gehringer_2

doesn't answer the question really. 180 million Americans don't vote and a lot of them are plugged into their AirPods listening to something...... His audience just strikes me as a good fit for people who listen to be entertained but are detached. Just my impression but that's why I'd be interested in knowing, sadly I doubt anyone has ever added 'do you listen to Joe Rogan' to an election exit poll survey. 🙃

that's fair enough - I read your previous post to get to a different take. As I posted before, my only question in that risk/reward for Harris about Rogan would be whether his listeners are voters at all.

I understand that argument, but I'm not persuaded of its strength. I don't think the Trump voter cares if he sees Trump on MSNBC or even CNBC. That voter is perfectly content to get his Trump fix from the captive media RW media sphere. OTOH, I don't see Trump's managers allowing him to go onto neutral ground given his current state no matter what comparison Harris tries to establish. At this point the risks to him with the uncommitteds and GOP habit voters are worse to show himself live than to just stick with advertising.

it's sort of interesting - in the earlier days of live interviews, if an interviewer asked a question that the interviewee didn't want to answer, the normal response was to give a reason why they weren't going to address that question. Today, the SOP by virtually all candidates - not only Harris by any means, is just to ignore the question and talk about what they want to talk about. I won't say it doesn't seem off putting to me, but at this point I have to believe all this stuff is so thoroughly audience tested that they must believe that's the better course.

Oil under $75/bbl on news that Israel has supposedly agreed not to hit Iranian oil facilities. This dance between Israel and Iran is certainly a very odd one. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-extends-losses-report-israel-220954067.html

TBH, at this point Rogers may retain more skills as a GM than as a QB...... 🤷‍♀️

Exactly - that is the issue. The other questions are how much of Rogan's audience is persuadable, or even votes? I'd want to answer those questions before bothering to play out the downside risk scenarios.

Aye - there's the rub. Your average low information GOP habituated voter is just going to be working from an assumption that a party wouldn't run a person that was becoming incompetent by the day, after all the Dems pulled Biden, isn't that proof there are sufficient firewalls? They have no real sense of the collapse of the GOP integrity and the complicity of the mass media's normalization of Trump. And to some degree it's the nature of the beast. Dementias can be fairly narrow, are each different, and they are often easy to ignore/miss without spending longer periods of time than the US media is ever prepared to spend. When my mother started failing, she was so clever and her language faculty so good, that he could engage her doctors easily in a 10 or 15 minute encounter, but spend the day with her and the fact the she was 'looping' and that her ability to integrate short term memory was failing became clear.

loss of inappropriate impulse inhibition. It's been getting more obvious in his speech patterns and now it's bleeding into his physical states. You are watching the process of the frontal cortex disconnecting from its supervisory functions. Likely vascular dementia progressing.

I will never forgive them for crushing my McGuffey's Readers dreams in '61.

I thought is was interesting that Harris tried to make a case that Javy's hip issues were contributing to his ineffectiveness at the plate with the clear implication that with the hip repaired there is some reason to hope he might return to offensive productivity. I don't know if I believe any of that for a minute, but I'll still hold out some hope it may be true.

Cleveland hasn't beaten NYY in regulation this season. 2-4 and the 2 were both won in extras. Definitely need to see them flip that script. Wings will be at MSG tonight as well so we can look to double hex the big Apple.

LOL - they can try to talk him up all they like, it's not likely going to change how other MLB GMs evaluate Mize. If we trade him now we'll be selling pretty much at rock bottom. They'd have to be really done with him - and maybe they are. I think I've already posted before that my doubts about Mize at this point are as much about whether he can master the mental aspects of being a winning pitcher as his arm. Ditto for Manning FTM.

I wonder how this plays in MAGA land? It would sort of be the test of whether the appeal is the man or the movement.

There are enough professional training operations out there with spin capable hitting machines that I imagine a guy can get in a lot of off season hitting work today without going to winter ball. Whether it's as useful as live pitching with sequencing under game stress is always debatable - though players probably don't take winter ball outcomes all that seriously anyway. A lot has been made of Torkelson's supposed resistance to coaching, but he looked to me to be swinging at a lot more pitches early after his return than before he was sent down, not to mention that the Tigers would never have brought him back up if he not gotten with the program. Hinch and Co. have been very clear that promotions are rewards for doing what you have been tasked.

the question bears on whether pinch-hitting is any easier than it used to be as more stadium have more facilities available for players to prep.

are players not currently in the game allowed to use clubhouse facilities like the indoor cage?

Arenado looks like he's been giving up swinging for power to keep up his OBP, HR's are on a 3 yr decline along with his OPS. It's 'only' $64M but if his decline continues along the same line you will be paying it to a <90 OPS+. Older guys are such a crap shoot. Bregman is 3 yrs younger but his OPS+ has also declined in each of the last 3 yrs though by less. In fairness hitting was down across the league this season.

They don't have to, they already have what's left of his devolving intellect well under control (evidence his new found commitments to major administration roles for Elon etc.) But if it this noise does get people a little more focused on what a bad outcome President Vance would be, all for the better.

I thought Harris' discussion about the tension in Torkelson's approach between 'covering shapes' (basically not taking called strikes) and driving the ball (hunting middle middle mistakes) was interesting and spot on - and then tied directly to Hinch talking about Meadows changing approach against Boyd to stop trying to pull. And it reminds me that almost all of hitting goes back to what Kaline used to talk about - that the first thing for the hitter is to understand is what the pitcher is trying to do.

i wonder if it isn't much harder for a player to have a Whitakerish career arc anymore though. You pretty much have to have Bill James 'old man' skills, namely power, to get to the big leagues even as a young man. I'm not sure orgs have the patience anymore to bring low power contact guys like Whitaker - and Trammel for that matter - along hoping they eventually become the power hitters those two did.

You're always happy to have been wearing something snug when that happens because seeing your limb with a 90deg angle where it shouldn't be is bad enough without actually seeing the bones sticking out. (been there) It looked to me like Hutch made no attempt to move the leg. That was the smart thing to do. You can only do more damage trying act the hero.

I think at this point both sides are playing games with the polling. I'll tell you what my biggest complaint is though. It's when pollsters claim the margin of error on their political polls based on their sample size. Now it's absolutely mathematically valid, that if you draw an *unbiased* sample of size N from a population that the math does tell you exactly what the confidence interval for your result is. But when you are getting less than a 1% response rate on your contact attempts and/or augmenting them with internet surveys that are 100% self-selected, and then applying correction factors to balance your sample according to your *theory* of how your sample relates to the true population, at that point you have no more justification for claiming the unbiased sample confidence interval for your result than the man in the moon.

Do you remember the one year he actually did lose a fair amount of weight, started the season slow and then claimed he needed to put the weight back on for his power? Clearly he had had plenty of power when he was younger and thinner!. To me that was the 2nd most disappointing action of his career because you knew then that he had just signed on for his success to end earlier than it had to.

Hopefully a clean break they can just set Surgery and fixation more likely if it's a spiral or there are fragments or maybe just to shorten recovery time. Small comfort but 100% recovery prognosis for a long bone fracture probably still better than ligament damage.