Screwball

I'm all for alternative sources of energy, but it's not as easy and quick as some seem to want us to believe. How much minerals (lithium, cobalt, etc) are needed for all the batteries (lots) and how do we get them (mining). How do we dispose of/recycle them once used, and how much energy will that take? What about the grid required for significant EV usage to charge at home, or on our roadways, and what is the cost and timeline to fund, plan, and create the infrastructure to do so? The grid should also integrate with wind, solar, nuclear, and whatever other energy sources we have now. It's all about EROEI (energy returned on energy invested). You don't mine 500 tons of lithium without energy, and lots of it, and 500 tons is nothing compared to what is needed, and it's not cheap. We have oil derricks all over the county, but they don't pump. Too expensive to come empty the tanks and haul away the oil. EROEI is not worth it. For investors, the key (IMO) is watching the transformational plan from what we have now to what we end up with in the future, to see what companies/sectors are going to see the funding to move forward. In other words, there will no doubt companies who benefit from the transformation and could be a very profitable trade/investment. The question will be who and when. I have not followed the push for green energy space but I would start with finding what the plan actually is. Is there such a plan that spells out the step by step transition to green energy and what methods will be utilized and what infrastructure will be required to do so? Maybe there is, I have no idea, but I would start there looking to find something that my be of value to an investor, and the timing it will require. My 2 cents.

Let me know when they have battery powered excavators too.

Not the Onion *** While I'm here. The other problem with the house across the street is it's not worth that much to begin with. Cheap credit and easy money does this. Not like we haven't watched this movie before. This is Cornhole, where things are cheap compared to the median and this is overpriced. *** It will be fun to watch the tape tomorrow for the FOMC release. Will be be 50 or 75 bps? If they go 50 I expect a strong move to the upside as I think the market has priced in at least 50, for now.

Historical 30 yr rates going back to 1971 from Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages Since 1971 I would do historical banking interest rates but I'm out of Kleenex right now. Thanks assholes!

Who are the cash people? I'm guessing people like Blackstone (private equity) and/or foreigners. Blackstone is now 'the largest owner of real estate in the world That is from 2015.

This reminds me of something else. I was remodeling my basement last year. In October of 2020 I was buying 4x8x1/2 un-sanded plywood for a little less than $30 bucks a sheet. This is up from low $20 range the last time I bought. 2x4s were going for almost $5 when they used to be less than 4. By January, the plywood was over $50 bucks and the 2x4s were over $6, so I stopped. Screw that. Around the same time, I went to my son's house who lives in a sub-division around Columbus, Ohio. Just in the last year (at that time) they started at least 8 or 10 new homes. How the hell does a home builder square the skyrocketing price of lumber with a house he quoted for X amount? And what does the person who wanted the house built do when the builder comes knocking - saying I need more money - which is the only thing I can think of he can do. Of course product inflation is not exclusive to homes. I've been retired for a few years now, but I wonder how much machine tooling has risen.

So are all the people who have recently bought. They are underwater already. A house across the street from me sold a couple months ago for 144,000. The people who bought it put a for sale sign in the yard a few weeks ago with an asking price of 155,000. They are screwed. It won't sell, and if it did, they won't even get the 144,000. The machine is already broken.

I've had conversations with several of them and I wasn't impressed with any. I know the guy who replaced the guy I was talking about above. He took the classes, passed his tests, got the license and took over for this guy. He was previously an IT guy. I used to work with him. He probably didn't know what an option was before that. He didn't last a year. Another funny story about them. In 2009 I was sitting at my desk during the market hours (and the crash). I had CNBC on the TV, my laptop and extra screen were running my trading software. I get a knock at the door. It's none other than a guy in a green jacket carrying a small briefcase. I can see the Edward Jones patch on his jacket. This should be fun, so we talked a little bit at the door, then I invited him in. As soon as he saw my laptop, extra screen, and TV, he said, well I guess I'm done here, and scurried out the door. I laughed. So I sent an e-mail to a financial advisor buddy of mine who runs his own business. I told him I just had a EJ guy bang on my door and I never knew they made house calls. He asked me if he had a vacuum cleaner too. I got a big kick out of that.

Another bad print; Producer Price Index News Release summary - from the BLS PPI is a leading indicator of CPI

I have to share this little funny I had today. I went to a local tavern and ran into a guy I haven’t talked to for maybe 10 years. He started out as a commodity trader for a local farm co-op. He went on to pass the tests required to be the head weenie of a local branch of Edward Jones. He is now living elsewhere, retired, and is here for a week. Probably 8-10 people around the bar. The conversation was about the market, and how much money they were all losing. So of course they are asking him what they should do. Of course he has no answer, other than saying he only has stocks in some Hawaii something, and something else that didn’t make much sense. Which is nothing more than financial advisor speak bullshit they learned to pass the test that helps teach them to say said bullshit. He then went on to say something to the effect of – I don’t know what to tell you – other than I’m glad I’m not still doing it. Of course. So the guy sitting right beside him said something like “WTF? You are the one who put me in all this stuff – and all you have is I don’t know what to tell you?” That pretty much ended the conversation. Passing the Series 6 is enough to allow some arrogant dick to fuck up a lot of people’s money, the rest just fits into the systematic looting of the average person. It is not hard to pass, can be done in a short period of time, and the more tests you pass the more damage you can do. Way too easy when trusted with a bunch of people’s money. Fiduciary duty they call it. I call it a scam. But it was fun watching him sweat. And besides, he chose the job, and if he didn’t think shit like this wouldn’t happen – then he is a dumb ass. So now we have established he is not a good fiduciary, but also a dumb ass. To be fair, I’m not sure if anyone can be a good fiduciary in today’s world. As Carlin might say – the game is rigged.

A quick Google search will get you this; We don't have those numbers, but the same pickle. Great work geniuses.

People have noticed; Mortgage demand falls to the lowest level in 22 years amid rising rates and slowing home sales And the Fed is on deck; June Fed Meeting Preview: Markets Expect Another Big Rate Hike

The market didn't like this print. Took a shit on release. Chart; one minute S&P futures

Speaking of programming languages; anyone ever use or are familiar with "Forth?" Truly ugly stuff.

In 1973, as a junior in high school, during the oil embargo when we had to ration gasoline (which was a complete zoo, and a bunch of pissed off people), I was armed with one of these puppies along with a wad of bills in my shirt pocket. Good luck with that today. I've thought about setting up a stand out in a public place with a cash register change drawer, a laptop, and timer. Here, make 20 bucks if you can give the right change back in 10 seconds once the random number hits the screen. Of course take a video of people trying to do this. I think it would be great comedy.

A personal finance class would be good for anyone at any age, adjusted for the level they need addressed. Like compounding. Look how much you will gain by saving your money as it compounds over time. Oh, wait. Saving's interest rates are what???? Bad example. Credit interest rates and inflation rates say "hold my beer."

That's amazing. I can't speak for all school systems except for the one I am familiar with - what a mess. I would guess they are not the only one. I teach a college STEM class at a local college, and also at a local vocational school filled with high school kids from 14 surrounding high schools. There is not much learning going on, and IMNSHO we are turning out a bunch of imbeciles. Have you had a geometry class? Yes, of course. What is a diameter? The size of a circle. What is a radius? Crickets. Great! One of the teachers told me he gave them a 15 question test on fractions. His entire class (17) missed all but 2. I had some downtime one day so to have a little fun I asked my class how many know how to make change (like from a cash register). Not a clue. Which is obvious when you go to a store - if the register didn't tell them the change - they would need a calculator. So I taught them how to make change. Wow! That's pretty cool. Yep. But they really exceptional with phones. And let it be noted; the two years of zoom classes and partial shutdowns did not help with the quality of learning one bit.

When he finds out he needs to eat? I couldn't help it, I'll let myself out.

Your quote is not quite the full story of our global energy logistics, politics, and most importantly - price - of crude oil. Sanctions matter to prices, especially on the world market. Our world depends (at this time) on oil. The cost of energy is trickle down, and expensive oil hurts the people who can least afford it. Crude hit 120 bucks a barrel early this morning, rolled over around 115 this afternoon (after some OPEC horseshit). Back in 2008 (July, check me) crude hit 147/bbl - and we all know what happened between 2008-2010 (some will blame the banks (raises hand)) but the burden on our people due to the cost of gas helped blow up that bubble. This country cannot, at this time, absorb 4 1/2 to 5 dollar prices at the pump for an extended period of time. The price of our gas is dictated by the price of crude on the world markets. Watch the crude tape - that will tell you how bad shit will get - the higher crude goes, the worse it will be. Everything else is all bullshit.

This is how the S&P traded around the Fed release. The red ellipse is the action at 2 when the release hits. I get a kick out of that stuff. Doesn't really change shit in the big picture, but fun to watch. The only thing that matters is the Fed's balance sheet.

This guy is a hoot too.

This guys always has some neat chart porn;

It is not a privilege to operate a business in a society. It is a matter of profit and loss. If you don't make enough money, you go out of business. That's the market. The market is us. No matter the shit show we have been bullshitted into believing in. What a spectacular day we had, speaking of the market. I'm guessing Jerome Powell isn't getting much sleep. Nor the other FOMC financial idiots.

You are exactly right. And I will add, you are a stat guy, so I respect your opinion. There are all kinds of studies out there one can read, and I've read quite a few. It all depends on how it is presented as you say - along with the agenda they are pushing. You can argue this until you run out of links and Twitter posts. Doesn't matter IMO. It gets political and then all bets are off - insanity ensues. My point - even the studies that show it doesn't work = also show, for some it did. Many make a poor case for why they don't as well. You never know, taking a few pills, no more risky than an aspirin, might save a life or two. I'm good with that.