Shelton

Agreed. That was a convenient answer that the media would take and run with, and that much of the fanbase would buy. There is no way that Scott Harris based a decision on a single game’s outcome.

I think technically Skubal will become a free agent a few days after the World Series ends. So it would not exactly be an extension in that case (unless he were signed shortly after the dodgers lose to the tigers in game 7). But I do think that teams interested in signing Skubal for big money will be motivated to get it done before December 1.

I don’t believe it either. But let’s be clear it was Tarik that could not pitch 7 IP and AJ that let him stay him.

The position I had was to say that no one was suggesting the tax fix affected a Skubal-related comp pick. The overall point remains the same. The skubal trade had the added benefit of fixing the tax problem and ensuring that the comp picks (however many there end up being) are maximized. Realistically, we do not know whether we will get a pick from Mize because Mize could be traded in the next two hours, or he could accept the QO after a slow finish or injury. Or he might have trouble finding a deal for 50 million if a draft pick is attached. So it’s not a given that we are getting a Mize-related first round comp pick either.

I think they give him a QO, yes. If washed up JV types cost you 1/15, then Jack is worth 1/23 or whatever it is. I think he would probably accept it, though, for the same reason he opted in to a similar 1 year option entering this year. He's been really good in June and July prior to the injury.

Flaherty is the second one.

Yes. I understand JJ has to produce content, but he’s stretching to find comparable deals here. First, Skubal is a tier above all of the guys mentioned. Second, the tigers are presently in a more competitive position than any of those teams. That increases the level of return necessary to justify a trade. Scott Harris knows the hit rate on prospects. He’s not going to settle for a combo package like Avila, mostly because he can legitimately say to every interested team trying to call his bluff that he will just keep Skubal and make the playoffs. And he might be right.

Heard about it this morning and it made me so sad. Dude has been responsible for so much art that I really connected with.

lol, “sources” Cubs don’t have the juice to get a deal done, and we also are not trading him.

We’re on the same page. I think at most we disagree on what type of owner Chris is. Because I feel like he has shown enough instances of taking on salary or overpaying for dudes that digging in and spending to keep his first true star is something in his wheelhouse. Just because he hasn’t signed “that” contract yet doesn’t mean he won’t ever do it. I’m not gonna stake my claim either way. I’m just saying it’s well within the realm of possibility. I get the sense you think it’s closer to zero than 10%. And that’s fine because these numbers are made up anyway and the score doesn’t matter.

I think we need both Lee and Torres to keep this offense propped up. If they go 7-3 and trade Skubal or Mize then fire everyone.

Daniella is great. She is no Shannon Hogan, but then again no one is.

I think Stavenhagen happened upon Skubal at a particular time and with him in a particular mood and Skubal got caught saying something stupid that he probably didn’t mean to say the way he did. My guess is that Cody shared the quotes with his editor and they felt like they hit a gold mine and now we have a “Story”. I think the story being told here is being clouded a bit by hindsight. Whatever was going on with him at the time didn’t stop him from simply pushing through and training and going to the WBC and starting the season. It’s easy to say after the fact, and after the surgery was successful, that he had some suspicions in January. And yes, when you are in a negotiating period of course you are going to be less likely to share anything that might hurt your position. After getting the contract award on Feb 3 he also didn’t get it checked out, and it seems hard to believe that heading into his contract year he would take a risk of putting something off and potentially costing him a lot more than whatever the arbitration contract dispute was. So, I think whatever he was actually feeling was incredibly minor, and it indeed took until that start in late April for it actually be a thing. Not sure why he decided to word things the way he did, but it makes him look bad. I’m sure he regrets saying it the way he did, but I suspect he is getting caught up in being the face of the trade deadline.

Well that is what my point is. The tigers absolutely can. Whether or not they will is a different discussion so I agree. But I don’t agree that they certainly won’t. All of these concerns apply equally to the other teams, too, as you noted. I think there is a big disconnect in how the media declares what some teams have to do vs what other teams have to do when presented with very similar scenarios, and I don’t think it’s right to just wave it away by saying “yeah but those other teams have more money” because to me that is irrelevant when the smaller team still has “enough” money, and that’s true of almost every team. Whether or not a particular group will actually use it is another story, and I think it’s often just a matter of time. Until this offseason Harris hadn’t signed a 100MM contract, until he did. He never came close to the luxury tax, until he did. The fact that they have practiced such austerity up until this offseason presents them with the ability and opportunity to do a deal that might qualify as market busting. I would need to think about it a lot more to figure out whether I think they should.

They could dump Kenley, finnegan, Vierling, or McKinstry on another team and ask for nothing in return and get out of this dilemma. Each of these guys provides a function that is basically commensurate with the salary being paid. Someone can use one of them. Just last year Harris traded nothing in return for mediocre/ bad dudes and took on all the salary so he didn’t have to give up anything. That’s standard operating practice. My guess is that they are waiting until right up to the deadline to make the specific call on which guy to dump. Obviously if they tank this next week and become sellers and it doesn’t matter.

They haven’t had a reason to spend big on anyone in a while. In the past they have. They are pushing up against the tax limit this season. They can sign him. The idea they cannot is silly. And it doesn’t really matter matter how much revenue to assign to him specifically. Just seems like people are relying on old and inaccurate data about what the tigers can do financially.

Do you mean ability to remain competitive by signing other players rather than filling your system with prospects and hoping some of them are solid major leaguers? Or do you mean the ability to re-sign the FA to be? I do think it is interesting how much the media buys into these restrictions. Because I think the tigers and the vast majority of other major league teams that aren’t in the uber markets are more than able to sign competent MLB players and even retain their stars, and least to a reasonable extent. For instance, we could easily keep Skubal, just like we were able to keep JV. We just can’t afford to also sign Upton and Zimmermann and Cabrera and Victor and Fielder and have them all bomb. Anyway, I reject the premise. But it’s also more than just those uber-teams that hold their FA to be when they aren’t effectively eliminated.

I think it’s really hard to get a sense on how this deadline will go, because Harris has never been in a position where the team’s playoff outlook was in question. And we don't have many examples from other teams in the recent past where they were a seller while still have a decent chance (better than 20% or so) of making the postseason. We definitely have not seen a deadline where a high-performing rental player was “available” from a team in that kind of situation. All of the really good rentals from years past were on teams headed to the postseason. Judge, Soto, Cease, Alonso, Ranger, Framber, etc. The odds of any one of those teams actually winning the World Series was never high enough to not make keeping a guy a big “risk” of losing him for nothing. Yet these teams held. So, I don’t know. I think unless the team truly has almost no chance, I think teams hold. Not because they think they are actually going to win (the field is always a much bigger favorite), but because this is why they play these games. They play to win and making moves that hurt a team with even a reasonable chance to win goes against most of what these folks stand for. I don’t recall anyone insisting that the yanks or Mets or padres or whatever had to trade their star pending FA or risk losing him for nothing.

Are any of these high school pitchers particularly interesting? What is the hope here? Sign Leblanc for like 100k below slot or whatever and offer 300k to each of them and say first one to take it gets it? Are each of these kids considered tough signings enough that they don’t expect to get any of them for 150k? Anyway, thanks for the info. Seems like relatively small stakes for these late rounders but it will be nice if they get one of them

It’s possible that Chris has tried on his dad’s pants and liked the fit well enough that he’s already effectively committed to Boras that he’s gonna do what it takes to keep Skubal in Detroit. I’ve mentioned this before, maybe not here, but the last few weeks in Ilitch-controlled sports franchises have been out of the ordinary. He fired yzerman because of another rebuild on the horizon. Skubal is dropping quotes in the media about not wanting to be traded. Guys like Buster Olney and Bob Nightengale have done a complete 180 on “what the tigers have to do” and it coincided with Skubal’s comments. We know that Boras uses direct connections with ownership and uses the national media to manipulate the market. This to me suggests that Chris has maybe had enough and is ready to be more aggressive than he has been. Sick of the process and austerity. Adding salary at the deadline, or even simply not cutting enough salary, would be another data point. But I think that decision would have to be informed by current/prior knowledge of what the offseason plans are going to be.

Can someone clarify what or who specifically we are tracking here? Was there someone picked that was expected to be a tough sign? It appears they have more than full slot available to sign the 2nd rounder. What is the “interesting” aspect happening here?

What is your favorite SNL line that may have contributed to the mathphobia bringing our society to its knees?

I forgot that Kerry Carpenter was on the team.

All this said, I do think Scotty deserves some blame for allowing the payroll to approach the limit. There were plenty of ways to end up at 240 instead of 244. One of these was not gambling on the Skubal arbitration. Even if Boras and Skubal were going to trial no matter what, you could have gone against the MLB recommendation and offered the higher midpoint number, if only to make sure they didn’t end up against the tax limit if they lost. The counter to that is the number of injuries this year is so high that even a conservative projection wouldn’t have them adding as much extra salary as they have had to.

He doesn’t have the greatest track record, though. I guess it depends how confident he is that he will get that other offer. I don’t think it’s a given that he even declines the QO. But that’s why I said it was a gut feeling. I’m trying to recall what this history is, and best I can remember he didn’t like being put on the 60 day last season, and they also were close to going to an arbitration hearing. Is there something else?