Jump to content

So, About the Elephant in the Room …


chasfh

Recommended Posts

On 9/22/2021 at 9:01 AM, ewsieg said:

That playbook is going to be fine for well established GOP strongholds, but once you start putting MTG type folks up for election in districts that traditionally are closer split between the parties, that's when the rails fall off.  That's also when the GOP finally starts to reshape.

The Senate races will be interesting this year, and not in a good way. Most of the competitive states have good GOP candidates who historically would have a glide path to the nomination, yet the energy is with the Herschel Walker types who would likely not be as strong in a general election environment.

Its emblematic of the conundrum the GOP has at the moment... the strong general election candidates struggle to win the primary, the strong primary candidates will likely struggle relative to expectations in the general.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That’s close to how I’m seeing the Virginia Gubernatorial and other races this year. It’s going to be a bellwether for 2022. Youngkin is trying to play both sides of the GOP, admitting out loud that Biden won the election but still paying fealty to Godfather Donald. Attempting not to say much about topics like abortion, etc.

The fact here is that areas like Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads and Richmond suburbs are gaining population and are trending blue. The rest of the state is deep deep Trump territory but are seeing large numbers of people leaving.

If Youngkin can eek out a victory over McAuliffe, who is a centrist Democrat it could possibly be a blueprint for 2022 and 2024.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

That’s close to how I’m seeing the Virginia Gubernatorial and other races this year. It’s going to be a bellwether for 2022. Youngkin is trying to play both sides of the GOP, admitting out loud that Biden won the election but still paying fealty to Godfather Donald. Attempting not to say much about topics like abortion, etc.

The fact here is that areas like Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads and Richmond suburbs are gaining population and are trending blue. The rest of the state is deep deep Trump territory but are seeing large numbers of people leaving.

If Youngkin can eek out a victory over McAuliffe, who is a centrist Democrat it could possibly be a blueprint for 2022 and 2024.

 

I dont spend a lot of time in NoVa, but it appears on the surface like there is an expectation (at least from a lot of the political class) that there may be some snapback or reversion in voting patterns up there. 

If voting behavior is predicated more than anything else on education levels in today's politics, with a region like NoVa, I'll believe it when I see it.

In other words, If Youngkin wins, he's probably going to have to do it by holding serve up there and making it ground in other parts of the state. I dont think it'll happen. But we'll see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would add, the polls undershot NO by a considerable amount in California, another state with a high level of college educated white voters.

There are a lot of states where polling bias hides R strength (ie. Look at the Midwest), I just wonder whether Virginia is more like California or Oregon or Washington State where they more frequently to underestimate D strength.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Members
      245
    • Most Online
      186

    Newest Member
    DETFANINCA
    Joined
  • Recently Browsing

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...