This pretty much nails it. Back in 2018 breaking stuff was still considered put-away pitches. Six years later, only high cheese pushing 100 at minimum at the top of the zone can seem to get big-league batters out. Casey is basically a pitcher of a different era, with signature pitches today’s hitters know how to spit all over. That might be why his K/9 is not even as high as seven, even post-surgery.
There are some bright spots in Casey’s performance. His FIP- is 91, which is a bit better than average, he doesn’t give away free passes much, and he kills a lot of worms. But he still can’t get swing and miss, can’t get guys to chase, and gives up too much on-the-button contact, and he isn’t better at any of that than he was in 2021 pre-injuries. We may be seeing the finished product right now, which would make him as good as he’s ever going to be. If anyone could theoretically benefit from a ball deadened back to 1980s level, it is Casey Mize.