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sabretooth

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  • Birthday 07/06/1970

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  1. I am going to go out on a limb....the more I contemplate how unlikely it is that they will get one of the top SS, and would have to settle for DeJong, and maybe Gomes at C, and maybe Cobb or some other stiff at SP, and given the elevated number of BB and HR allowed by the BP and likely regression there..... I think its probable that they make the above modest changes, and have a losing record next year, even if they have improvement from Mize and Manning (very likely), good years from Tork and Greene (at least likely), and no major new injuries. The FA plan I listed above (Cobb, DeJong, Gomes) might if we are lucky be enough to get us a winning record, but probably not. I hope they do a lot better in those particular slots and add more help, but I am not counting on it.
  2. Have I failed to acknowledge that? Fine, will say it again: they are only going to get one pitcher (mistake) and a SS (good) and a C (meh). Not enough pitching help, not enough hitting help. Getting a second starting pitcher and another bat, resulting in a league average payroll, is reasonable, and if they were trying to win 90 games, it would be on the menu. I think with their plan they have a decent shot at a winning season, and a not so good shot at the playoffs.
  3. I also don't want to see this team rewarded for tanking by sneaking into the playoffs at 84 wins simply based on the contributions of tanking picks like Mize, Tork, and Greene. I will root for these guys, but I don't want to see the Tigers get to the playoffs without building a legit good team.
  4. In a weird way, the tanking craze may inflate wins for playoff-caliber teams, by creating more tanking teams for them to feast off of. Tanking sucks, but getting the playoff bar high (90+ wins most of the time) of course would be good for the game. If we have to suffer with idiotic tanking, that might be a silver lining.
  5. I think they will need everything to go reasonably well and avoid major new injuries to get to 85 wins. They will need a lot of luck to get to 90 wins with just a new SS and SP and the rookies. I simply don't think that's a viable playoff plan, even with an expanded playoff format.
  6. Everything you just described gets them to 85 wins....90+ wins and the playoffs would be pretty lucky unless they get more help.
  7. I am puzzled by the thought process that this team is just a nip here and tuck there away from playoff contention. They overperformed in a number of areas to get to 77 wins, which was great and loads of fun to watch, but their win total was only a few games better than they were projected to do....if they had a winning season, that would have been like 2006 without the playoffs. Even if you discount the first 33 games, they still needed a lot of pitching overperformance and several career years from journeymen like Grossman and Haase to make it to 77 wins. They still need some major improvements to this roster. More than the upcoming rookies are likely to provide. The value of this season IMHO was to demonstrate that they could get within spitting distance of a winning record without relying on tank-picks, and that AJ Hinch was a great hire.
  8. DeJong, Barnhart, and Canha would not likely improve things vs. 2021. DeJong and/or Barnhart would be nice to get if they also picked up a great OFer. DeJong would likely improve SS overall, and Barnhart would probably solidify the catcher position, but I am not sure that Canha would be a clear improvement over the other pieces they have in the OF already. I am pretty sure that the team's offense would not improve with these three guys. Given that Rogers isn't going to play in 2021, these guys would be improvements overall vs. the guys they currently have, but they would not improve the team vs. 2021 IMHO. Scherzer would be great, though. If it's the hitters you mentioned and Gray or Cobb, I think their improvement as a team vs. 2021 would likely hinge entirely on Tork and Greene.
  9. If they get a quality hitter, I don't think they are going to have any problem finding spaces to put guys. Its not like Miggy will require 162 games at DH and 1B. And Schoop has 2B wide open. And none of the OF in their system right now require full-time play in the place of a good hitter. I am not sure that Canha is the player I want....his power/age is in question, and his glove along with Grossman's arm would weaken OF defense a little too much for my taste. If he had 25+ HRs in him and a .450 SLG/.200 ISO, maybe. Duvall, Pederson are a couple of guys who I think could be signed for Cron/Schoop money and who could add the offense that they need with a decent glove.
  10. Yes, getting to 90 wins would be possible with the Tigers expected 2022 hitting, but only with very good pitching, which we don't currently have, and won't have if we only add one quality SP. In a best-case scenario for the offense, the Tigers could add 70 RC to their lineup vs. 2021 with only one FA acquisition at SS: - SS will be a big improvement over Goodrum/etc (who produced about 50 RCs combined....add 40 RC) - Tork could replace Schoops 450 PAs and 60 RC at 1B, allowing Schoop to replace similar PAs at 2B and improve over the Castros and Isaac's exact same number of PAs and 50 RC (add 10 RC) - Greene could replace Jones, Mazara, and some of Reyes (say 400 PAs) with 60 RC (add 20 RC vs. those guys over same playing time). Let's say that the pitching is not markedly improved....this is my current theory, if they only acquire one quality SP. This FA SP would replace the lost 2021 starts for Turnbull and Boyd and maybe adding a little bit, and improvements from Mize/Manning/Skubal being roughly cancelled out from expected regressions from the other SPs, and the bullpen being basically left alone and performing about the same as it did from May 8th onward. In the above scenario, a 70 RC improvement on offense would equate to about a 7 - 8 win improvement overall, enough to get them a winning record, but likely 5+ games short of making the playoffs. They still need to add a second good SP. I also wouldn't count on both Tork and Greene having nice 400+ PA takeoffs....I think we need to add a cheap OFer with some pop. The above is based on the premise that in 2022 the goal is to make the playoffs after 5 years of basically intentional losing.
  11. Greene could provide a couple WAR improvement in the OF over 2021....I didn't highlight him, but I am not discounting what he could do either. Even with Grossman, Baddoo, and Greene having fairly productive years, and Hill, Daz, and/or Reyes contributing off the bench, there is still a lack of pop in the OF. None of these guys are established ML power-hitters, Grossman's career year (and advanced age) notwithstanding. For goodness' sake, Grossman hit nearly as many HRs (23) in 2021 as he had hit in any of his previous 3 seasons combined.... ...and Grossman nearly hit as many HR as the next 4 Tigers OFs combined. Finally, from May 8th - the end of the season, our strongest period, our OF produced under 200 RCs, whereas the average for playoff teams over that same period was nearly 250, with the lowest being more than 20 above the Tigers over that period. That's a 25 - 60 RC deficit vs. the playoff comps over a whole season. Grossman produced 94 RCs this year, there has got to be at least a 10 - 15 RC regression there....that puts the playoff comp deficit in OF hitting at about 35 - 75, worth at least a 3 - 5 win differential. The above deficit in OF hitting is far more than you could hope to make up by adding Greene plus improvements from Baddoo, Hill, Daz, IMHO. A quality hitting OFer and Greene could make up the difference, sharing some DH and 1B time as well.
  12. I also want to make it clear that in my post above responding to RandyMarsh, I am evaluating the period from May 8th to the end of the season. I am not exactly throwing out the first part of the year, but I am really focusing on what the final 130 games mean going forward.
  13. QFT....I loved this team, a real testament to Hinch/Fetters and to AA for finding some steals in Baddoo and Haase, among others. However, even with the hot youngsters coming up, they cannot expect to get over the hump by adding them and a star SS. It would be particularly disappointing to see them acquire a SP who would merely replace the lost starts from Boyd and Turnbull. They need TWO SPs, one who is at least "solid"/average, and another who is above average. They also need to fortify the bullpen....WAAAAYYY too many BBs and HRs from these guys. I also would like to see them fortify the OF, which in 2021 was a massive career year from a 32-year old Grossman, a nice 124 games from Baddoo, and a bunch of "meh". They need another productive/plus bat out there, and it shouldn't fall on Riley Greene, Daz or Hill to try and supply it. With Tork coming up and an above average SS, I will be pretty happy with the IF, especially if they can reinforce the C position. But the SP/RP and OF need to be improved, and not just from within.
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