gehringer_2

48 minutes ago, GalagaGuy said:

Holy crap, what an shot by UConn!!!   Bye bye Duke!  🤭

two point lead and the ball, all Boozer has to do is hold the ball, they have to foul him and he can put it out of reach at the line. Terrible end to a huge performance.

33 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

It’s not like the umpire scorecards that have been around for years haven’t already been exposing Bucknor, Eddings and Laz Diaz.  The union will protect them as always.

true, but being reversed in real time on broadcast games it a whole 'nother level of exposure to face compared to t some charts on a website somewhere.

10 minutes ago, oblong said:

My question was more about any value you place on a catcher for being “good” at it. Is that a thing?  I don’t know. 

I guess a related question is will ABS drive the umpires to be better? To the degree it does, that would have to degrade the value of framing as it would mean umpires are getting harder to fool.

27 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

That's the positive... from the US side...

The negative I am alluding to is from the International side.

All Iran has to do is say: "We are shutting down the Hormuz" and markets will know what that means and go through whatever crash/ correction it's in the mood for at that time.

That is a heavy sledgehammer that Iran holds, not just against the US but the WORLD.

I'm trying to say this in a way that you pick up on it because it seems you keep missing this particular point.

It's not only oil. A massive amount of Nitrogen goes through Hormuz. That's farming. And it affects almost the entire world's food production. I have no idea of percentages... But it's enough to scare the rest of the world outside the US. 

In fact, the US is one of the most insulated countries in the world against these shenanigans and yet we are STILL affected deeply, even though we have our OWN Oil & Gas and Fertilizer and oil by-products industry.

Shutting the Hormuz means shutting off Oil, Gasoline, LNG, Diesel, grease and other oil-by-products, Nitrogen (farming fertilizer), and did I hear Helium production too?

This is what brings the World economy, not just the US, down to its knees. And Iran has just found out how big of a sledgehammer it actually holds.

Israel offered to develop transit pipelines to its ports... Saudi Arabia, Qatar & the Emirates & others... better find alternative pathways to get their products out to the world bypassing Hormuz... and quick.

Kuwait may be in a screwed position.

No - I get what you are saying. But everything has its limits. If Iran becomes intransigent enough, there will be boots on the ground to remove the mullahs, possibly Chinese if not ours! 

Another aspect further out is that Iran can easily over play its hand to where its leverage  will turn out to be heavy but short lived. Everything that goes down the Persian Gulf can just as easily go by pipeline (or rail in the case of other products) to somewhere else, and those pipelines are pretty easy to build across the dessert. I imagine they are being sketched out even as we type.

In general Iran has been a very bad actor, but until fairly recently not a particularly foolish one. At this point it's hard to know how much less competent the new leadership will now be for having been degraded and additionally radicalized, but in the past I would have expected Iran to have a pretty good sense of how much pressure it could exert without bringing the temple down around themselves.. Who knows if that is still true? We have certainly increased the probability that Iran will be less rational going forward.

59 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Hat tip to Woody Guthrie

 

A newfie can easily slobber you to death though...

7 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

The run counts the same regardless of inning but its impact on win probability does not. 

that's a kind of statistical paradox  though. The win probability due to a given run is not a constant. A run in the 1st may be adding a small "X" to win probability in the 1st, but if that run is still the margin in the 9th that same run is now adding X * Y - a  lot more to win probability. But it's the same run. It's not when you scored it that mattered.

The way technology revolutions work is a little counter intuitive. It's a little bit like trying to light a fire. You have to work hard initially to light the fire, but once lit you get back a ton more out than you put in. So we have been operating on a fire based energy economy, and that worked pretty well for a long time and as long as fire was cheap (both in explicit and external costs), there was no motivation to find anything better. But the fire based economy has become both toxic and expensive, enough to finally motivate a technological push into a different paradigm - which is direct generation of electricity from renewable sources. But once you get over the cost hump to get the new system off the ground, it's going to turn out be cheaper than the old system ever was, we just had no way to know that in advance and no reason to try to find out, but that is how technology usually works.

19 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Pitch framing will be a thing as long as there is any discretion allowed for umpires calling pitches. Only once there is a total robot ump regime will pitch framing cease.

agree. ABS will just act as a limit to how bad a pitch you are likely to be able to 'promote' 

10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Agree with all this. A lot of people believe Kevin should have challenged the strike three call to start the second inning, but I can see the logic of his not asking for a challenge right then, given how low leverage a situation it was and, thus, how high the marginal cost of being wrong would have been.

that's the thing about a baseball game though - runs in the 1st count just as much as runs later and any pitcher can end up on the ropes at any point in a game, so I guess I'd just as soon press any advantage at any point. But I will admit there is a difference between burning your 1st and your last challenge. If a game looks like it's going to stay close I'm more on board with trying to keep the last challenge in your back pocket.

1 minute ago, oblong said:

Me too. And I will grant hitters leeway early on as they have to learn to trust their instinct. The reactions I’ve seen make it sound like it’s part of a deep strategy. I don’t think so. There’s no time for that.  Some guys may see numbers and find out “I would have won these so I will challenge more”. 

The other aspect that is going to evolve is that ABS gives a player his own, custom, consistent zone in the up and down direction. Hopefully you have players who gain confidence in their own judgement in the vertical direction as they only have one standard to internalize rather than every umpire's estimate of their zone. I think there are other things that should evolve as well. I would guess players will figure out that in and down are the places they see as well or better than the ump, while they probably want to feel more certain before challenging an outside call.

1 hour ago, casimir said:

I wonder if enough of these outings forces MLB to go to ABS all of the time sooner than we think.

I hope it does force them to move on from Umpires that aren't very good. There are an enough guys who call a good game behind the plate, MLB has had no real need to keep the guys who don't. It's just been habit, but now it's a habit they have more motivation to fix.

34 minutes ago, oblong said:

I believe it’s less than that. Almost instantaneous. One hitter was denied because he sort swung his bat back up to set himself up for the next pitch. Less than 2 seconds. 

It is exactly set up so no one get to see video before the challenge is made - it has to be a player's live judgment vs the Ump's live judgement. I'm actually OK with that.

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Flip side, do higher prices incentivize the country that extracts the most oil from the ground to go all in even harder on draining the earth of every last drop of fossil fuel possible?

the old saying is that the Stone Age didn't end because they ran out of stones. If the US ties itself to oil, industrial efficiency in the rest of the world will just continue to pass us by as they operate on an energy economy that is not only cleaner, but CHEAPER. A lot of oil is going to get left in the ground around the world because it will have no economic value at its cost of recovery.

7 hours ago, buddha said:

theyre just not good enough.

And it shows up in March because when the stakes are higher and other teams play a little harder, the Wings have no reserve, no margin to raise their own game. Maybe McLellan is too good a regular season coach 🙄

Not a very entertaining game, but I can still thank the Tigers for a much less frustrating evening than watching the Wings would have been.

Keith needs a little work on the throws

McGonigle needed to have challenged the 1st one, which was a ball.

3 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Reparations?

It is WAY, way worse than that.

Iran is now seeing how they can bring the entire world's economy to its knees.

They have threatened this before...

But now forced into this "opportunity" by Trump attacking them - with ZERO planning whatsoever, with NO game plan, NO end game plan - they get to see in real time just exactly what kind of trump card they hold over Drumpf and the world's head... It's four aces up their sleeve. Exposed for all the world to see.

And I'll bet that Donny two-year-old and his little temper tantrum can't even see it. 

I suppose in the long run, anything and everything that makes oil more expensive can only help jolt the US into a better, future success oriented energy policy, at least after the Idiot has left the scene. From that standpoint a Persian gulf that is open but expensive wouldn't be the worst thing, EXCEPT that whatever $$ go to the mullahs definitely is a worst thing.

Tork getting BaBIP'd already this season.

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

Drumpf has GIVEN Iran a "trump card" (so to speak...):

Iran has a new demand to end the war – and it could bring in billions

Brainless MF'er.

We have the most IGNORANT President in the history of ALL HUMANKIND.

The dumbest president EVER!!!

We've never SEEN such a dumb ****ing president.

Nothing but a MASSIVE LOSER!!!

Right Naziholic?

that's how they are going to get their reparations. If they are half way reasonable they'll get their way and make a nice bundle.

another little detail. McGonigle with no hesitation calling Keith off the pop-up. SS should take that ball but you often see a rook be a little deferential.

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Riley did not have to leave his feet for that.

even the SO said that.

There's a little D.

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think had Gleyber caught that throw, runner’s out.

he might have been in too far to make the tag, I didn't think the angle they had on the replay showed his depth very well, but if he was in the wrong place it still means if he was in the right place it's an out.

Tork been skipping the weight room or what?