TigerNation

7 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Someone finds out after a GM gets fired and is bitter. An agent like Boras, for example, makes millions of dollars a year. That could all be in jeopardy for very little gain. Think about it, everyone already knows the ballpark figure it will take to sign Skubal. If he were to shop him while he's still under contract, he may make a few extra million. But he would be exposing himself to being suspended from being an agent in future damesls;

 

You realize all Boras has to do is ask a question about the what contract terms a team might offer to a hypothetical player with similar stats to Skubal and it's not tampering, right?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-mcgonigle-talks-hitting/

4 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I have to believe Colt is headed for 3B, barring a Bregman signing.  All of our prospects are 2B—Lee, McGonigle and Anderson.

McGonigle has been playing some 3b in the Fall League. So he may get a shot there too, as they try to find as many fits as they can for all the 2B prospects.

4 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Looking at the stats at the time of the trades? The Tigers only went after the cheapest and least desirable players they could find. Paddack? Really? A reject from a total bottom feeder of a team? I bet you were overjoyed that Harris hung onto 15 2nd base prospects. It gives you something to keep track of all summer...🤣🤣

What stats at the time of the trade are you looking at?

You're not valuing them based on the production they had for another team.

1 minute ago, Screwball said:

I have been absent for quite a few years so I have no clue what pitch com is or does. I'm very old school so I am used to fingers. 🙂

For the record, I don't like the way many catchers setup today, or how they frame pitches. The game has changed so much I feel like an alien.

Pitch com replaced signals, catchers no longer signal the pitch to the pitcher.

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

To the bold: that is a possibility.

I don't know what they use today, but the pitcher and catcher should be on the same page with every hitter. They should know how they want to pitch them. What pitch, what location, etc., even before a pitch is ever thrown. It should then be easy to come up with a set(s) of signs they can switch to when necessary. The entire holding down 1, 2, 3 fingers could mean nothing, but where he puts his glove while giving the signs could be an indicator. Or adjusting his mask could be another. There are all kinds of ways to do this.

IOW, there should be no way for opposing teams to steal signs if you do things the right way. I don't know how much this happens, and they likely aren't going to tell us either.

Or they could just use the pitch com, which eliminates sign stealing.

Some 100 PA rolling numbers for McGonigle in AA.

On 9/11/2025 at 1:27 PM, SeattleMike said:

According to a recent Keith Law article about the Arizona Fall League McGonigle's BABIP since August 1 is .125. And yet he still has a wRC+ of 155. 

"He hit .214/.358/.541 from Aug. 1 onward, but with just a 10.6 percent strikeout rate and a bizarre .154 BABIP, while obviously still hitting the ball hard (nine homers in 27 games)."

An .899 OPS despite a .154 BABIP is just an insane level of dominance.

2 hours ago, HugoD said:

Genuinely curious - are you inferring that BABIP has limited use as a metric?   I do think it's really limited and overused - but I can't tell if you're  for it or against it.

Here is the stat stability chart from fangraphs: https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

“Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics:

• 60 PA: Strikeout rate
• 120 PA: Walk rate
• 240 PA: HBP rate
• 290 PA: Single rate
• 1610 PA: XBH rate
• 170 PA: HR rate

• 910 AB: AVG
• 460 PA: OBP
• 320 AB: SLG
• 160 AB: ISO

• 80 BIP: GB rate
• 80 BIP: FB rate
• 600 BIP: LD rate
• 50 FBs: HR per FB
• 820 BIP: BABIP

On 9/5/2025 at 1:04 PM, tiger2022 said:

I would never say a player with a .246 BA is dominating anything.  But at least you got to feel dismissive towards someone else by typing lol in your response.

Saying somebody with a 16.8% BB%, 11.9% K%, 155 wRC+ and 40 HR pace is not dominating because of BA is a laughable statement. Having a 155 wRC+ despite having a .221 BABIP requires an insane level of dominance.

4 hours ago, tiger2022 said:

These guys aren't exactly dominating in AA, yet they are supposed to come up and be better than All Star performers?

These guys aren't ready for mlb.  Give them a chance to develop in AA for God's sake.

McGonigle is absolutely dominating AA lol.

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

And/Or the 150 PA at A ball may have included some good luck.

If your analysis involves BABIP, or stats influenced by BABIP, your analysis is worthless.

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

For the season McGonigle has as many PA at AA as at A by now, and his BA/OPS is down 130/220 pts on the transition to AA. He's finding some challenges to overcome that he wasn't at A ball. Hype train can maybe take a bit of a breather. 

BB%, K%, and ISO are the only relevant stats to look at, at least that are publicly available. Statcast data would be relevant of course as well, and the most recent update we've gotten from that was elite.

Hype train has only gone up with his performance in AA, he's very clearly not being challenged.

3 hours ago, SeattleMike said:

His BABIP is 100 points lower in AA than it was in A+. 

Ok.

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

LOL - but I think he was also 0 for the previous three games. The walk rate is great, and he is hitting the ball over the fence, though his contact rate is down since promotion, but the sample size is too small to mean anything.

What are his contact rates before and after promotion? His K rate is essentially the same.

McGonigle 2-4 with a BB and HR tonight.

13 hours ago, Cruzer1 said:

They won't call him up in the middle of the year, and give up the chance for a first round pick.

He'll either be up within two weeks of opening day or the Tigers will miss out on the chance for a pick.

They won't keep him down an extra three months just because of the pick incentive. 

The Red Sox literally just had the same scenario the Tigers will be facing and they called Anthony up June 9th.

If McGonigle has a 140-150+ wRC+ and maintains a double digit walk rate and low teens K rate through May, there is a 0% chance he won't be called up sometime in June. 

3 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

They had Skubal with four earned runs. Now it's one with two home runs allowed?

He would've been out of the inning without the error, so only the solo HR would be earned.

Merril is another, had 889 PAs, and he ended his year 20 season in AA with a .782 OPS in 211 PAs.

He then made the opening day roster, skipping AAA entirely, and proceed to have a 126 OPS+ and a 4.4 WAR as a 21 year old.

Juan Soto had 512 PAs, only 35 of which were in AA before he was called up and posted a 16% BB% and a 146 wRC+ in 494 PAs as a freaking 19 year old.

Just looking at total games played in AAA before their first call ups:

Vlad 39, Witt 63, Carrol 33, Greene 55, Trout 0, Mayer 43, Holliday 10.

What's more relevant is how much time they spend at the upper level of the minors, once somebody shows they are too good at AAA, they are called up fast.

There is no expectation that McGonigle will take until August of next year to be called up. He will absolutely have a shot to earn his was onto the opening roster in Spring Training, and if not, don't expect more than 50-60 games in AAA if he performs how he's projected to.

47 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

you do realize those two had hundreds of college PAs and were older (22) and McGonigle came in as a prep player? So you have a rather apples/oranges comparison. NCAA ball is about equivalent to low minors play. McGonigle will be 22 in '27.

I've generally been referencing PA and BR has Jackson, a prep player, with 1017 PA in the minors. He has also totaled 0.6 WAR in 180 games, and he hasn't broken a 100 OPS+ yet. Not sure he's your best case for a fast call up.

You do realize even if you use their minor+college PAs (750 for Neto, 832 for Langford) they will be in the same range as McGonigle, who will be over 800+ PAs by the end of the season. Now it's apples to apples and the point is proven the exact same.

Jackson was called up and struggled, so he was sent back down to get those PAs. He has 726 when he was first called up, which is all that's relevant to this discussion.

20 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

You should have let Aaron Judge (1500 MiLB PA) and Mike Trout (1300 MiLB PA) know about that.

 

Wyatt Langford 222 PAs.

Zach Neto 275 PAs.

Jackson Holliday 726 PAs before his first call up.

They may like to give a player a certain amount of PAs, but it is asinine to suggest they will leave a player in the minors if they think he is good enough to hit big league pitching because he hasn't gotten a certain amount of PAs in the minors.

In an ideal world they would have him get that many PAs, but McGonigle has missed a lot of time with injuries, so he's just not gonna get them. No front office would be so incompetent to watch him not be challenged in AAA and think gee, he missed out on 400 PAs in A ball, so we can't call him up.

4 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said:

Teams usually like ther prospects to have at least 1,500 plate appearances before moving up to the majors.  McGonigle has about 750 right now. A full year in AAA will probably put him around 1,200.

No lol.

That does not apply to prospects of McGonigles caliber.

23 hours ago, Cruzer1 said:

After seeing McGonigle for three games, I think he needs another full year until he's ready.  Sign him next year like Basallo.

Could he not field a routine grounder or throw to 1B?

Cause his bat doesn't need more time.

https://archive.ph/cTFiF

Some statcast data for Clark and McGonigle. They're both really good.

8 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Sorry, a bit more. Only sharing because it is so hilarious.

 

The apology got me.