This is what I am leaning towards too, but I do think this year's PAC 12 is better than last year's Big 12. The 2022-23 TCU squad (which had already lost to Kansas State) probably doesn't beat Oregon twice. I also think this year's Michigan team is worse than last year's Georgia team. Though you're not claiming that M will beat them 65-7, so that's neither here nor there really.
I have a really hard time seeing Washington getting Michigan to engage in a shootout. UW scored 31+ in 11 of their 14 games this season, which made up for some really bad defensive showings (42 to USC, 33 to Stanford, and 32 to Cal all stand out). Michigan didn't allow more than 24 all season, while also never scored less than 24 on offense.
Something's got to give, and I seriously doubt Michigan is about to surrender 51 like they did to TCU. Even if Penix is on, I think Michigan will control the bleeding and take back the tempo of the game. It's worth pointing out again that Michigan's mistakes against Alabama probably resulted in 11 points of swing throughout the game, and they still won. They are just such a good and complete football team. Meanwhile though, you can't rule out Washington. They've been underdogs in three of their last four games. They are comfortable in this position.
I won't make a prediction yet, but overall I do like Michigan's chances.