NYLion
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The Lions now have essentially two 2nd year guards, an undrafted free agent center and a rookie at right tackle starting this season. There's some upside with these guys but this could be a big problem.
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It's the same young core but they lost a lot of key vets that were huge parts of that 15 win team. Ragnow, Decker, Anzalone, Montgomery and the star safety duo might very well never be the same again so I can see why pundits aren't as high on the group, not to mention the setback season last year. I think Holmes has done a good job rebuilding the offensive line, there are still weapons all over the field on offense and I think the defensive line will be much better with a fully healthy Hutch and McNeil and I expect a big jump from Tyliek plus the schedule on paper is one of the easiest in the league but the Back 7 has loads of question marks and the offensive line while more talented this season has unproven guys at both the guard spots and right tackle so it's hard to know what to expect from this group whereas two years ago there was more certainty with the vet leaders.
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Yep, I was honestly being a little conservative with the Daniels numbers tbh. Ausar is the opposite of Duren for me, his impact goes well beyond the numbers while Duren's impact is far less than his numbers would suggest. I think Ausar at $30m/yr is a little rich but I could see him getting that, he's a huge part of this team. Also, I've watched enough of Ausar and Daniels to know at least IMO that Ausar is the more dynamic player. I know the numbers favor Daniels but I'd rather have Ausar long term.
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I said teams had the cap space to sign Duren not that he'd get a max offer sheet, big difference. I did think there was a market out there for him so I guess I was wrong on that, so far. I'll bet anything that he gets more than 4 years $80m or 5 years $100m. Ausar's impact goes beyond the numbers, the Pistons are a way better team when Ausar is on the court, he has a big impact on winning. I expect that he'll get the Daniels contract if not more. I'd like to see any projection out there that predicts him getting only $20m/yr.
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There's no way Ausar is getting as little as 4 years $80m. He's going to get 4 years $100m at minimum when you take the Daniels comp into account with cap inflation, I think we just need to accept that. Finishing 2nd in DPOY voting and being arguably the biggest disruptor in the league full court is a big feather in his cap regardless of the offense he puts up.
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The difference is that you can live with Ausar's offensive flaws because he has an elite skill, like 2nd best player in the league defensively elite a guy who is an impact gamechanger while with Duren you can't live with his flaws because he has no game changing skill to compensate. I wouldn't hate retaining him at a reasonable price but I honestly think the best option here is to let him play out his final RFA year under the QO which will give the Pistons the flexibility to add a significant piece in season and let him walk at the end of the season using that cap flexibility to add in a cheaper rim running center and a legit #2 option eventually. In other words, like I said before, Ausar isn't the problem the problem is Ausar+Duren and I'm keeping the guy that has an elite skill.
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There's nothing wrong with a Cade/Ausar core, it's the Cade/Ausar/Duren core that's the problem. Ausar can be a core member of a team that has a #2 option alongside it's franchise player like Rodman with Thomas/Dumars and Prince or Ben Wallace with Billups and Rip but you can't have another non-offensive creator/shooter as your second highest paid guy with Ausar and expect to be a Championship team. Duren is the issue here, not Ausar. The Pistons already have their franchise guy/all world defensive guy from the Championship teams, they're missing their Rip, Dumars, Rasheed Wallace guy.
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Yes you can but not if you're paying a limited center near max money. The Pistons are going to have to make a choice between Ausar and Duren eventually, you can't pay both of them big money then eventually Cade the supermax in, what is it, two years now? and ever expect to compete for a championship. Ausar is the guy I choose of the two because he has an elite skill, Duren just doesn't have any special/elite qualities that you can bank on to live with the flaws so it's an easy choice for me. Ultimately I think both get paid and we just hope and pray that they develop other facets of their game.
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I don't think Duren will be anything more than a rim runner with maybe occasional shots from outside but I don't see it ever being a regular part of his repertoire. The one thing he has over Drummond for instance is that he shoots well from the free throw line so he seemingly has the touch to develop a consistent outside shot but I haven't seen any hints in his 4 pro seasons that he has the willingness to do it. Ausar will never be a factor offensively, I'm resigned to this. His shot is broken and he doesn't look for his shot much anyway, he is what he is IMO. Holland has only played two seasons in the league and I see glimpses in his game of a guy that can develop a multi-faceted offensive arsenal. I don't think it's likely that he ever becomes a consistent force offensively but at least see flashes in his game to become that that the other two don't have.
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Kawhi is the only one that didn't want to come to Detroit as far as we know. Dallas was never trading Kyrie and the Lakers simply outbid the Pistons to keep Reaves. That's essentially it like you said, the Pistons improvement will have to come internally. Personally I don't see the offensive upside in Duren and Ausar (I think they pretty much are what they are at this point) so Holland is the guy with some offensive growth potential, we've seen incremental improvements in his three point shooting and he just seems to have the skillset to expand his offensive game eventually so he's the player that could raise the Pistons ceiling although I do think it's a longshot that Holland becomes THAT guy. I just don't see it coming from outside because, one, I don't see Langdon being the type of GM willing to part with enough assets to bring in an impact player and, two, cap flexibility is pretty much shot once Duren and Ausar get extended which seems inevitable on both fronts despite the posturing from Duren and his camp.
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I have no idea how to rank the east and where the Pistons will fall but if we base it on quality of roster, the Pistons have fallen pretty far down the totem pole. The Knicks, Sixers, Cavs and Celtics are all probably ahead likely Toronto too if Kawhi is ever healthy then you have Miami with Giannis, Indiana with Haliburton and Orlando who could have easily knocked the Pistons out in the 1st round. Not to mention ascending teams like Atlanta, Charlotte (I don't think LaMelo will be that big a loss) and Washington. There's a possibility albeit remote that the Pistons fall to a play-in team. I doubt it because Cade alone is that good but the ceiling is limited when you only have one shot creator/scorer on the team. A guy like Holland is a real wild card, he's the only player on this team that has the ability to become a solid second scorer so if he breaks out that could be a gamechanger but that's a big IF. The bottom line is that the east is WAY stronger this season, the strongest that it's been in years perhaps decades. Last year was the Pistons real opportunity to strike and make a finals run and that came and went when Huerter was the big deadline add.
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He has a degenerative knee condition. I'm sure he'll get back on the field at some point but the Kerby we used to know and love is for all intents and purposes likely done. I expect the same with Branch, I can't see either returning to their pro bowl form.
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50 is their ceiling? I'll take that bet quite easily. I'm not very high on the team either but there's no way that a best case scenario is 50 wins, I know that you always lean pessimistic but that's just way too pessimistic. The Pistons are a team made for the regular season, they have a player who is a matchup problem for just about any team in the league and they're deep just like last year and teams that are deep tend to play very well in the regular season. Playoffs is where depth matters less and where you need multiple scoring options and playmakers and that's where the team as currently constructed will struggle but this will likely be another very good regular season.
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Harris will likely be cut and the Pistons are thin at SF and PF so they did need a body there.
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Signing the QO probably isn't a great move for him either. He's costing himself millions this year and the risk of potential injury or even regression further hindering his value. Whatever the case, he's getting some bad advice and it could cost him and cause issues for the team.
