TigerNation
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Posts posted by TigerNation
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4 hours ago, chasfh said:
I seem to remember this happened last year, too, where our wOBA fell well short of our xwOBA. So I did a little digging and found something that kind of startled me.
xwOBA—the expected wOBA a player or team should achieve given quality of contact factors such as exit velo and launch angle—has been around as a stat since 2015, so I went to FanGraphs and downloaded the full season data by team since then—eleven seasons, 30 teams each season, 330 data points—and compared their xwOBAs to their actual wOBAs across time. I created a separate column subtracting expected from actual to see whether the team's wOBA was under their xwOBA, or over it, and counted how many of the eleven seasons each team either underachieved their xwOBA, or else overacheieved it.
Here are the results, ranked by worst average underachievement for the past 11 years. Spoiler alert: the Tigers are historically the very worst at overachieving their xwOBA with a better wOBA:
Team Under Over Ave Diff MaxUnder MaxOver DET 10 1 -.0070 -.015 .000 OAK 9 1 -.0069 -.013 .006 KCR 9 2 -.0069 -.015 .005 SEA 9 2 -.0054 -.010 .005 PIT 8 3 -.0054 -.019 .006 LAA 10 1 -.0052 -.011 .004 STL 8 3 -.0046 -.014 .005 ATL 8 3 -.0034 -.012 .009 NYY 6 5 -.0034 -.020 .009 TEX 6 5 -.0024 -.016 .006 MIA 6 5 -.0024 -.011 .008 CLE 5 6 -.0020 -.017 .005 LAD 8 3 -.0019 -.011 .004 SFG 8 3 -.0019 -.011 .007 WSN 7 4 -.0015 -.013 .006 SDP 6 5 -.0014 -.016 .008 TOR 7 4 -.0011 -.007 .010 NYM 5 6 -.0008 -.013 .015 MIN 5 6 -.0008 -.017 .009 BAL 5 6 .0007 -.007 .019 CHW 4 7 .0009 -.017 .010 CHC 3 8 .0012 -.010 .009 PHI 4 7 .0012 -.006 .007 MIL 4 7 .0030 -.017 .014 ARI 2 9 .0030 -.009 .009 HOU 6 5 .0037 -.004 .016 CIN 2 9 .0043 -.017 .012 TBR 2 9 .0050 -.006 .013 BOS 3 8 .0070 -.001 .022 COL 0 11 .0139 .001 .027 ATH 0 1 .0144 .014 .014 (Read this table as: DET underachieved their xwOBA ten of eleven seasons and overachieved in one; the average difference for DET is -.007, or .007 lower wOBA than xwOBA; the maximum underachievement for DET was minus .015, and the maximum overachievement was .000.)
In ten of eleven years, The Tigers' wOBA underachieved their xwOBA, and suffered the highest average underachievement of any of the 30 franchises. Only one other team, the Angels, experienced 10 out of 11 underachievements, but no other team's maximum overachievement was so low that it rounds down to zero at three digits, which itself is only a hair from an eleventh underachievement.
This consistent underachievement of wOBA versus xwOBA is not something we can pin on Harris, because this happened not only for Harris teams, but for Avila teams, and for the Dombrowski team in 2015 (which, to be fair, had the sole overachivement of the eleven Tiger squads measured).
Given this, and also given how persistent underachievers like OAK and SEA and LAA tend to play in tough-to-hit ballaprks while consistent overachievers like COL and BOS and CIN play in easy-to-hit ballparks, I'm given to hypothesizing that the xwOBA stat itself may not have sufficiently ironed ballpark factors out of the reported number.
I think xwOBA isn't supposed to be adjusted for ballpark factors, a hit with the same exit velocity and launch angle will have the same xwOBA in Comerica and Fenway.
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BTW, Tigers offense was second behind only the Dodgers in xwOBA entering today.
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58 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:
Jason said something about the Jones 8th inning HR that I didnt catch. Something about the only 8th inning HR tying a game up in MLB this season?
Pinch hit HR.
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11 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:
Ever since i've followed baseball, power hitters always struck out a lot. But 200 times a season? No, he needs to cut that down to 170 or less. He's still a young player and seems highly intelligent so I think he may be able to do it.
His current rate is under 170.
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27 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:
Just think how many RBI he could have if he cut 25% of his strikeouts. Put. The. Ball. In. Play.
A 24.4 K% is fine, especially paired with a 14.0% BB%. He's never gonna be a 20% K%.
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25 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:
Yeah, sure. Fenway Park on a Friday Night on national TV is the same as a Wednesday night in Tampa or Cleveland. Sure thing.
It is.
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11 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:
Sit on the bench. 1st major league game in Fenway? What could possibly go wrong?
The ballpark is irrelevant.
He was called up because he hits lefties, and there was a lefty on the mound.
It's absolutely asinine to suggest a player needs to spend their first game on the bench.
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18 minutes ago, guy incognito said:
You mean on the Apple TV app? That’s good to know, although I don’t have Apple TV so it does me no good anyhow.
Yes.
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17 minutes ago, guy incognito said:
Just the stupidest ******* “innovation” to come along in televised baseball over the last decade. Adds absolutely nothing to any broadcast.
Sorry you can’t get the radio feed. That’s the one thing people actually liked about the Apple games in past seasons, IIRC
The option to listen to the radio feed is still there, I've been listening to Dickerson all game.
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4 minutes ago, casimir said:
The radar does not look great. Any driveway updates?
Light, but steady, rain 10 miles north at 10 & Woodward.
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7 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:
Peacock exclusive? How many Tiger games are on Peacock this season?
Reminder: peacock games are available on YTTV.
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1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:
Toledo rolls 17-7; Max 2/5, 2 2Bs, BB, another outfield assist. pretty great start for him.
6 BB, 2 Ks, and 5 2B in 29 PAs.
Too bad he strikes out a lot and hits a lot of weak ground balls.
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1 hour ago, holygoat said:
I think we'll see more successful catcher challenges than those from batters. They just have a better perspective of the entire plate than batters do.
The Padres broadcast showed the stats from spring training, catchers had the highest success rate, then pitchers, then batters. Catchers were somewhere around 56%, pitchers a little over 50%, and batters around 46%. Just going off memory so the percentages may be off a bit.
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36 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:
Maybe if the number of successful challenges is high enough the rule will change to allow more than two. A third challenge would likely result in more early uses. Obviously not this season.
The rule already allows for unlimited successful challenges.
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2 hours ago, RaceDog said:
After watching M Clark last year and so far this year (ST and 1 AAA game)....I don't see the hype. I couldn't care less about the gold chain and his social media, but I see a lot of K's and weak ground balls. What am I missing?
Well, for starters, you're missing that he doesn't K a lot, and his contact rate is elite.
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15 hours ago, casimir said:
I want to say the best nicknames aren’t derivatives of given names. Cool Papa. Big Unit. Babe. Catfish. Pudge. Three Finger.
But then some are so simplistic and the literal sound of the nickname is good. Something like Yaz. Or Teddy Ballgame.
A lot of fans on reddit are calling him the professor, in reference to the Harry Potter character.
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8 hours ago, IdahoBert said:
I am really happy today. The Tigers won their opener, Kevin was a bright star, Skubal was Skubal and the Arizona Wildcats put up 109 points against Arkansas to move into the elite eight.
They will face Purdue in Indianapolis and I attended both Purdue and Arizona but my heart is with Arizona. I lived there 13 years. So all real world problems aside - which are admittedly legion - these were two bright spots in it today for me.
The final four is in Indy, the game against Purdue is in San Jose.
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1 hour ago, tiger2022 said:
Colt Keith is just a guy. He's not awful, he's not good. He would be the worst starting 1st baseman in the league...low power numbers, mediocre average, and terrible glove.
And there is no way they are going to be moving Mcgonigle around to different positions. Playing in the majors is tough enough without getting moved back and forth from short to 3rd. It would seem that Javy will be at short and McGonigle at 3rd.
Meadows has about 30 games left as a Tiger and then he'll be in Toledo and then an ex Tiger
Keith's 109 wRC+last year wouldve tied for 16th amongst 1B. Even if he doesn't improve he'd be a top 20 starting 1B. Of course, he was 23 last year, so there's reason to expect him to perform better than he did in his second season.
You are so overdramatic.
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But I was told the Tigers had a required number of PAs a player had to get in the minors before they called them up.
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2 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:
We desperately need that since Skubal/Flaherty/Mize don’t go beyond 5+ much
Skubal doesn't go beyond 5 much?
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4 minutes ago, tiger2022 said:
$11 million is deferred.
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9 hours ago, Tiger337 said:
Peck is getting a lot of attention this Spring. How good is he supposed to be? I had the impression that he was a future utility guy, but he is not someone to whom I have paid a great deal of attention.
Lot of swing and miss, utility guy is the projection as of now.
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6 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said:
Tigers can't extend McGonigle if they want a ppi pick for him. They can go year to year with him.
Isn't that only if they extend him before he's promoted?
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1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:
Lol...I would have to pay for it if I wanted it. I get NBC but not Peacock.
Peacock games are on YTTV.
Kevin McGonigle is...
in Detroit Tigers
Posted
He played in national showcases, he'd proven himself against the best competition. His hit tool was highly regarded, but nobody was projecting he'd hit for the power he has because he's 5'8.