https://blogs.fangraphs.com/six-takeaways-from-our-2024-playoff-odds-release/
The Twins Stand Alone
"It’s really hard to project as having a 50% chance of winning your division. Baseball is inherently volatile and teams are bunched up. Only four teams in the entire majors hit that mark, and three of them are the consensus best three teams in the sport: the Braves, the Dodgers, and the Astros. The fourth is the Twins, who we think would be the fifth-best team in the AL East if everyone played the same schedules.
Here’s the thing, though: the AL Central is awful this year. Dylan Cease and Luis Robert Jr. might still be on the roster, but the White Sox are fast approaching the point where they move past the “trade everything that’s not nailed down” part of their teardown and start trading the nails. The Royals lost 106 games last year, and while we think they’re going to be a lot better in 2024, they’re still a bad team. The Tigers and Guardians are going to struggle to score runs, though both will do a fairly good job of preventing them.
The Twins aren’t exactly the second coming of the 2001 Mariners or the 1927 Yankees. We project them in the bottom half of baseball offensively, though we do love their pitching staff. But when you win your division by nine games and none of your opponents do much to improve their rosters over the winter, it’s easy to come out on top again. At least, that’s what our odds think, and I tend to agree. For what it’s worth, betting markets do too: In perfect agreement with our odds, the Twins are one of only four teams who are more likely than not to win their division."