Tiger337

3 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

In sports if you read it in the newspaper you've seen it. 

especially baseball.  

29 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Kaline?

I'm old, but not that old!  I remember old Kaline, but not young Kaline.  

Just now, IdahoBert said:

10 pitch at bat this guy is just freaking great

I am pretty sure I've never seen a Tigers rookie who was so good as a hitter at such a young age.  

DeJesus is going down to Toledo to remake himself as a pitcher.  He's being replaced by a 36-year old pitcher with a 5.79 career ERA.  

I see that Hinch has the best hitter hitting 3rd tonight.  

11 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

So "best hitter" could change from game to game, depending on the matchup? And managers have a secret formula that no fan knows about that determines his line-up? Uhhh...ohhhh kayyy...alternate universe calling. 🤣🤣

I would guess statisticians give Hinch suggestions for line-ups or match-ups based on data.  Hinch probably considers them, but makes adjustments based on things that don't necessarily show up in statistics.  I don't really know, but that would seem to be the ideal way.  

1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

I have accidentally made that math error I a spreadsheet before. Gotta watch that...

Did you have your subordinate double down on it for you or did you correct your mistake? 

How did you make that mistake, by the way, i can see someone going in the opposite direction and mistakenly calling it a 5,900% decrease.   

I would also guess that Trump did not use a spreadsheet!

56 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

MAGA math.  

1 minute ago, Sports_Freak said:

I guess I don't understand somebody else's opinion of "best hitter." Last season, when Javy was on an offensive tear (red hot) a reporter asked Hinch if he was thinking of moving him up in the order. Hinch just smiled and turned the question around on the reporter by asking him "would you move him up?" With the implication that it would change Javy's approach batting in a different spot. So yeah, at different times, different hitters could be considered a teams "best hitter." If Torres is struggling, I guess the point is to move him down in the order? Or if he struggles against a certain pitcher and you have a hitter who crushes the same pitcher, move them around? I guess I just dont understand the formula used to have a player considered your "best" hitter.

Most people don't understand the formula!  But yeah, there are other considerations besides an alglorithm and Hinch is not going to tell you what they are.  

38 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Yeah, Organize is a unicorn. Not many like him in today's game or even...ever.

I take issue with calling a 2 hole hitter the "best" hitter. What criteria is being used? Batting average? On base percentage? Is Hinch bucking the trend or is there some stat that says Torres is our "best" hitter? Torres is taking a lot of walks so far this season, wouldn't that make him an ideal leadoff hitter?

Tom Tango, et al wrote a book (called "The Book") and there is a chapter on line-ups.  It's not based on simply looking at batting average or OBP.  It's based on a complex algorithm which estimates the number of runs that a player will contribute to in each batting order position.  

He didn't say the best hitter bats second on every team.  He was saying that all things being equal, it is better for the average team to bat their best hitter second than to have him hitting third.  There is nothing special about the number three spot which makes it advatageous to always put you best hitter there.  It doesn't alway work for the best hitter to bat second either.  It's just that if you are going to pick a spot for your best hitter without considering anything else, the second spot would have the edge.  

Torres does not always bat second.  Sometimes he bats first or third.  Hinch has a different line-up every night based on matchups.  

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Although some sabermetricians advocate very best hitter at the top, then second best second, third best third, etc., aka the cricket batting order, aka the Ohtani method. It does help that Ohtani is also fast and a good base runner, in addition to being far and away the best hitter, which makes putting him top of the order defensible even to old school guys.

I would also say that this kind of line-up is not a bad idea and more defensible than some of the old line-ups where a low obp speedster might leadoff just because he stole a lot of bases.  

20 hours ago, slothfacekilla said:

 

Fun story even if he's a longshot

Playing six years of college ball is unusual.  Is that due to a Covid waiver?    

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Although some sabermetricians advocate very best hitter at the top, then second best second, third best third, etc., aka the cricket batting order, aka the Ohtani method. It does help that Ohtani is also fast and a good base runner, in addition to being far and away the best hitter, which makes putting him top of the order defensible even to old school guys.

yeah, the best line-up for a given team depends upon the make-up of that team,  The Tango line-up won't necessarily work for every team.  It is what works for the average team.  What I am pushing back against is the idea that the best hitter should bat third.  That might work a given team, but it is not the best idea on average.  

9 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Do the stat guys have a position on how lineups should be constructed? I know us old school guys like Jimmy did. I would love to play for that guy.

If I remember right, the Tigers got beat and were out of the playoffs that year so I was really bummed out. The next day Jimmy retired. That was even worse. Spit, and double spit.

The best hitter bats second because it maximizes his run production and gets him more at bats than if he batted 3rd or 4th.  The lead off hitter should get on base a lot.  Best home run hitter who isn't their best hitter bats fourth.  That part hasn't changed much. A lot of today's lineup is matchups though, so it depends on who is pitching like you said.  

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

And how often was that #2 hitter a shortstop?

or second baseman.  The left fielder batted third.  He had the highest batting average and a lot of doubles.  The clean-up hitter was the big slow slugging first baseman.  

7 minutes ago, Screwball said:

 

 

 

 

Quoted a bunch here.

I get a kick out of this stuff. I know Lee and Chuck are the leading stat guys here, many others are all over it too. It seems to be used much more today. That's good. I love stats, numbers, and get a kick out of this. I'm also old school. Jimmy Leyland is my hero. 

I don't have a problem with a speedy centerfielder with a bunch of stolen bases. 🙂 And you don't need the second batter to be a good bunter - they should all be able to bunt. No money in bunting. Giggle.

So different today.

I loved Leyland.  He was a character and also knew what he was doing.  Plus, the players loved him.  The Tigers were behind the curve in analytics during that era, but Leyland was a good manager.  

1 minute ago, Sports_Freak said:

The #3 hitter is a spot for one of a teams better hitters. As Leyland used to say, with a mouth full of food, the game isn't played on a damn computer. 😅😅

The game isn't, but many of the game decisions are.  

Not making a point here.  I just like the picture.  

9 minutes ago, chasfh said:

We’ve come a long way from reflexively putting the crap batter who can bunt the best in the two-hole.

And the leadoff hitter is the speedy centerfielder with a lot of stolen bases.  

1 minute ago, IdahoBert said:

Bases loaded no outs Javy up bottom of the fourth

He batting in a good RBI spot.  

12 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Jeez...ok..Kevin moved to the 3 hole, a very important spot in the lineup. Better?

It's an important spot in the order, but the #2 spot is more important.  The idea that the best hitter should bat 3rd is just an old fisherman's tale.  

9 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Well, I only see certain stats. Riley lead the team in RBI and runs scored. Thats run production. But I don't know how often he was in the 3 hole. It seems like a lot 

He primarily batted 4th last year (88 games), which is the best RBI position, although not the best run poroduction position.  

He led the league in most RBI and runs mostly because he was their best hitter and played the most games.  

5 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Well, Riley spent most of last season in the 3 hole and had a ton of RBI. I guess he got lucky.

I think you didn't read my post.  

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

He's been pretty hot. I think the bigger deal is Kevin moved to the 3 hole, a good run producing spot. Smart move.

The best spot for overall run production is the #2 spot.  By run production, I mean being involved in run scoring, either by runs scored, RBI or getting a hit that puts a runner (who eventually scores) into scoring position .