MichiganCardinal

Two goals gift wrapped by NHL officiating. NFL refs have nothing on the NHL incompetence.

I wouldn’t call it atrocious but I don’t think it makes sense. Between Sko, Glasgow, and Vaitai, 2/3 aren’t on the field and that’s a lot of wasted capital.

That’s not his first surgery on that ankle either. Big injury risk.

I think they’re already ahead of that by saying that Goff is aware of the Lions intentions. Rodgers learned the Packers were taking Love on draft day along with everyone else. Presuming the Lions said “hey we love you, our plan is to win a lot of football games with you, but full disclosure, there is one guy who we would take at #6 if he is there that would involve us moving on from you in a year or two” I think it creates a whole new dynamic from the toxicity Green Bay invited but surprising their MVP QB with his replacement.

I’m a nerd. Don’t ask me for solutions, just data.

I actually misstated it. It was 5%, or 3/56 attempts. Still very very low. Braden Mann (NYJ) was a planned onside kick against the Browns. It was perfectly executed, but a Browns player still had a chance at it. Brandon McManus (DEN) was a planned onside kick against the Raiders. It didn’t make it ten yards but a defensive player jumped to catch it and tipped it. Riley Patterson (JAX) was a surprise onside kick against the Chiefs. Patterson himself recovered it. That was it though.

Something I hadn’t considered RE Lamar (maybe others have and I’m just slow)… I think it’s just as if not more likely that the volume of NFL agents are colluding against him as it is owners are. Agents control the media narrative to a large degree and it is in their interests to make Lamar’s situation look like a cluster so no one else seeking a market setting contract tries to represent themselves

FWIW the difference between #32 and #12 on the chart (610) is actually remarkably close to the difference between #6 and #3 (600). If it becomes a bidding war though, I think we agree that the ask could go sky high. I just don’t think it will.

How about tonight we trade #6, a 2nd round pick, and a 2024 3rd round pick to Arizona for #3 and DHop, and then on draft day when one of Stroud or Young slips to #3, we trade #3 to Indianapolis for the 2nd and 3rd round picks back. Big Brain.

The Lions traded up 20 spots last year in the first round and didn’t surrender a future 1st. It’s a bit much to say that 365 days later they would give up a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, future 1st, and future 4th for a 3-spot jump. For Arizona, yes it’s possible they will drive the price up by bidding the Colts, Raiders, and/or Titans against each other, but I don’t see it. I think at least two and possibly all three of those teams would be content to stay where they are at rather than trading serious value for the 3rd QB off the board. I think it would behove the Lions to engage Arizona in discussion about the #3 pick, but if there is a bidding war and the price is even remotely close to this I don’t think you even say goodbye, you just hang up.

I want what they’re smoking if they think jumping three picks costs that much.

Has Sutton ever had a competent QB throwing to him? His best season was in 2019, with 72 receptions for 1112 yards, and that was with a combination of Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, and Brandon Allen throwing to him… I think he could be a pretty good X in a better situation. That said, he would have been worth a throwaway pick but nothing substantial, and it sounds like they wanted something substantial.

I think the Titans are willing to move on from Willis already if the opportunity presents itself. If Richardson and/or Levis are there at 6, I would definitely approve of a 6 for 11 and Simmons trade. I don’t think it would take more. Everybody knows the Titans can’t afford him. Then go and get Bijan Robinson or Quentin Johnston at 11.

The question regarding onside kicks rests on how often people think they should convert and what should be valued to achieve it. Only 3% of onside kicks were successful in the regular season. I do think that’s too low. I don’t know if giving teams like the Chiefs (and hopefully the Lions?) an advantage by making it an offensive benchmark is the way to solve that though. I feel like there should be a happy medium with the kickoffs that both results in less injuries and allows for a larger chance of success in onside kicks.

My Preferences at #6 ranked 1. Trade up 2. CJ Stroud 3. Will Anderson 4. Trade Down 5. Tyree Wilson 6. Quentin Johnston 7. Bijan Robinson 8. Peter Skoronski 9. Christian Gonzalez 10. Anybody Else

No, and I suppose if Holmes sees that in Gonzalez, of course I would be happy taking him. Though I’m not sure they would have made three free agent additions to the defensive backfield if that was the case.

I feel like taking a corner at 6 is similar to when the Lions took Okudah at 3. None of these corners seem to be the next coming of Sauce Gardner, and it would be at least a little bit of a reach in both positional and player value to take one of them there. It’s kind of the problem with being at #6 in this draft. Skoronski provides better positional value only if he projects to tackle in the future. I’m not convinced one way or the other on that. I think Holmes does something with #6 other than take a less-than top tier player. Will Anderson and maybe Tyree Wilson are the only two who I think are in that elite group both position and value wise. I think a trade up or down is very possible, even if a trade down is on its face favorable to the other team.

I would go even further. Even if he’s there in the 3rd round, I think that means that 31 other teams have written him off too. I don’t think the Lions would then be the first to say “eh worth a shot at this point”. I don’t think he will be considered at all.

How about #6, #48, and a 2024 3rd to the Cardinals for #3 and Deandre Hopkins?

The only QB I would feel very comfortable drafting in the high 1st is Stroud. If he slips to #3, I’m okay with trading up and taking him. He’s a better, younger, and more athletic version of Goff and could be a plug-and-play upgrade in 2024. It wouldn’t make much sense for 2023 though because you would figure he would come in as the QB2, not below Sudfeld.

I think signing Sudfeld increases the chances we draft a QB at some point in the draft.

I think my fondest AO24 memory from 2022 was yelling “get off the f###ing field!” at my TV in one week, and being pleasantly surprised to see him be a healthy scratch the following week.

All three of those are injury related. I think it’s more the reality of the game than it is holding them over a barrel. If they wanted to refuse a pay cut and take the release to go elsewhere, they were welcomed to, but I think they all knew their market wasn’t going to be anything worth writing home about. The market is what is going to dictate everybody’s pay. I’d rather be real with Vaitai and make him take a cut than try to be nice to everyone, pay Vaitai off a back injury like a starting tackle, and then not be able to afford Chark.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting that Stroud/Young/Richardson/Levis would be drafted to be a backup. They’d be drafted to be the 2024 or 2025 starter. Yes that probably means they would be a backup in 2023. But that’s what good teams do at all positions, not just QB. It can be a good thing for the first round BPA added to your team to not be a starter right away when it means you don’t have many holes. There might be a more nuanced argument to make that this is the Lions window, they should add an instant playmaker, and make a run this year at the Super Bowl. But I think the “don’t draft a backup quarterback” argument is more concerned with semantics than substantive differences of opinion.