MichiganCardinal

Last time they traded up in the 1st round was also with Minny, in 2010, going from #34 to #30 for Jahvid Best. The Vikings selected Chris Cook (CB) at #34, who didn't survive his rookie contract and is long out of football now. There was also the Roy Williams trade in 2009 where the Lions sent Williams and a 7th Rounder to the Cowboys for a 1st, 3rd, and 6th Round pick, and then managed to screw up fleecing the Cowboys by selecting Brandon Pettigrew, Derrick Williams, and Aaron Brown. I did some looking back out of curiosity. In 1999, they traded #39 (plus a 3rd and 5th) to the Dolphins to move up to #27 and select Aaron Gibson (OT), who did not last. The Dolphins selected JJ Johnson (RB) at #39, and he did not last either.Beyond that though, nothing even approaches this level of first round aggressiveness in Lions history.

I compared the Lions to the Jaguars during free agency when I appreciated the way the Lions were building things (slow with short-term contracts to start) as opposed to the Jags (throwing obscene amounts of money at their holes). Using the same comparison, I think the Lions are doing well in really building the offense to be one of the best in the league, whereas the Jags are - to this point - neglecting their biggest asset in Trevor Lawrence. Picking up Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd is great, but even the best defense in the NFL last year (Buffalo) allowed 18.3 points per game last year. Compare that to ten years ago (2011), when eight teams averaged less than 20 points per game allowed, or 18 years ago (2003 - as far back as where I looked goes), and 15 teams allowed 20 or fewer ppg. It appears that Holmes is attempting to make the Detroit offense as high-octane as possible, while getting the defense to a point where it is at least league average, or in other words, "good enough". In today's NFL, you have to be able to put up 24+ points every game to expect to win. The expectation that the Jacksonville defense can hold their opponents to less than 20 points, and that TLaw can magically manufacture three TDs a game is a relic of the football that was played when we were growing up. Nowadays, having a really good defense is a luxury, not a requisite to win a lot of football games. I'm not sure if I would go so far as to expect a RB or TE with the #46 pick. That's not to say I am necessarily opposed, depending on who else is there, but part of the strategy I prescribed to Holmes above involves the defense evolving to a "good enough" point, which the defense at present is not. Just as you can't expect to win 10-9 ten or more times, you can't expect to win 49-45 ten times either. The linebackers on this team currently are just not even at replacement level.

FWIW, you can fill in the blank there with whoever the Lions selected. There is no way he knew the Lions were taking Williams before the trade was completed. That would be stupid.

I’m sure Trevor Lawrence is somewhere loving the draft capital being spent on their defense

Plenty of TEs out there

Lots of trades late

I’m shocked Jermaine Johnson is still on the board. He has the potential end up being the best edge taken.

Ford Field is happy

Love the annual tradition of three months not being enough time and the NFL making the #1 pick use up 70% of their time for no damn reason.

Can’t refute science.

I’m headed downtown for the STM Draft Party. Look for me if it’s televised, I’m wearing a Lions sweatshirt.

I think the intelligent fans (including those who frequent this site) won’t lose their mind. There will be dissent but I think there will be a general understanding (assuming it’s Walker or Thibs over Hutch). The drunk uncle who clamored for Orlovsky/Hill/Daniel/etc. over Stafford every Thanksgiving for a decade will loudly hate it, but I try not to listen to them anyway.

Before the Ohio State game, KT was universally crowned as the best edge rusher in the class. Since then, his drop in perception - however small it may be - seems to have come from rumors and speculation rather than performance. It’s not as if he’s been injured or if some bombshell exploit has come out. It’s been behind the scenes people throwing it at the wall about him not loving football. And if that’s evaluated to be nonsense, I see no reason to not continue to value him above Hutch. Realistically, I don’t think there is a “wrong” answer in any of Walker, Hutch, and Thibs.

That’s what I mean though. Matt Nelson filled that role last year really well for the Lions. We acquired him as a 2019 UDFA. If we are just looking for someone to fill that role, we shouldn’t look higher than a 6th round pick. If we are looking for a red zone threat though, I’m perfectly okay with 3rd round or later.

I wouldn’t mind it. Coming into this whole thing, Thibs was the universal #1. In fact, he was the universal #1 for a while, until everyone started overanalyzing everything (as happens every draft). If Holmes and Campbell are not worried about all the off the field rumors, and Sewell gave them a positive report, then I think it makes sense. By many accounts, Thibs has a higher ceiling than Hutch.

Subject to some changes before tomorrow, but this is probably my final version:

Decent blocking TEs practically grow on trees. They’re almost never one-on-one with the defender they’re blocking at the point of attack and if they are one-on-one downfield, it’s in a similar position as a wide receiver would be in. Even if the Lions are considering using more six-lineman fronts with a TE instead of an OT (like they did some with Matt Nelson last year), any draftable TE prospect should be able to fill that role. There is no reason to expend a draft selection solely for a blocking TE when they’ll be playing aside Sewell and Decker. If blocking is all we need, we should look to sign a quality UDFA or draft a 7th rounder like Noah Gindorff or Cole Turner. That said, I think having a good blocking TE who can also be a red zone threat would be a great compliment to Hock. I don’t think we should look to take a TE before 97. At 97 and beyond though, if Otton/Ruckert/Ferguson are there, they can be a really strong addition to the offense.

One for fun... And one more realistic...

I would like to see MLB discipline the Yankees organization as well. A game or two in an empty stadium, or loss of the ability to sell alcohol for a week would send a message to not just the knuckleheads who needed to make it all about them, but to every franchise and every fan of baseball that this won't be tolerated. If it's not intrinsic, you have to create an environment against anyone doing this in the future. Want a beer at your next game? Point out the loser who threw his and don't join in.

If the Lions wanted to trade Decker and pick (insert OT here) I’m okay with that, but they need to do it in that order if that’s their plan. If you select Neal or Ekwonu with Decker and Sewell here, you’re creating a Baker Mayfield type problem (with a better player), where other teams know you need to get rid of him, thereby lowering Decker’s trade value.

I think everything Holmes has done this offseason tells you they will not be in the market for Deebo.

I’m starting to like Thibs a little more than Walker at #2. I’m not turned off to Walker like I am some of the non-edge prospects. It feels though that as the draft cycle runs it’s course, we are back to where we started with Thibs clearly being the best natural pass rusher in the draft. Keep it simple and take him if he’s there.

I think they should have "given up and tanked" before acquiring Adams. I agree they can't really change their minds afterwards, but I think extending Carr like this is just prolonging the amount of time they'll spend in NFL purgutory,

I think their better option was to not try and engage in the current arms race occurring in their division and to launch a rebuild. I don’t think Carr is ever going to win them a Super Bowl. He might not actively lose them games, but he’s not good enough to carry the team to postseason success. Sell assets and go for one of Stroud/Young next year, or kick the Carr can down the line on a one or two year deal if you can’t get them. Not at $40MM a year though. At that point, sure, take Mayfield or any other filler.

I like the idea of Okudah finally living up to half of his expectations and being the second of that lethal combo.