I'm not super sure - it's hard to say b/c we knew so little at the time some of the things were happening. Or now we generalize (or maybe over-generalizing) characteristics of the most recent variant onto the past variants. I remember wondering back at the beginning, when SE Michigan, NYC, and some of the west coast were getting crushed, if they weren't different variants at that point.
I know this isn't what you were asking, but if someone speculates that we'd be in the place as we are now if we'd done a bunch of crap differently, I can also speculate that we'd be in a different place as we are now if we'd done a bunch of crap differently, and we'd both just be speculating. To me chances are we'd be in a much different place if we behaved differently and speculation parries speculation.
Maybe that's just a fancy way of saying "cool predictions of a fake world" bro and also coming up with cool predictions of a fake world. Because cool predictions of a fake world are really easy to do, to me there's not much value in cool predictions of a fake world.
We saw countries not do restrictions and they said it was a mistake.