mtutiger

One of the big issues with the immigration debate in this country, and why I do not expect it to be solved any time soon, is that there is a real breakdown on what the problem actually... is. Before getting into the actual debate, there's the enforcement piece. I agree with that, have long felt Biden dithered way too long (into 2024) to actually deal with it. Most Americans (if polls are to be believed) feel this way as well. But with respect to the actual debate, is it limited to just border crossings and who cares about the status quo? Or is the problem that, because the process to actually get into the United States is onerous and years long, policy is *causing* this crisis to occur? Or, from more of the Stephen Miller perspective, is the problem that we have immigration at all? My perspective comes a lot from the industry I work in and talking with contractors... The average age in labor and trades (at least in our geographic area) is somewhere in the mid to high 50s. That's really really high. And there aren't people to backfill these roles currently. It's not even that there aren't domestic kids entering the trades, there are, it's that the demand combined with the attrition just overpowers those numbers. So how do you fix that? I'm not sure how you do that doesn't involve streamlining immigration, even if that is uncomfortable for some

Because the AfD and their supporters are also extremists, just with different characteristics / viewpoints? Ever heard of horseshoe theory? By the way, this is the same party who had a leader out there offering up apologia for the Waffen-SS... Last I checked, those guys were not above terrorism.

There is no strategy here...

To this end: Are they still "on to something"?

Do you think they're "on to something" here? German far-right AfD in disarray after Nazi remark

Good example of the issues that come with the "just blame the Democrats" strategy.... especially when Donald Trump continually goes out and does **** like this: There's probably a not-insignificant amount of Americans who probably think Trump *is* the President at this point lol

That isn't the framing I am seeing thus far, for what it's worth.

Four points: If a party can't get to a majority with their own membership when they hold a majority in the House, it's on them to find alternate paths (ie working with the other side). This crew has not chosen this path.... so they own this. Full stop. Because government shutdowns tend to hit programs that hit Democratic interests, Republicans frequently try to jam Ds and force them to accept terms that aren't otherwise ideal in order to prevent shutdowns or end shutdowns... the political reality we are living in suggests that assumption by Rs (that Ds will just fold) no longer holds. At least in my lifetime, in every government shutdown (starting with the 1990 one), the party that was blamed was the Republican Party... in large part because (with the exception of 1990, which was more of a Newt Gingrich vanity exercise), they all started with GOP Congresses. At the end of the day, the purse is Congresses job, and their responsibility. Combining Points 1-3 with Trump and Musk intervening in a high profile way on this, it's hard to see history changing should we have a shutdown here....

Watching the WGN 10:00 pm news tonight, while reporting on the bill going down after Musk and Trump's criticism, the anchor (Ray Cortopassi) dryly reports that Elon Musk " who, isn't elected to any office..." That's the good **** there.

Elect a clown, get a circus..... News at 11

There are risks, and generally am skeptical of big contracts, but he'd be worth backing the truck up for. With the Red Sox and Yankees in the mix, there's real challenges even if they are aggressive with him though.

For perspective, the Toronto Blue Jays, based on their latest Forbes valuation, are worth C$3 Billion - so we are talking about a total investment yearly that is less than half of the value of Canada's MLB team. So very much a drop in the bucket in terms of Canada's federal budget, correct.

If Trump doesn't want to be treated like a vassal of Elon Musk, he could probably start by not having Elon Musk involved in every intricate little public policy detail and every public engagement that he does as President-elect and, eventually, President. Incredibly predictable though... deep down, Trump has always been a beta.

"Surrender Pronto, or We'll Level Toronto!"

He's going to have some bite in areas where he has room to maneuver outside of Congress (namely tariffs and immigration), but the Margins in the House are incredibly narrow.... it's going to make governing really really hard, at least for the next two years.

I don't even know how much of a hot take it is at this point, but I think the chances they upgrade (via free agency or trade) at 1B are way higher than 3B at this point.

I've pretty consistently been skeptical of tariffs. On both this iteration of the board and the last Sorry if ideological consistency is inconvenient for your whataboutism.

Biden engaging in dumb policy quite obviously does not absolve Trump for engaging in even dumber policy.

Flashback to May 2023: Trump urges GOP to let catastrophic debt default happen if Dems don’t accept cuts

Will onshoring even happen though? The most likely end result is that the policy is implemented, it doesn't work, but we are subjected to economic pain anyway. That's what I'm getting at... the implication is that we need to accept these higher prices as a way to, quote un-quote, MAGA.... but when the policies are implemented and, inevitably, there are few examples of the goals being accomplished, all the while we are looking at an elevated inflation rate, what's the shelf life on giving this thing a chance? 1 year, 2 years, etc? The hardcore MAGAs will make excuses, but the example of 2022 and 2023 suggests that the people in the middle of the electorate are not nearly likely to be as patient IMO

Yuppers.... I couldn't imagine being a politician living through 2022-2023 and seeing what the impacts were and thinking, "oh yeah, let's embrace policies that will lead to even more inflation". Trump doesn't care, the man has few convictions but the tariffs are one of them.... but his party should care because they will outlive and outlast him and will have to deal with the consequences.

As much as some to love to talk about how many people are moving to the Sun Belt.... I assume that at least some of the folks doing the moving are trading in lower interest rates for higher ones (they aren't all paying cash lock stock and barrel lol)

There is a theory behind the tariffs, that the economic pain that the tariffs will inflict will magically lead to a bunch of onshoring of American manufacturing, increasing jobs to Americans. It's obviously a load of horse****, but to a degree some have either bought it or are hanging on it at the very least. I would be curious to know for how long we are all expected to hold our tongue and refrain from complaining about higher prices should he implement these tariffs.... is there a timeline? Or, paraphrasing Lord Farquaad from Shrek, are Americans paying higher prices in pursuit of flawed economic policy just a sacrifice that Donald Trump has to make?

Not necessarily - people take new jobs (with higher salaries), move for work, have growing families. All of these things, even with higher mortgage interest rates, absolutely can lead to people to move. Not saying that there aren't plenty of people who won't sit on their mortgages because of elevated interest rates, but over time that number of mortgages sitting in locked in at rock bottom rates will decline just due to attrition from these factors.

Amazing how the possibility of high inflation becomes an acceptable outcome and a pill we all have to swallow the moment Trump became President-elect As I recall, you were singing out of a much different song book (and slinging accusations at others) during 2022 and 2023 over this very issue. Interesting