:

Dillon Dingler, Josh Crouch, Peyton Graham, Jace Jung, Wenceel Perez, Gage Workman, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequera, Trei Cruz, Colten Keith, Adinso Reyes, Izaac Pacheco, Jose De La Cruz, Parker Meadows, Roberto Campos, Kerry Carpenter, Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden, Dylan Smith, Brant Hurter, Eddy Felix, Donal Montas, Juan Ruiz.

I've spent the better part of the last 15-20 years scouting and analyzing prospects across baseball. One thing I've learned that fans often don't grasp....at any given time, every team in the league has a list of players that looks exactly like that; a bunch of guys with some tools/ability. Many of them will cap out in Double-A or Triple-A, some will get a cup of coffee or a bench role, and a couple will be larger contributors. Regardless of how highly you think of that list of players as a fan, I promise you that will be the distribution.

The thing stronger systems have, aside from a longer list of prospects like those you listed (aka depth), is a separate ( and admittedly shorter) list of players with greater ability and greater odds of being significant contributors....guys you actually begin to plan for as part of your big league roster. The Tigers don't currently have that list, even a very short version of it, and when combined with a general lack of depth, you have a weak system.

3 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I don't think we have a weak, talent-deficient system.

Yes, yes you do. The Tigers system is quite bad right now.

Identify the guys that can get outs at the big league level, get them there as quick as reasonably possible, and use them how you need to until they break. That's the strategy and that's the reality. Anything else is all bull shit.