mtutiger

In terms of Trump's capacity, the thing that has always been striking to me isn't his intelligence, it's his complete and total lack of empathy. He's clearly older and more forgetful now (and, who knows, may have some issues that we don't know about), but even when he was younger, the guy has always just come across like a deeply sociopathic and broken individual.

A lot of this evolution starts from the basic fact that he has never acknowledged that he lost in 2020.... why would the messaging change if you're convinced that you actually won and it was all stolen from you? Why would you think you need Haley voters if you're busy convincing yourself that all of those voters are "all Democrats"?

One of the largest balancing acts for Biden in this campaign is hitting on the freedom side of his message while still speaking to middle class economics (which he did a pretty good job of in his SOTU, imo). Gifts like this from Trump will help a lot.... but even aside from that takeaway, it's striking how Trump seems even less coherent than in the past, which is saying something. A whole lot of words that make absolutely no sense when you read them aloud.

Word salad, with a side of entitlement cuts

Wtf

Amazing what a little money from a TikTok investor can do lol

They never learn...

Unreal... all likely because Trump came put against

Real "Kim Dynasty" vibes here

Disgraceful, but not surprising at all... No disrespect to Jonathan Katz, but used to be the kind of story that, say, the NYT would dig up.

Clinton bears some blame in the three swing states because she didn't pay them enough attention... it's been beaten into the ground a lot, but she barely campaigned in Wisconsin in 2016, and spent time in states like Ohio, Georgia, Arizona, etc. which ended up being larger reaches than the campaign apparently believed. That's another area where I don't think 2016 and 2024 compare.... for better or worse, the battleground is pretty much set in 6 states (maybe 7 if you count NC). The two candidates know the field and are unlikely to be taking things for granted or expanding the map unless they absolutely have data to back up any reaches (similar to how Biden pumped resources into Georgia at the end of the 2020 campaign).

To the extent that there's a 2016 parallel in this election, there's a tendency for Trump and his supporters to get high off of their own supply. It's low key one of his bigger flaws as a candidate. They are the ones buying all the polls, and the campaign and candidate continually telegraphs that they "don't need" certain voters, etc. Which is part of why I am confident with whatever flaws Biden presents as a candidate, I expect that they will work a lot harder between now and November. The money piece is a factor too - they will have the resources to outwork the Trump campaign as well. It doesn't guarantee victory, but it makes it materially different than 2016 as well...

I didn't realize that the benefits of eliminating lead pipes was "speculative"

I dont think they will, for what it's worth. If anything, I expect them to work a lot harder than this iteration of the GOP under Trump. If he loses, it won't be because of effort

As a parent to a 5 year old, this speaks to me a lot

Which leads again to the question of, what's life after Donald like for the GOP? Biden, fairly or unfairly, gets a lot more scrutiny for his age, but Trump is 78 and in worse health (at least in all likelihood).

My goodness

The media coverage alone will help an decent amount IMO.... he hasn't had a lot of good news cycles in recent memory and he really flipped the script. But the cadence needs to ramp up starting now as well for lasting change.

On one hand, SOTU viewers tend to lean toward the POTUS party (ie. more Dems were likely watching last night), but given Biden's need to consolidate the base, that's still a good result.

It's a point worth re-emphasizing. It should be noted that it wasn't just the "GQP" doing it either.... members of the media did their part as well, given that there seemingly have been 80 "why aren't people talking about his age" articles and thinkpieces in the past six months

I think it's the same as four years ago as well in the sense that the Republicans continue to lower the bar so low (ie. dementia, senile, etc.) that he ends up graded on a curve in moments like these. We forget, but it happened *a lot* in 2020 as well. This was a pretty good SOTU on it's face, but in terms of the expectations game, it was a home run IMO

I am just now watching it and I don't think the comments here (or elsewhere) prepared me for how bad her delivery was.

Amazing