LOL rosy narrative being pushed by Democrats. The Democrats never push any rosy narrative. It's always doom and gloom. They ran Biden out over a debate. I don't think you do know how to distinguish the junk polls since there have been dozens of them. The quality polls are getting aged out in the 538 model and being replaced by these junk polls. This is exactly what they did in 2022. I called it out at the time, and people said I was falling for the rosy narrative then and would just say the fundamentals. Everyone was so quick to just ignore Dobbs and what happened in Kansas. When Dems deserted MI-10, I tried to tell anyone who would listen it was winnable. Dems lost by 0.5% with a candidate with no money. This wasn't a rosy narrative. It was all doom and gloom and bracing for the red wave that never happened.
I've never said she was going to win Ohio. I've posted the occasional poll, including Trump's own internal, that showed he was only +4 in Ohio. If he is only +4 in Ohio, he isn't winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. I also said that bodes well for Sherrod Brown, which it does. I never at any point said she was going to win Ohio.
Florida was a Trump +3 state. It has historically for the past several decades, been a swing state. Trump's margin of victory was similar to Biden's in Michigan. I don't know when Florida became Idaho. Abortion is on the ballot; marijuana is on the ballot; Dems are running a candidate in every house district. Harris has a large field operation in Florida that she just expanded yet again this past week. The DNC has invested money in Florida. Polling has shown it in low single digits. I've said over and over it is in play. I never said she would win it. I think it's 50/50 right now, and true tossup.