gehringer_2

🙈🙉🙊 Short term market movement is all about momentum and technical investing - it's all perceptions and the animal spirts, along with the added dose deliberate manipulations, fraud and FUD distribution.

right, and even then you have to differentiate between continuous flows and one time flows. The government threw a lot of fiscal dollars into the economy when the pandemic hit, but much of it was one time appropriation. Those are things which will inflate the money supply at a point and cause what is basically a step change increment in the general price level, but they are not drivers of continuing inflation the way an overly expansive Federal Reserve would be for instance. The effect of the big fiscal dump was transient in the same way the supply chain issues have been, they are not things the Fed needs long term response to 'wring out'. Now, all that said, as I've said before, the thing that may yet save us from any possible overreach by zealous money hawks is that since we started at zero, they have been able to push a lot of rate hike through, which makes them feel they are being effective, while still not hitting rates that I think are likey to crash the economy - as long as they have sense to stop soon.

PC sales have cratered and that's still a big driver for their business. Computer sales were one of the big beneficiaries of the work at home transisiton, but with that swinging back they are in the dumps. The Pandemic gaveth, and its passing is taking it away..

could well be.

The risk that I see is mostly with the Fed. They have a playbook they are working from that says you *have* to have an increase in unemployment that reaches some kind of pain level to bring prices under control. And that has been true enough in previous bouts of inflation, but while I generally have little sympathy for people who look at some economic situation and say 'this is different' when it really isn't, this is different - or at least different enough for any previous bout of inflation since the Federal Reserve system has developed the playbook they are currently reading from. The fact is that prior to the pandemic, the economy constantly under-inflated the Fed's targets, and as all the short term dislocations of the pandemic work their way through, that is the status quo the economy is going to tend back to by itself, which is not the situation of 1958 or 1980 or 1990 or 2001 or 2008 experiences that the Fed draws it playbook from. So the risk I see is that Fed is going to overshoot. The one confounding factor that makes things even more complicated is that the boomer retirement wave does have an effect driving up labor costs. But politically, progressives should be pushing the Fed to allow enough inflation to let working class wage rates go up, because that is the way you want to increase social equity in a market economy - give the market scope to reapportion a bigger share of total corporate income to workers.

that's a fair take.

He certainly seems to be showing signs of turning into a much better player than we had resigned ourselves to. His play last night was approaching what could almost be called 'dominant' . OK - maybe he's not quite there yet, but I'm certainly beginning to re-consider that he may have still unrealized upside. He wouldn't be the 1st big man that took a little longer to grow into his body.

I understand everything about the logic presented here except why a call up would stil wouldn't be in his interest while all the same stuff to get him moved to somewhere else is going on in the background? If only for the better meal money and higher class transportation. The guy who hasn't been able to stay in the majors is worried about getting 'trapped' in the majors because he performs too well on a team he doesn't prefer? I'll certainly take your word for it but it doesn't sound like very good career advice to follow! 😂

It remains to be seen if the Federal Reserve will yet muck it up by refusing to take yes as the answer.

sure - you can take a deeper sociological dive into constructs like peer pressure mediated self group hate, but I'm not sure any of that would pass the definitional smell test to the average Joe which is why I framed it as a matter of broader policing culture. I think in the end what we call it matters less than (and that debate can become a distraction from) the need to break the cycle by finding a way to get different people into US police forces. But we've produced a society in which policing is a terrible job. Like Pogo said, "We have met the enemy, and he is us."

OTOH - people who are looking for short term help at the deadline may not care about a guy's long term outlook if he's on a hot streak. He may have indeed have netted nothing, but there was an opportunity cost to not even trying to find out. The argument has been fairly made that there is opportunity cost if you don't give Grossman a chance to build his trade value - so it comes down to which player was more likely to have done what you needed him to do. For those of us who thought Robbie was toast, trying to shop him seemed more like wishful thinking. More generally, if you make enough incremental moves you might eventually find yourself a player or two ahead of the game down the road. This was always one of my complaints about Dombrowski - he couldn't be bothered with small roster value building moves - he was all home run trades and big FA signings. But when that runs out of gas you crash hard and wish you had some residual value built up from making those small building block moves. Harris working the waiver wires to try to leverage up something is encouraging in that direction.

He was never what you would call graceful but his skating looks especially labored right now. If he could stay on the ice maybe his legs would come back, or maybe he's just getting old young.

so one goal against on a turnover by Suter, the last goal probably doesn't happen if Veleno plays his man better. The weak links continue to be weak.

Rasmussen - almost the goat for late high stick, pairs with Seider to create a cookie for Fabbri. Too bad they don't play that way more during regulation!

MLB network already has the infrastructure to stream all the games since they already do - except in local markets where a Bally RSN has rights. If Bally collapses or if MLB somehow reclaims local broadcast right because Sinclair's reorg plan does get through, then you buy an MLB gameday subscription and you get your local games? Doesn't seem too impossible an outcome, but still seems likely the teams are going to end up with less revenue one way or the other.

the one here has been pretty much empty of any stock for several weeks now.

GDP up 2.9%, Jobless claims down to 187K. Mr. Powell isn't going to like any of that.

5 Memphis cops charges with 2nd Degree murder in death of a suspect. The cops and the victim were all black. Goes to the point that the problems in American policing are deeper than just racism, it's a broader policing culture itself which has become toxic in too many departments. The thing is I don't know how you can even begin to change that as long as the number of guns out there makes the job they do dangerous enough to radicalize them the way it does. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/26/us/tyre-nichols-death-memphis

The Sting is one of most perfectly constructed films you'll ever see. Of course It's not any kind of epic - rather a 'small' movie in scope - but the level of the craft at every point is exquisite. Newman's drunk poker game is one of my all time favorite set pieces. Robert Shaw's barely suppressed fury is played beautifully.

what an odd way to report that. Would someone be expecting him to do both jobs?

I sort of figured a couple of years ago when the talk of the Tigers/Wings/Ilitch starting their own network died down that meant they had done the due diligence on Sinclair to believe they were not going to collapse out from under them. I guess not, or it's just been too rapidly moving a target.

This is a logical argument, but the counter to that would be the theory that young players have age driven developmental 'windows' and if they don't develop certain skills before those windows close, most never will be able to. So under that theory a young ball player gets one bite at the development apple and he misses it, it's lost. Now I don't know proportionally how much that factor plays into things overall, but I am sure it is a real factor.

of course just to play Devil's advocate, this is exactly the argument an advertiser should make because it's a Devilishly hard one to verify quantitatively.....

and of course this ties into what should be everyone's worst fear, which we have touched on here before, which is the possibility that it is exactly Fetter's and Tigers' one reasonable point of success , which has been developing pitchers, (and maybe driveline tech in general) that may be one of the things helping to injure them and thus they will need to rework from scratch what has been a fairly successful developmental pitch shaping capability.

I think Graham is closet to the truth, too much of what is classified is for domestic political and bureaucratic protection purposes as opposed to protection of justified matters of clandestine sources or military technology. I have to believe that when people see that stuff they are handling isn't really all that important, it has to drive down the care they are willing to take.