mtutiger

Honestly, it's a lot of what you are saying. Where we disagree is that, IMO, the administration probably understands and internalizes these same things but has the added weight of having to worry about how these actions would influence broader stability in the ME. For instance, do these actions creater further tension or embolden Iran, for instance? It's easy for Jon Favreau and the PodBros to lob grenades on this stuff because it isn't their responsibility to have to worry about the consequences.... it's a lot harder when you are the Principal and have to piece it together.

The border is undoubtedly an area of weakness for Biden, but the idea that it's the only thing that will matter when voters make a choice on Election Day is not grounded in reality.

Have people considered the possibility that Biden could still reverse course? Because if Coons is saying something like this, it wouldn't surprise me

What's your plan?

I'm fine with Axelrod, I think he is more of an honest broker than the Biden people give him credit for, but he pretty clearly doesn't like Biden and the feeling is clearly mutual on the other side as well.

David Axelrod worked in The White House while Biden was VP and it is commonly accepted that Axelrod doesn't like Joe Biden. It's not that hard to figure out that, while staffers and politicians may share parties or even administrations together, there can be rivalries, disagreements, distrust or even outright hatred among them.

This all makes sense to me.

It's also not a secret that a bunch of Obama's people have never exactly been huge fans of Joe Biden... and Favreau and the PodBros all come from Obama's orbit. Merits aside, the "even ____ said ____" line doesn't exactly apply here IMO.

Jon Favreau isn't a former Biden staffer.

The two most provocative quotes to me from the piece.... The second one is really interesting to me and it's completely plausible that the WSJ/Morning Consult types that field six swing state polls at a time are likely to miss the nuance of the electorate in each of these states.

In light of the Biden +10 poll that dropped today from an in-state pollster... Susquehanna had him +5 as well, both of which tell a much different story than national outlets polling PA. Interesting piece

For sure, there's still time until November and the aggregate has generally been moving in the correct direction. Whether it works out or not is to be seen, but Biden's theory of the campaign could be summed up by the old Wayne Gretzky quote, "I skate to where the puck is going, not to where it has been".... Polls and betting markets favor Trump now, but that may not always be the case.

Maybe my Twitter feed or real life interactions aren't representative, but at least in those interactions, it seems CW (at least as of today). Whether that holds in November or not is another matter.

It was likely an across the board hit and probably mattered most in places with high minority areas... I only bring it up because I kind of hesitate to go full on "Trump only lost because of COVID" because, in this case, this is a clear advantage that Trump had *because* of COVID.... Biden's supporters and campaign were much more cautious due to restrictions, Trump's wasn't. And it wouldn't surprise me if part of the polling error that occured in 2020 could be accounted for from these differences.

I don't either, but I also don't think the group with confidence and bravado is particularly large.... conventional wisdom at the moment is that Trump would win if the election were held today.

He obviously didn't win reelection regardless, but I do think the lack of door to door canvassing on the D side in 2020 had helped Trump to an extent in that election

I just... wow, what the ****

It's absolutely wild going on google and looking at hotels down in Southern Illinois for next Sunday.... almost everyone sold out, 1 and 2 star "raid can" hotels going for $399/night lol

My guess is that it would track with the beginning of 2001 A Space Odyssey when the monolith first appears.... first exhibiting fear, then being drawn in by it?

I'm gonna live with my 94% obscuration where I'm at, no interest in braving the crowds

What are the odds he lifted the "lit up the room" line from Henry Winkler's macular degeneration PSA?

There have been a lot of stories about Trump that have angered me, but this one probably does the most of those in this election cycle... just using people in their times of grief for his own personal political benefit.

What a sack of ****

Another Chris McCoskey moment?

If tomorrow is seen as a write-off, I could see them going ahead with this one and rescheduling tomorrow for Thursday