I am not rooting for a side in Skubal arbitration, but curious about the outcome. I doubt the Tigers are dumb enough to say that Skubal is not currently one of, if not the best pitcher in baseball. I also think the Tigers would also be foolish to bring up David Price. The Tigers would be best served by focusing on service time and what pitchers are being paid in 2026.
Wheeler's 2026 salary is $42M, but has 12 years of service and 40.2 career WAR.
Sale's 2026 salary is $18M, Sale has been as good as Skubal the last 2 seasons, Sale won a Cy Young his last complete season, Sale has 15 years of service, Sale has 57.3 Career War.
Ray's 2026 salary is $25M, Ray has won a Cy Young, Ray has 11 years of service and 20.3 Career WAR.
Crochet (5 years) and Webb (6 years) have similar service time to Skubal (5 years) and both have a salary under $25M in 2026.
If service time is taken into account, the $22.5M estimate for Skubal on Spotrac.com seems reasonable.
The challenge for Skubal/Boras may be convincing an arbitration panel that current market value (if Skubal were a free agent) trumps service time even though the arbitration system is largely built around service time.