TigerNation

"He hit .214/.358/.541 from Aug. 1 onward, but with just a 10.6 percent strikeout rate and a bizarre .154 BABIP, while obviously still hitting the ball hard (nine homers in 27 games)." An .899 OPS despite a .154 BABIP is just an insane level of dominance.

Here is the stat stability chart from fangraphs: https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/ “Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics: 60 PA: Strikeout rate 120 PA: Walk rate 240 PA: HBP rate 290 PA: Single rate 1610 PA: XBH rate 170 PA: HR rate 910 AB: AVG 460 PA: OBP 320 AB: SLG 160 AB: ISO 80 BIP: GB rate 80 BIP: FB rate 600 BIP: LD rate 50 FBs: HR per FB 820 BIP: BABIP As it stands right now, McGonigle has 185 PAs, 151 ABs, and 119 BIP in AA. So his BB%, K%, HR rate are all useful, and ISO is 9 AB away. We basically need to have 6X more ABs before BA has any meaning and 6.9X more BIP before BABIP would have any use. There is also the stats that correlate most to MLB performance: https://medium.com/the-sports-scientist/minor-league-stat-stickiness-hitters-cbb694a11282 Hint, it's K% and BB%, followed by home run rate. It's really simple, given the small sample sizes here, there are only a few stats that have any value in looking at, and those are all the stats that McGonigle is absolutely elite in. Comparing McGonigle in A vs AA: BB%: 13.5 vs 16.8% K%: 11.2% vs 11.9% ISO: .277 vs .278 HR rate: 1 per 20.71 ABs vs 1 per 15.1 ABs McGonigle's performance in AA is superior to his performance in A ball when looking at the stats that have actually reached stability and have some use, and those stats are also the stats that are most relevant to look at when projecting forward. BA and BABIP will never have a sample size large enough in the minors because it takes almost 2 whole seasons worth of data to have any use whatsoever. McGonigle is not being challenged in AA, and he won't be challenged in AAA either. The jump from AA to AAA is not that big for somebody who is so far ahead of the AA level that he's posting numbers like this. There is no question that McGonigle is too good for minor league pitching, the only question is how he will handle to the jump to the majors. There's only one way to find that out, and we will find that out shortly, not a year from now.

Saying somebody with a 16.8% BB%, 11.9% K%, 155 wRC+ and 40 HR pace is not dominating because of BA is a laughable statement. Having a 155 wRC+ despite having a .221 BABIP requires an insane level of dominance.

McGonigle is absolutely dominating AA lol.

If your analysis involves BABIP, or stats influenced by BABIP, your analysis is worthless.

BB%, K%, and ISO are the only relevant stats to look at, at least that are publicly available. Statcast data would be relevant of course as well, and the most recent update we've gotten from that was elite. Hype train has only gone up with his performance in AA, he's very clearly not being challenged.

Ok.

McGonigle 2-4 with a BB and HR tonight.

He'll either be up within two weeks of opening day or the Tigers will miss out on the chance for a pick. They won't keep him down an extra three months just because of the pick incentive. The Red Sox literally just had the same scenario the Tigers will be facing and they called Anthony up June 9th. If McGonigle has a 140-150+ wRC+ and maintains a double digit walk rate and low teens K rate through May, there is a 0% chance he won't be called up sometime in June.

He would've been out of the inning without the error, so only the solo HR would be earned.

Merril is another, had 889 PAs, and he ended his year 20 season in AA with a .782 OPS in 211 PAs. He then made the opening day roster, skipping AAA entirely, and proceed to have a 126 OPS+ and a 4.4 WAR as a 21 year old. Juan Soto had 512 PAs, only 35 of which were in AA before he was called up and posted a 16% BB% and a 146 wRC+ in 494 PAs as a freaking 19 year old. Just looking at total games played in AAA before their first call ups: Vlad 39, Witt 63, Carrol 33, Greene 55, Trout 0, Mayer 43, Holliday 10. What's more relevant is how much time they spend at the upper level of the minors, once somebody shows they are too good at AAA, they are called up fast. There is no expectation that McGonigle will take until August of next year to be called up. He will absolutely have a shot to earn his was onto the opening roster in Spring Training, and if not, don't expect more than 50-60 games in AAA if he performs how he's projected to.

You do realize even if you use their minor+college PAs (750 for Neto, 832 for Langford) they will be in the same range as McGonigle, who will be over 800+ PAs by the end of the season. Now it's apples to apples and the point is proven the exact same. Jackson was called up and struggled, so he was sent back down to get those PAs. He has 726 when he was first called up, which is all that's relevant to this discussion.

Wyatt Langford 222 PAs. Zach Neto 275 PAs. Jackson Holliday 726 PAs before his first call up. They may like to give a player a certain amount of PAs, but it is asinine to suggest they will leave a player in the minors if they think he is good enough to hit big league pitching because he hasn't gotten a certain amount of PAs in the minors. In an ideal world they would have him get that many PAs, but McGonigle has missed a lot of time with injuries, so he's just not gonna get them. No front office would be so incompetent to watch him not be challenged in AAA and think gee, he missed out on 400 PAs in A ball, so we can't call him up.

No lol. That does not apply to prospects of McGonigles caliber.

Could he not field a routine grounder or throw to 1B? Cause his bat doesn't need more time.