Screwball

Is anyone else having trouble posting here? This thread or the board in general? I have had trouble accessing and can't post. Not sure this will work. Yes, cleared cookies.

test

We are back in the green, despite what the broader market is doing. The gap is now closed. I would like to see this close above that level ($67.49) so it becomes the resistance, and potential sell stop. It had moved lower this morning along with the broader market, and less chances of disruption from the storm, but might have reversed on this news; OPEC+ Discusses Cutting Oil Output at Next Week’s Meeting - Bloomberg **** FOREX chart porn.

Fuck the EU 🙂

The only thing we need to understand is the financial wizards of the world are trying to put toothpaste back in the tube.

Trade update. Our trade may be wearing thin. Down a little today, and as we know, the trend was down anyway. It got to $67.45 which is .04 from filling that gap. Looking at the hurricane tracking and the shipping traffic, the disruption may be about over, if not over. Those are tankers. Only a few in the path it appears. I will watch the action and won't hesitate to take a profit, but will let it run and see what happens - for now.

The currency stuff isn't my bag. But I know the potential consequences that come with it. I go back to the floor trader I quoted above. Depending on what to believe, the machine seems to be spitting oil and making funny noises. Who holds who's debt, and who's will be fucked? Every currency against the dollar is getting smoked. I don't know if this has ever happened. He's spot on with these kind of moves spells trouble - and this is maybe an example. Currency markets are huge leverage, because they don't move much, so the only way to make money is with a bunch of it (money). More money, more pain. That will go on til it don't.

Now I to have to give up chart porn.

Trade update after today's close. Still holding, making some money. Closed at $67.13, so we are up $396 since purchased.

Given the pipelines that were blown up where right in NATO's "lake" I'm not sure this is anything but propaganda.

They capitulated, and investors think our Fed will too, which is what's driving the market today.

I think our world lunatics are working on that.

Now that I've looked at this, it turns out to be a really neat setup. Depending on which way oil goes (and our derivative), and it goes up, there is a gap to fill. Over time "almost" all gaps will fill. See chart porn below; If this gap closes, which it will at some point IMO, the price will be $67.49. You could pull the ripcord right there and make about 450 bucks and be happy as a pig in the mud. Or, you get stopped out and take the 200 dollar beating.

Trade update. The trade is still in play, but I adjusted it a bit. I screwed up when I entered the sell order and it cancelled. Then, looking at the chart (another screw up because I missed this) I see an obvious support level just to the left so I entered another sell order at $63.15. This time "GTC" or "good till cancelled." But we now lose $201.21 if it trips. This is really a stupid trade, but fun to see what might happen. I can see a bunch of those Robinhood traders doing something like this, but they have been fleeced and many long gone. Along with a bunch more to come. This should be a short term trade to make money on potential disruption of energy logistics. Or maybe not... If the broader market is going the other direction, you are going against the trend. The "trend is your friend" as they say. I'm also watching (the price of crude obviously since this is a derivative of crude) RBOB gasoline and natty gas. They are trending with crude, as one would expect, but natty is up a couple percent tonight.

At 9:33 today I bought (not really - paper money account) 150 shares of USO at $64.49 for a total of $9673.50. Of course since then the market has turned over and this ETF is now trading at $64.15 and we are underwater. For a trade like this I'm only willing to lose a couple hundred bucks, or around 2 percent, so I set a sell stop at $63.20, which would lose us $193.47. The S&P peaked at 9:41 am at 3717, but has dropped to 3646 as of 12:10. A reversal of 71 points. We are liable to get stopped out of this trade.

There is an old saying in the market; don't try to catch a falling knife. That would be today for the oil trade. Everything down. No good entry. Down %2.5 as I type this. GBP/USD recovered about half of what it lost last night. World financial wizards are mostly silent.

To my point above about uncertainty. This guy is an old floor trader and has been in the business for a long time.

That isn't the only cause, and certainly not the entire cause. This is a boiling frog, and has been. CME Halts British Pound Futures After Flash Crash to New Record Low vs the Dollar **** The S&P futures are down about 22 as I type this. Crude is about $78 and has drifted down all night. I will wait and see where this goes as we get closer to the open, and probably wait and see what oil does (and USO) before pulling the trigger on the trade. IF the FOREX stuff rattles the markets it could drag crude along with it. I have to go so I will have to see what the action looks like when I get back home around 2. Since this is a "impulse" trade, I can't just set a buy order or limit order with a stop, you would need to watch what happens and pull the trigger when and if it presents itself.

Almost bedtime as I have a class tomorrow, so I'm looking at the futures before I go nappy. Crude is up slightly @ $78.90ish. S&P futures down 17. See what happens while we sleep, but there are some potential problems. From the FOREX world the GBP/USD had a flash crash. Twitter said the CME halted futures. The pair is down around 3% which is huge in the FOREX world. Read; the weather may not matter. We'll see what it looks like in the morning.

Let's have a little fun here. I admit up front I haven't done my homework on the potential disruption due to the hurricane - but is there a trade here (short term)? For reference, the latest crude print. Note the $78.04 low from Friday. Come Monday we are going to go long oil because we think it might jump given the hurricane. The easiest way for the retail trader to do so is using an ETF. In this case - USO. Closed Friday at $65.32 with a low of $64.65. So the plan in this paper trade is to buy some USO come Monday morning on open - depending on the current price of course. We're going to spend $10,000. The success of this trade will depend on the weather at the gulf coast. If it is bad, probably a good trade. If not, you can get smoked. The trend for crude is down (see chart). We are only looking for a few percent. Maybe 4-5 percent over a couple of weeks. I can see people making this trade so I'm curious how it might shake out.

Anyone who watches the hurricane season, please chime in here. Is there a threat to the gulf that could effect the oil/gas shipping in and out?

Sounds about right - the financilization of any and everything under the sun, and the more money you create, the better (for them). And when they blow the whole fucking world up we bail their criminal asses out. That's a feature, not a bug. Fuck banks.

I'm watching the 3636.87 level, which is the next support level. Might not see it today.

Nixon, Bretton Woods, and the gold standard changed all this. That was August 15, 1971. And before anyone jumps my shit - I'm not saying anything good or bad about this - just noting the date.

I used to build a bond ladders using 1 month T-Bills. They didn't pay much but over the course of a year I could get about 1.7 percent on a ladder by rotating 4 - $10,000 buys a week apart. So you had 4 bills, with one maturing each week (which I would re-purchase). This is slightly better than the return of .01 percent the bank was paying on money that just sat in the account. Yields went so low it wasn't worth doing it, and at one time I think they even stopped issuing them. You can do the same thing with a brokerage account. Both setup through Treasury Direct (comes straight out of my bank account). I checked today and they prices are back to where it is worth doing. You will make about 20 bucks a month on 10 grand. With 4 bills, that's 80 bucks a month, or 960 a year. Not much, but free money on cash sitting in a bank. You might not get quite that much as the rates fluctuate (bond auction), so the return might not be 2.4 as is the example I used. You can also find some decent paying corporate bonds that mature in short periods of time, that are not junk rated, if one's goal is less risky investments and the ability to become liquid in a short period of time in case a better return presents itself. Yes, the saver has been taken out to the yard, beaten, kicked, pissed on, and then ran over.