Tiger337

Just now, tiger2022 said:

Managers and coaches really don't matter much.  If you don't have talent, it won't make any difference.  

I agree for the most part.  They can influence games with bullpen management, platooning, etc and Hinch is really good at those things.  You can't get anywhere without talent though.  

1 hour ago, Shelton said:

A few notes:

Skubal as a 5+ service time service player is not unique. Nearly every player to reach their final year of arbitration is a 5+ service time player. This is not some secret provision that makes him special. Why is it a story? Because Boras told his media cronies and they ate it up. The reason it’s rarely cited is that it has minimal persuasive value.
 

Slubal is in his third year of arbitration. Not his fourth.
 

That David price contract was a fourth year arbitration award. In Price’s third year he made 14. He went 4-10-14-19.7 over his four arb years.

Juan soto’s record of 31 was also a fourth year arbitration contract. Soto went 8-17-23-31.
 

Corbin Burnes was a three year arb guy. Had won a Cy young. Was coming off multiple star appearances. Received cy young votes multiple years in a row. His three arb salaries were 6-10-15. Now he’s getting 31 from free agency. 

The suggestion from Skubal/boras is that his arbitration salaries should be 4-10-32. A 22 million dollar raise. A 200+% raise. 

Skubal is a fantastic pitcher  Second best in baseball at the moment. But he’s not a unicorn. He’s not the first tier 1 SP or ace or whatever label you want to use. He’s not the first player coming off a cy young. There was one just last year named Tarik Skubal that got over a 100% raise from his prior 4 million dollar salary.

For Skubal and Boras to prevail, they would need to convince an objective and trained neutral arbitration panel that Skubal is so unique that his fair series of arbitration salaries would be at least 4-10-26. 
 

Is there a chance? The panel is human so anything is possible. But they are also huge nerds and they are going to love Scotty Harris.

 

I think you are right...Don't call him Scotty though.  He is definitely a Scott.  

Who is Brian Simmons Harris Sux He needs to get some real pitchers.   

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

What if I told you that we could add Ranger Suarez, Freddie Peralta and Jonah Tong to the rotation to replace Skubal?  

You just told us.  

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

I know I'm not changing anyone's mind. We're all too old to change our minds, probably about anything, but certainly about any of this.

 

I can change my mind, but the evidence needs to be convincing.  People told me that AJ Hinch was was the best manager ever.  I told them that managers don't matter.  Now, I agree that Hinch is a great manager, the best I've followed closely.  Then when I give him credit for the Tigers winning, people get MAD.  Some people can just never be happy.  😐

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Now consider how the Tigers of 2011-14 were regarded versus the Tigers of today.

They were able to sign Victor Martinez, Pudge Rodriguez , Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera (prior to free agency) before the 2011-2014 window.  Signing at the end of the window would have been a mistake.  

9 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The Tigers are not the best option by any stretch for any player looking for a ring next year. The Tigers might be competitive for a Central team, but players surely don't think of them in the same category as the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Phillies. No amount of additional money will convince a top free agent already assured of well into nine figures to commit the rest of his career to a franchise that could blow it up and start all over at a moment's notice, which the Tigers have a recent history of doing. One more dollar won't compensate for that, obviously, but one hundred million dollars wouldn't do it, either, if we're talking about the difference between 400 from the Dodgers or Blue Jays, and 500 from the Tigers. At that level, the money doesn't matter—it's all about the rings.

You almost certainly will strongly disagree. You may even reaffirm that, as is always the case, no one here agrees on my assessment. That's fine. I already know what you think of me. I also know what I know, and I don't require you to know it, nor am I motivated to change your mind about it, or about anything else. I'm just here to give my opinion, like everyone else, and nothing more. There's plenty of room for more than one of those here.

I don't think that's true.  Under Dombrowski, the Tigers sometimes signed expensive free agents  by making over the top offers.  I don't suggest they should or will do that now, but players can be bought.  

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

It would also be a 180 degree shift for the top free agent on the market to choose a team like Detroit over the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, or Giants (or, these days, Blue Jays or Phillies).

It can't happen if you don't try!

I have resigned myself though to the idea that the Tigers are not likely going to sign that level of free agent, not this year and maybe never.  Hopefully, they can keep their own stars in the future.

16 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

$35M a season?

 

One WAR is worth about 9 million and Bregman is projected to be 3.5-4.0 WAR, so that comes out right.  How many years he can do that is certainly questionable, but his contract should be worth it in the early years.   

40 minutes ago, kdog said:

you cannot time contention....I don't get that.

Very true.  You can build a system that gives you a steady flow of good prospects and that is something I am hoping this administration can do.  However, you can never know when it will all gel together into a winner.   

19 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't see a pitching pipeline forming to support being good 3-5yrs from now. Maybe it's there in the lower levels waiting to break out - I'll be waiting.

You can never project pitching that far ahead anyway because most of them will get derailed by injuries.  That's why when you have a stud like Skubal, you've got to go for it. 

5 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

PS: If you add in 4 WAR between Baez/Torres...

That's 16-18 WAR from those 6 guys...

if we can actually get that...

Then I think we're having a good year.

Just my 2 cents.

FanGraphs has those two at 3.5, so that's 13 total for 6 players.  I am not saying thay can't reach as high as you stated.  Just trying to give an unbiased estimate.  

6 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I don't see any improvement from Baez or Torres coming...

But I think Dingler, Tork, Greene & Keith can definitely put up better numbers (both fielding as well as hitting)...

I mean... they could also regress... growth is not always linear...

But I think those 4, depending on offseason approach (are they dedicated to improvement?), or recognizing a change in approach is needed (looking at you Greene) and fixing it... or just "young guy still growing/ getting better" (Keith and Dingler) has me optimistic that we could get some growth from these... young guys.

Just a WAG:

I'm hoping for a bare minimum of 12 WAR from those 4 guys. And REALLY looking for 14 WAR. But maybe that is too far a reach.

I don't think those 4 are incapable of providing that performance though...

FanGraphs projects 9.4 combined for those 4 players.  

5 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

No, but we should if he thinks that re-signing Gleyber Torres and adding a 38 year old relief pitcher along with a bunch of no-name minor league contracts constitutes an off-season.  

He has also re-signed Flaherty and Finnegan.  So, basically, we have the same team coming back plus a 38-year old relief pitcher.  That's the same team that went through an epic collapse last year.  It's also mostly the same team that made an epic comeback in 2024 and was arguauably the best performing team in the first half of 2025.  So, what do they have?

I was hoping for more and there is still time.  

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

What don't you like about Matt Shaw, the person?

Oh, I figured out what it is...

By the way, I see that he went to the same high school as Mark Fidrych.  

22 minutes ago, chasfh said:

That should spell the end of Matt Shaw in Chicago, although if the Cubs end up trading Nico Hoerner instead, they deserve to miss out on the playoffs next year.

I don’t like Matt Shaw the person, but maybe Scott Harris should go after Matt Shaw the player to play third base for us. We have the prospect capital to pay for him.

What don't you like about Matt Shaw, the person?

Mize pitched like an allstar for a couple of months, but I wouldn't call him allstar caliber based on his whole body of work.  If he pitches the same next year as last year, I'd say he is an average starter.  I do think they could get Max Anderson for him, but that's pretty close to Chas's stated 10-20 range.  He's right around 10 depending on the list.  I wouldn't be OK with that, but they might get a little more.  Still, I'd rather have Mize than anything they could get.  

I don't trust Olson to stay healthy.  I'm not even sure he's healthy now.  Anderson is going to be 32 and has never done anything in the Majors, so I'm not expecting a lot from him despite his big season in Korea.  Bassitt is old, but has consistently pitched 170+ solid innings per year.  He's not exciting, but I like his chances this year better than Anderson.

10 minutes ago, buddha said:

i think emotion and an incredible sense of competitiveness got him there as well as incredible athletic talent.

if you dont think great athletes can be petty and hold grudges over "business" and minor transgressions, i direct your attention to Michael Jeffrey Jordan.  sometimes minor slights drive great athletes.

im not saying this is happening with skubal, but dismissing it out of hand because "well, they know its a business" is just as likely to be false.

I wonder how **** Allen would have reacted to arbitration?  

17 minutes ago, buddha said:

how do we know he doesnt?

again, these guys are human.  youre right, they know its a business, but we all work in business.  and not everyone is mature enough to let things go.  i imagine boras has told him everything that you've said, and everything you've said about it being a "business" and he's not a middle schooler is correct, but that doesnt mean he wont take offense, wont hold a grudge, and wont think about it the next time he has leverage....which should be in about 10 months.

Dombrowski did not like the process and wanted to avoid it every year.  

22 minutes ago, buddha said:

as someone who manages a lot of people, if i went into an open process like arbitration and said all sorts of things about how they didnt deserve the same salary as x, y, or z, there would be hurt feelings.  no matter how much money they made.

i know "its a business", but its still hard to hear that your employer doesnt think youre worth what you think youre worth.  baseball players arent robots.

I could imagine Eduardo Rodriguez going into a passive aggressive snit.  

27 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

It's not one or the other per say.  It's is he worth $1 more or less than the mid-point of $25.5 mil.  If the formula says he's worth $25 mil, the arbitrator goes with $19 mil. If the forumula says he's worth $26 mil, they go with $32 mil.

But if the Tigers had offered 25 million, the mid-point becomes 28.5.  So, they would have better chance of winning.  Offering 19 makes sense if you think that the arbitrator will arrive at a figure between 19 and 25.5.  I am assuming that is what they think.  Either that, or they underestimated the 32 million figure.  

11 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I turned 11 Randy Smith's first season, so maybe that's why this doesn't include me? 😄

I turned 11 after the 1973 season, so I saw a 90 loss season at age 11 and 102 loss season at age 12.  My Tigers glory years were from age 13 (Mark Fidrych in 1976) to age 23 (1987, the best Tigers pennant race ever).  

9 minutes ago, chasfh said:

You are correct. It is also correct that you habituate a forum loaded with participants who grew up during the greatest period of year-to-year roster retention in big league history, and it can be hard to think beyond the principles of the game you committed to memory when you were eleven. 

Edman will probably learn that lesson in 20 years! Hopefully, he will see another Tigers championship by then.  And hopefully, you and are still able to understand what's happening at that time.  

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think this is sometimes true and not always true. 

Just like everything else in the world.