It’s going to be a very close race. I question whether he can connect with enough of the voters in the middle that can be swayed. It may not be right and it may not be fair but his name is Abdul El-Sayed. That’s something that he’s going to have to get over in this state.
History also tells us what happens when candidates count on the college and young voters in midterms. They don’t show up as much as in Presidential cycles. That’s a real issue for Abdul in tight race.
I also fear that Trump will use ICE as a weapon in Dearborn and that will also have an impact on voter turnout. Those numbers will trend lower for any Democrat candidate so if Abdul is counting on Dearborn coming in huge that may have an impact.