Bobrob’s 2023 Preseason Predictions

[bobrob2004]

 Bobrob’s 2023 Preseason Prediction #14 – Matthew Gregory Vierling

Similar to third base, the Tigers have multiple options for left field, including Matt Vierling, Kerry Carpenter, Akil Baddoo, and Eric Haase.  The final roster decision could come down to Carpenter or Baddoo*, almost assuring that Vierling will get an opening day roster spot.  Vierling played six different positions last year with the Philadelphia Phillies, including all three outfield spots, third base, second base, and first base, so his versatility will come in handy.  He’ll likely get more playing time than a typical bench player as manager A.J. Hinch likes to mix and match his players (there’s also a possible righty/lefty platoon situation here with either Carpenter or Baddoo).  Vierling did play in 117 games last year with 357 plate appearances, which is more than a typical bench player.

Career ML stats:

2021 – 77 PA | .324/.364/.479 | 2 HR | 5.2% BB% | 26% K% | 121 wRC+

2022 – 357 PA | .246/.297/.351 | 6 HR | 6.4% BB% | 19.6% K% | 81 wRC+

Sherman had an unsustainable .420 BABIP in 2021, which led to good fortune.  In 2022, his BABIP was a more reasonable .290.  However, there is evidence that his luck was flipped in 2022; he had a xBA of .279 and an xSLG of .408, suggesting that he has more power than the results show.  In the minor leagues, Vierling had an ISO of .141, including a .188 ISO in 95 plate appearances in AAA last year.  In the Majors last year, he only had a .105 ISO.  His hard hit rate on batted balls was 34.1 percent, slightly better than league average (30.2 percent).

His career Major League walk rate is 6.2 percent, which is way below his rate in AA (11.8 percent) and AAA (10.3 percent), so it’s reasonable to assume he’ll improve on this number.  His strikeout rate of 19.6 percent was similar to his 18.2 percent in the minors, so there’s probably not going to be a big improvement in strikeouts.  Finally, he does have some speed, stealing 22 bases in A-Ball in 2019 and 15 bases between AAA and the Majors last year.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see double digits again in 2023, especially if he is frequently used as a pinch runner late in the game (not to mention the bigger bases).

Being a right-handed batter, he naturally hits better against left-handed pitching:

Vs. RHP – 256 PA | .228/.285/.339

Vs. LHP – 178 PA | .307/.343/.423

If Vierling struggles early on, I can see a strict platoon situation for awhile.

Vierling is entering his age 26 season, a prime age for a breakout year…that is if everything comes together (spoiler alert: it rarely does).  He has some Major League experience and doesn’t really have more to prove in AAA.  If he can get his walk rate up to where it was in the minors and his luck evens out, he should be at least an average hitter for 2023.  If all else fails, he should still end up being a quality utility player, considering he’s at least an average defender.

*Baddoo was indeed sent down to AAA

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 296 AB | .258/.316/.395 | 7 HR | 33 RBI | 9 SB | 23 BB | 65 K

ZiPS DC – 325 AB | .239/.297/.353 | 6 HR | 30 RBI | 9 SB | 24 BB | 74 K

THE BAT X – 337 AB | .260/.312/.399 | 7 HR | 36 RBI | 11 SB | 23 BB | 72 K

ATC – 334 AB | .254/.309/.384 | 7 HR | 34 RBI | 9 SB | 24 BB | 74 K

FGDC – 324 AB | .249/.306/.374 | 7 HR | 33 RBI | 9 SB | 25 BB | 73 K

RotoChamp – 332 AB | .256/.308/.386 | 7 HR | 34 RBI | 10 SB | 24 BB | 73 K

CBS Sports – N/A

ESPN – 393 AB | .254/.311/.384 | 9 HR | 42 RBI | 15 SB | 31 BB | 86 K

My Prediction:

2022 Prediction – N/A

2022 Actual – 325 AB | .246/.297/.351 | 6 HR | 32 RBI | 7 SB | 23 BB | 70 K

 

2023 Prediction – 340 AB | .250/.319/.385 | 8 HR | 32 RBI | 11 SB | 34 BB | 79 K

[bobrob2004]

Time to see how bad my predictions are: 

Javier Baez:

2023 Prediction – 544 AB | .265/.304/.449 | 24 HR | 73 RBI | 10 SB | 26 BB | 162 K

2023 Actual – 510 AB | .222/.267/.325 | 9 HR | 59 RBI | 12 SB | 24 BB | 125 K

Eduardo Rodriguez:

2023 Prediction – 128 2/3 IP | 6-7 W/L | 4.20 ERA | 1.415 WHIP | 117 K | 47 BB

2023 Actual – 152 2/3 IP | 13-9 W/L | 3.30 ERA | 1.153 WHIP | 143 K | 48 BB

Riley Greene:

2023 Prediction – 521 AB | .267/.338/.438 | 16 HR | 65 RBI | 8 SB | 54 BB | 152 K

2023 Actual – 378 AB | .288/.349/.447 | 11 HR | 37 RBI | 7 SB | 35 BB | 114 K

Michael Lorenzen:

2023 Prediction – 123 1/3 IP | 6-10 W/L | 4.45 ERA | 1.330 WHIP | 100 K | 58 BB

2023 Actual (total) – 153 IP | 9-9 W/L | 4.18 ERA | 1.209 WHIP | 111 K | 47 BB

Jonathan Schoop:

2023 Prediction – 546 AB | .253/.288/.390 | 16 HR | 55 RBI | 8 SB | 23 BB | 125 K

2023 Actual – 136 AB | .213/.278/.272 | 0 HR | 7 RBI | 0 SB | 13 BB | 37 K

Matt Boyd:

2023 Prediction – 129 1/3 IP | 7-7 W/L | 4.18 ERA | 1.338 WHIP | 126 K | 42 BB

2023 Actual – 71 IP | 5-5 W/L | 5.45 ERA | 1.324 WHIP | 73 K | 25 BB

Austin Meadows:

2023 Prediction – 492 AB | .254/.340/.429 | 20 HR | 62 RBI | 4 SB | 60 BB | 121 K

2023 Actual – 21 AB | .238/.238/.286 | 0 HR | 2 RBI | 0 SB | 0 BB | 3 K

Eric Haas:

2023 Prediction – 390 AB | .246/.299/.462 | 23 HR | 60 RBI | 29 BB | 123 K

2023 Actual (total) – 274 AB | .201/.247/.281 | 4 HR | 26 RBI | 17 BB | 81 K

Miguel Cabrera:

2023 Prediction – 300 AB | .250/.298/.313 | 4 HR | 33 RBI | 0 SB | 20 BB | 78 K

2023 Actual – 334 AB | .257/.322/.353 | 4 HR | 34 RBI | 0 SB | 31 BB | 74 K

Matt Manning:

2023 Prediction –136 1/3 IP | 8-8 W/L | 3.63 ERA | 1.254 WHIP | 122 K | 46 BB

2023 Actual – 78 IP | 5-4 W/L | 3.58 ERA | 1.038 WHIP | 50 K | 21 BB

Spencer Torkelson:

2023 Prediction – 538 AB | .232/.320/.396 | 20 HR | 54 RBI | 0 SB | 65 BB | 135 K

2023 Actual – 606 AB | .233/.313/.446 | 31 HR | 94 RBI | 3 SB | 67 BB | 171 K

Spencer Turnbull:

2023 Prediction – 125 IP | 7-7 W/L | 3.67 ERA | 1.232 WHIP | 113 K | 40 BB

2023 Actual – 31 IP | 1-4 W/L | 7.26 ERA | 1.677 WHIP | 24 K | 15 BB

Nick Maton:

2023 Prediction – 261 AB | .241/.322/.375 | 6 HR | 29 RBI | 1 SB | 32 BB | 87 K

2023 Actual – 249 AB | .173/.288/.305 | 8 HR | 32 RBI | 1 SB | 38 BB | 73 K

Matt Vierling:

2023 Prediction – 340 AB | .250/.319/.385 | 8 HR | 32 RBI | 11 SB | 34 BB | 79 K

2023 Actual – 479 AB | .261/.329/.388 | 10 HR | 44 RBI | 6 SB | 44 BB | 112 K

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by bobrob2004

[bobrob2004]

Going back, I wish I had done Jake Rogers, Akil Baddoo, Kerry Carpenter, and Tarik Skubal instead of Eric Haas, Austin Meadows, Jonathan Schoop, and Spencer Turnbull, but there was a lot of uncertainty in Spring Training this year. 

[Dave Christian]

27 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

Going back, I wish I had done Jake Rogers, Akil Baddoo, Kerry Carpenter, and Tarik Skubal instead of Eric Haas, Austin Meadows, Jonathan Schoop, and Spencer Turnbull, but there was a lot of uncertainty in Spring Training this year. 

As I was going through the stats I was wishing that as well.

Nice piece of work putting those stats together!

It is very interesting.