Motown Bombers

RCP is garbage. It’s become completely right wing. In 2022 it only used right wing polls and no legitimate independent polls. It was way off. It was off on Whitmer by 10 and got the whole red wave wrong.

I fully expect the media to chastise Trump the way they would if Harris said the same but insert West Virginia. I expect them to already be in route to a Coney Island on 6 Mile for an interview with the people.

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Not at all. A lot of Boomers voted for Clinton in the 90’s who are now Republicans. He also has appeal to white southerners which is why he’s being deployed in Georgia and North Carolina. All hands on deck. Use him strategically which they are.

If the Eagles move on from Sirianni, that would be a good landing spot for Johnson.

Actually, Obama is having a rally today, and he's just getting started.

Obama is already scheduled for a Pittsburgh rally. I like deploying Clinton in the south.

The only ones I can think that may not vote Harris who voted Biden in 2020 are Muslims. The only state that could have an effect is Michigan but Michigan is the most left leaning of the swing states. There are a lot more Republicans this cycle saying they are voting for Harris than any cycle in memory. I also don’t the electoral advantage is as big as it had been in the past for Trump.

Speaking of 2016, 538 had Clinton at 48.5, Trump at 44.9, and Johnson at 5. Clinton finished at 48.2 but Trump at 46.1 and Johnson at 3.2. Trump got enough of that Johnson vote combined with a small move to Stein that gave him a slim win in three states. This year there isn’t a 3rd party polling at 5%. That’s why the margins are slimmer.

No, you can have it.

The polls got Hillary’s numbers exactly right. There were more 3rd party voters and undecideds in 2016. They went massively for Trump likely on the news of the emails. He also barely won. Clinton won the popular vote and it came down to less than 100k votes across three states. In 2016 Trump was an unknown. He isn’t any more and elections from 2022 are more relevant than 8 years ago.

But she is doing better than Trump in polls. She still leads in the aggregate and in the battlegrounds.

It’s like people forget Haley was getting a good chunk of votes over a month after she dropped out.

She’s now outpacing Biden in multiple districts in Pennsylvania.

*DUCKS*

NYT has been releasing funky polls. She isn’t losing Florida by 13. Besides, that poll had her up 3 nationally. If there was that big of a shift in Florida, that means she’s doing better in swing states. I also question Quinnipiac having Pennsylvania to the left of Michigan and Wisconsin.

She isn’t campaigning in Indiana. The office is in Gary and that district can be competitive. It’s also close to SW Michigan.

None of them have been accurate. Trafalgar got lucky in 2016 because they were off in the right direction. No non partisan poll in September showed Trump with a lead in Pennsylvania. Susquehanna, a quality Pennsylvania pollster, just showed a 9 point shift in a district Trump won. Let’s not forget Democrats have been outperforming polls ever since Dobbs and Trump underperformed in the primary. Oh wait, using actually elections makes me a cheerleader. I just need to piss my pants over polls we know are flawed like you.

And yet you still got sucked into the bad polling.

Harris opened a campaign office in Indiana as well.

The polls have been looking good for Harris. The Pennsylvania ones in particular. MAGA is flooding a lot of right wing polls like they did in 2022.