mtutiger

If this is really gonna happen, it'd be hilarious if he announced it about an hour before Trump's speech tomorrow night

The funders seem to be moving away from Biden as well

The stakes....

I would just add that what happened on Saturday was deadly serious and deserves an actual investigation to figure out what's going on. The results of which will be remembered for a long time and (hopefully) will lead to actual changes. Even beyond "blue check" Twitter reply guys (ie. Paul Szypula), actual Members of Congress throwing around their culture war acronym of the month around makes it less likely to take their findings or thoughts seriously because it demonstrates that they are less interested in a finding the facts and more interested in keeping everyone divided along political lines (which, isn't that what we want to get away from?)

I am guessing Clint Eastwood in "In the Line of Fire" was DEI too? The general observation that a Secret Service agent froze is fine... Tying it into the broader culture war is wrong and accomplishes nothing.

No kidding. It's not a huge shock that Ross Douthat loves JD Vance... Because they both share very weird politics

Good grief

Also didn't realize the degree to which Trump is an anti-vaxxer

Yiiiikes

More focus on the stakes of the election would be nice, rather than just the odds

Naturally, he wasn't wearing that oversized nicotine patch in his public appearances prior to tonight

I won't either.

I feel really sad for her... May his memory be a blessing

Whatever one's feelings about Rachel Maddow, Alex Jones isn't a reputable source on anything

One of the focus group gurus

Could be, although Biden's issue in polling has been more about the cities and suburbs in each of these states (and concerns about turnout), and Vance (just looking at his political record) doesn't add anything for these people IMO Turnout wise in rural areas, I have a hard time seeing it juice turnout more than Donald Trump already does.

Whether you're more a fan of 538 or Nate's aggregator, the idea is that Trump is still in a band between 48ish-75%. Which last I checked, isn't 99%. Yet his campaign is acting like it's 99%. Reminds me of the old Fritz Hollings quote: "There's only two ways to run for public office: one is unopposed, the other is scared." I think he's favored to win at this point, but his campaign is running a little overconfident right now IMO

Another way to think about this: Trump picked Pence in 2016 at a time when his support with evangelical voters was shaky at best. Which was a demographic that he absolutely needed in order to win. One case where it probably did help picking one particular candidate over another. Trump's pick of Vance here will bring no one in that wasn't already in the tent when the day started. He's certainly the favorite to win the election, but not so much so according to the aggregators that he shouldn't have interest in trying to make appeals *beyond* the base. Maybe I'm wrong, but this signals to me that he doesn't think he needs to do that. Which reeks of some overconfidence.

Ultimately I think you are more right than wrong just given that VP picks don't tend to matter at all regardless.... but ultimately it's not really about how it impacts Trump's base; it's how it impacts the kinds of voters that are actually being fought over in this election. JD Vance is pretty far to the right on the issues with this set compared to a Doug Burgum or Glenn Youngkin. There's more risk here than I think you are letting on IMO

Ouch

Also the perception that Trump used the biography (and the people in it) for self-serving, brand related reasons.

The experiences in his book are what they are, I don't doubt them. But it's hard not to look at everything that has happened since and think that his time in VC defines his persona a lot more than the book does. That he's forgotten more about where he came from than what he remembers. I think that comes across to people, and is part of the reason (along with Ryan being a good candidate) as to why his showing was fairly poor in 2022's Ohio Senate race IMO

For what it's worth, my old man is pretty damn conservative and can't stand him.... doesn't think he's genuine.