Screwball

And then some.

I haven't watched any of the Fed pressers in a long time other than a little today. But I got curious today and did a little poking around. The Fed announced an open ended buying of MBS March 15, 2020. If you look at the chart below, it is the exact day where you see a bubble that says 2191.86. Then look up and to the right and you will see a bubble that says 4818.62. That is Jan 4, 2022. That is a 3 year chart. As you can see, once you get to the top bubble, the market turns over. So what happened on the day of the second bubble? The date is Jan 4th. Did anything happen that day? Yep. Dow drops nearly 400 points in first loss of 2022, as traders brace for a more aggressive Fed The money line; Discussed reducing it's balance sheet... All 9 trillion of it. For context, a 5 year chart. Their balance sheet has expanded from 4 to 9 trillion (rounding) in the last 2 years. I wonder how much the total MBS purchases (over a trillion) actually add up to, and what we accomplished for creating all this money (I guess, since this isn't bonds, the debt isn't monetized, so where did it come from?). One thing we did was send the S&P some 2600 points higher, or quick, someone do the math - 120% if you hit bottom to top. And this is only a 2 year run. Ain't that friken sweet? Sure, but for who? How many people doubled their money in the last two years? Guessing it ain't most of us. And now they are talking about more rate hikes, limiting MBS purchases - in other words - taking away the punch bowl. Usual policy says when inflation is running hot you raise rates. The market expected 50bp, got it, then ripped to the upside, along with the rip went commodities, with crude closing around 108. Not helpful. We'll see where this goes, but the Fed has a market that turned over while we have a 8.5 inflation rate and a last quarter -1.4 GDP. Who you gonna save? Sure as fuck won't be us chumps.

Purchasing MBS started in 2009 when the bankers blew up the world, ended in 2010. Re-started in 2020 due to COVID, still going, and I don't think the dual mandate of the Fed includes being a home building cop.

From that bank rate article. The text is kind out of sequence, but the point valid. Speaking of the Fed, can anyone explain why they are buying MBS to begin with?

First, I have to correct myself. Above I posted "Once COVID hit they had to raise rates." Should read "lower." My bad. **** To address this, it was fun to watch. No chart porn here, so I have some. Today's S&P by the minute. The two cyan lines are the Fed release at 2pm, and the start of their presser at 2:30pm. I watched part of it. Adding to Del's point; A link to their unwinding plan; Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Powell spoke until almost 4 if I remember right. What the market was looking for is the QT numbers. Everybody expected 50bp, some wanting/guessing 75. I don't know what the Street was expecting for the reductions in monthly buying, but the way the market acted, the may have been on the dovish side.

Fed’s interest rate history: A look at the fed funds rate from the 1980s to the present - from Bankrate. com New Fed head approves first rate hike of 2018 - from CNBC FTA; 2018 was before COVID and the economy was hot. Once COVID hit they had to raise rates. We will find out in about a half hour how big their balls are in today's world.

Anyone who thinks the Fed made rate decisions based on Trump is a fucking idiot.

I think the 10 yr did touch 3% today. From that AP article; That is a sample of bullshit from the article trying to explain the clueless Fed wizards trying to manage something they cannot manage, and haven't for a very long time. Slow learners, but our system. It appears the bond market is starting to agree with that assessment. But they have a problem; They blow up the everything bubble or they starve half of America. Your move.

Thanks Lee. Hope you are well. I followed the migration but just watched from a distance. I had to sign up to thank Biff in the advise thread so while I was here... I'm kind of disappointed with this thread - no chart porn. 🙂 And screw the banksters.

Love it!!!! My over/under is 2 hikes. They are scared shitless.

When you are my age there isn't much booming going on. It is a room in the corner of the house and garage. It was a back porch slab when the house was built, but now an enclosed room that I totally remodeled. It has two outside walls that have windows I can crank up which are also screened to keep the bugs out. A ceiling fan, TV, stereo, chairs, table, and made up to look like a beach house. Complete with sea shells, driftwood, sand, fishing pole, and boat oars (mounted on wall) and a large map on one wall of Clearwater Beach in Florida. I did have a kegerator in there but draft beer got to expensive. So there is a lot of fun going on there while staying clothed. I have a satellite & external antenna feed to the TV but sometimes I take the laptop and hook into the TV to stream something off the computer. At night when our lines are busy I have buffering issues. This should fix that. It will also allow me to mount another security camera over the driveway, which I couldn't do before due to lack of signal. I can mount it on the dish mount and I have a solar panel to charge it since it will be up in the air. These things made me so happy I had to drink a few beers. 🙂 I drank two, just for Biff.

I’m here to thank you. I didn’t know there was such a thing until I read that. What? Really? I’ll give you a consumer report kind of thing. I have WIFI issues – dead spots where I don’t want them. I’m on physical cable coming in the front corner of my house. Spectrum, used to be Time Warner. Cornhole, Ohio, so we don’t have the last mile good stuff. My 60 buck plan a month gives me a 20 Mbps connection. Sometimes I get more, other times not, depending on time of day. For reference. I want to expand my WIFI to a back room just out of the main house, and the garage as well. You know, party central. I also have security cameras. Two in the front of the house, and two in the back. The ones in the front work pretty good. When you get an alert, you want to hook into the camera and see a live shot. You can do it with your phone from anywhere if everything works. Since the ones in the front are closer to the router, I can get a visual in not too much time. In the back – not so much - if at all. Too far from the router. If something is going goofy – time matters. I researched that system and said – yea – that makes sense. So I pushed the button. Came in today, so off we go. But before I killed the old router, I went around the house with my phone and checked speeds. I used xfinity speed test. I took 4 readings. 1) in the same room with the router. 2) far corner of my basement. 3) out of house back room with the door shut. 4) far end of my garage from the router (doors shut). I took multiple readings over an hour or two. Router room = 40 Basement = 40 Fun Room = 30 Garage = 15-20 (at least 5 tests) I ran at least 3 for all of them. Install new system. Followed directions, didn’t take long. You hook up the main router first, then the other two takes care of themselves. You might have to fiddle with a few things, but painless. Once I could see everything was working, I took another speed test. Router room = 70. WTF? That’s what it said, and so did every other place in the homestead. Unreal! I had an old Belkin router. I don’t know what changed, but I’m sure glad it did. This is sweet. Might be the best 130 bucks I ever spent. Thank you!!!!