Shelton

He doesn’t have the greatest track record, though. I guess it depends how confident he is that he will get that other offer. I don’t think it’s a given that he even declines the QO. But that’s why I said it was a gut feeling. I’m trying to recall what this history is, and best I can remember he didn’t like being put on the 60 day last season, and they also were close to going to an arbitration hearing. Is there something else?

Also worth noting that the high comp pick for losing a QO guy requires the new contract to be more than 50. In Skubal’s case that’s obvious. And probably a safe bet that Mize would sign for 50+ (although if teams are still penalized by losing picks to sign QO guys, you never know). Would Flaherty sign for 50+ with a loss of picks attached? The tax thing to me is all about the Comp A pick and the Skubal comp pick. My gut tells me that Mize will be back with the tigers, and that Jack would accept a QO if offered.

This is so tasty

What is the threshold for being a seller or not? I have settled on needing to be 54-58 or better at the deadline. As long as 54 wins at the deadline is still in reach I’m holding. As soon as 54 wins is not achievable by the deadline, I’m willing to pull the trigger on a good deal. That means a 10-6 record in the next 16 games leading to the deadline. Things can change very quickly over the next 2.5 weeks. If things in the AL change over the next couple weeks maybe my target will change.

I still think they have to have a plan to do something to cut salary and avoid the tax in the event they aren’t trading Skubal and Mize. It doesn’t have to be Tork or anyone in particular, but it inherently has to be someone that fits the mold of being good enough to justify the elevated salary being dumped, but also not too good that they would be substantially missed. Tork is one example of that. That said, they are indeed short on right handed hitters and also shortstops, so Tork and Vierling and McKinstry might have to stay. The list starts getting pretty short if they aren’t being moved. One thought discussed with a former poster today was Jack Flaherty. He makes enough to get below the tax if he is moved. He’s pitching well enough and SP being in short supply across the league probably means you could actually get something for him (just like last time). At the moment he is part of a six man rotation and we do have Jobe on his way back. It would be a risk, but if this depth still exists, maybe an old school challenge trade of Jack in return for a right handed 1B/OF that makes less money could be a possibility. This is all moot if they become sellers.

Perhaps. In that case I can’t imagine it would require anything substantial. If you can trade Jahmai for a PTBNL I think you could dump Vierling or McKinstry (two players who at least can fill a roster spot and not hurt you) for nothing also. Assuming a minor cost it would clearly be worth it to ensure the high draft picks.

If they don’t “sell” they will still trade a guy like Vierling, Tork, McKinstry to get under the number.

I think you’d need to find a team that somehow found a nugget a value in the player and contract. Like, maybe there is a second division team with a distinct need at 1B this year and next and would basically just take Tork for nothing. Maybe they think there is some small amount of of surplus value there and the cost control is nice to have. It’s also hard to envision Scott Harris being content with exceeding the tax limit by such a small amount, when the penalty is as significant as it is. So I do wonder their plan is in the event that they are not sellers. Maybe it’s as simple as getting enough guys back from the DL and their projections look good for that, and they don’t need to do much of anything.

The Tigers really are quite lucky that their outlier injury situation corresponded to an outlier season in the AL overall, where only three good teams are having success. Outside of the top 3, it really is quite tight. Compare this to the NL, where five teams are above 75% and the next team is at 40%. It can be tough to reconcile the odds with what the standings show from a games behind standpoint at this point of the season. That’s going to be the tough part when we get to the end of July.

As a person who has the peacock service already as well as Apple TV, I tend to ignore these types of things. But today just feels like too much. It’s one thing for a game or two per month to end up on one of these exclusive non-traditional cable services, but to pull every game from every team off of its local broadcast on the same day seems insane. I don’t really agree that golf being on in the afternoon means all that much. But I do agree that no one wants this or cares about this “event”. It takes a lot to piss off fans of literally every team in the same day.

The knockout field is watered down. That’s not really debatable. It’s ok if people don’t mind that or even prefer it. I dislike it. I would have liked to have seen the discourse had Germany not lost in penalties and gotten the France matchup. Having group winners Germany and France (or any two group winners for that matter) playing each other in the round of 16 feels wrong to me. That’s a systemic problem that by design weakens the quarterfinal field. When it’s one of the weaker group winners playing one of the better ones, people don’t really notice the issue (like Mexico vs England). But yes, it’s a tournament and you gotta win the games. Just like any playoff the purpose is not to make sure that the best team is the one that wins. But I do prefer a setup that does a better job seeding than what we are seeing here. Selfishly, as a supporter of the US team, it’s great.

I will also say that I’m not necessarily saying this is a bad thing. But it is a thing. Is the March madness-ification of the World Cup good or bad? Probably need to see this out.

Wanted to revisit this now that we are at the last 16. Indeed, first place Germany lost in the round of 32. Even if they hadn’t, they would be playing right now against France in the round of 16. A matchup of two group winners in the round of 16. Anyway, we are in the round of 16 with a third place teams alive (for the next few minutes), and a couple first place teams gone. Maybe the quarterfinals turn out to be decent teams, but the extra round has already cost us two group winners not reaching the round of 16, so it does feel like the knockouts are getting watered down.

If you look at Clark’s rolling wOBA graph on PS, he’s been on a pretty significant upswing since he bottomed out following his hot start. He’s done the “start hot, struggle, figure it out” cycle now that you often hear management point to as a pre-requisite for a call-up. Max A is doing fine but a step behind Max C. Putting aside all of the roster spot and service time benefit cynicism, we are approaching the sweet spot of MLB need and prospect success where I could see a call-up as soon as this weekend and as late as mid-August. But I think the reality is that Scott Harris loves to maintain his surplus roster benefits so the mid August call feels like a pretty strong lock.

I read that Wenceel was back in Detroit. But yeah, when there are comments like “not expected to have long term damage to vision” that kind of implies that he’s got at least some substantial damage to his vision currently. Gleyber missed a month with his last lat strain so it seems likely that he will be on a similar timeline. I think we will roll with the present roster until either of those guys comes back, but that seems like 3-4 weeks away at the earliest. I do not see them making a 40-man move to call up a guy like Ben Malgieri. I do think there is a chance that one of the Maxes catches fire with the bat over the next few weeks and that there are some real considerations to making a call-up, but I do not think it’s a high chance. And I think as we get further into July it also increases the chance that we don’t see either until the magical mid-August date that preserves rookie status next season even if they are starting to force the issue. So yeah, until such time as two hitters need to be added back to the roster, I think Jones remains. But it gets more dicey if one comes back and Jones remains ice cold.

Yes, this is an important point. In my view it’s a big difference if you are replacing guys with young players that have sort of upside. Replacing Torres with Lee is a good example of a move that can pay off long term. He can copay isn’t likely to keep it up but at least there is some ceiling. Those may lineups with Short, Wenceel, Jones, Workman, AND Lee were just brutal. I do think Jones may be on borrowed time at this point, especially if Lee continues to hit enough. Cruz is still probably first to go, though. But that’s a decision for another day when somebody returns from injury. It’s hard to keep track of which hitters are out. Meadows, Javy, Gleyber, Wenceel? It easy to say when we are winning, but I like our lineup a lot more with guys playing their actual positions and simply being competent with the bat. That can go a long when you get all star caliber play from guys like Kevin and Dingler and Riley, and baseline level play from carpenter and Keith and maybe torkelson.

Hinch masterclass.

I hated that Jones PH yesterday in the moment. I do wonder whether it was likely that Kerry would also come up against a lefty in his next AB, too. Rock ended up pitching 2.1 innings. And Murphy pitched later. Plus, Vierling in CF and Kerry in RF was not ideal so being able to insert outman in CF and move vierling to RF was a positive side effect. Outman did go 2x2 in that spot with an RBI and run scored. Does Hinch get credit in the database for this series of events?

Agreed. He’s not banging down the door. My primary point is that he did earn his 40 man spot and with that comes these opportunities. And his plate appearances so far this season were limited by injury so it’s also not unreasonable to give a bit of a pass if he’s having a slow start and to put a bit more stock into his breakout from last year. His savant page for 2025 was pretty red, which is not bad for a SS/CF. He’s also an old 27, rather than 28. Don’t they look at age as of July 1?

I recall he had a breakout year last season, and it was good enough that they actually protected this 28 year old in the rule 5. I think he also was having a very nice spring and was in various discussions among the sophisticates as having a chance to break camp with the team. But it is 2026 so he became injured. He definitely had a long road to the majors and was looming like a flop for a long time.

I think it’s hard to get upset about moves that were not made because there are always two sides to a deal. Personally, I would have liked Harris to have gotten one of the possible deals done for Bregman that were rumored.

lol, I’ll say it! Thisnis the classic college football argument about talent vs resume. Yes, whoever makes it there will have the visit beat some good teams. But as you said, it’s the single elimination randomness that gets cracked up by adding an extra round. I’m also not sure that the third place teams that get through will necessarily be good. By your argument the fact they could t finish top two must mean they suck 😉 But what I mean is that third place teams are going to be those teams in groups that have a terrible fourth team that goes 0-0-3. You’ve got to some get points ts but not finish in the top two, so it feels like you are going to have the classic third place team that went 1-1-1 and would have been out on GD that gets through. We’ll see, but the fact we are basically taking the prior World Cup field of 32 and effectively putting them straight into the knockout is bound to cause more early exits for the blue bloods.

I think the knockout round is going to be weird. I think people are underestimating the added variance of adding a round of 32 and how that will even the playing field a bit. The World Cup champion is going to have to win five knockout games. And there are going to be some “matchups of death” in the rounds of 32 and 16. I think if you make it to the round of 8, you may find that the field is weaker than years past. You never know. You might get Loyola in the final four.

I’m just happy you gave some props to my boy Alistair.

Ok, so I know this guy was somewhat controversial during his time as beat writer, but honestly Evan P gives the same vibes. Anyway, in hindsight I think he may have been the best we have had in the past decade. His new book is an interesting time capsule. I’m probably 1/3 of the way through it and at the very least it provides some interesting insight into the life of a beat writer, and to a team that we all followed during that period. Plus he drags McCosky a couple times so far. I started it on his website for free. I paid amazon the one dollar to get it on my kindle for easier viewing. Anyone else reading this?