The MLB app on my phone keeps excitedly broadcasting news about another dramatic “Home Run robbery!” My natural suspicions aroused I decided to “ask the Internet” and this is what I found.
1. Declining Fence Heights and Distances. Modern ballparks have trended toward shorter and more uniform fence heights, making robberies physically possible for more outfielders.
Direct Impacts: Specific renovations have directly led to more robberies. For example, lowering the center field fence at Rogers Centre (10 to 8 feet) and Comerica Park (8.5 to 7 feet) immediately resulted in several successful "thefts" that would have been impossible with the old dimensions.
Average Heights: The average wall height in center field is now 8.4 feet, making it the primary zone for robberies. In contrast, stadiums with higher walls, like Wrigley Field (up to 16 feet), are often "dead zones" where robberies almost never occur.
2. Increase in Fly Balls and "Wall Action" The "launch angle revolution" has resulted in more balls being hit in the air with enough distance to clear the fence, increasing the opportunity for a catch at the wall.
Frequency: In the decade from 2005-2014, robberies occurred roughly once every 60 games; by 2019, that frequency increased to once every 29 games.
3. Advanced Defensive Positioning
Teams now use Statcast data and analytics to position outfielders more effectively.
Deeper Positioning: Outfielders are often positioned deeper than in previous eras (sometimes 5-9 feet deeper on average), which actually shortens the distance they must run to reach the wall in time for a jump.
Training and Technology: Players receive detailed reports on their jump times, routes, and catch probabilities, allowing them to refine the "science and art" of tracking both the ball and the wall simultaneously.