mtutiger

This is right, and in general I think the very small but persistent ~1 point lead that Trump has had in these states in polling has led people to over index on the idea that they are off the table for Harris I don't think they ever were... AZ is a little murkier, but if NC/GA turnout is robust today and *if* Harris has truly rebuilt standing with AA voters versus where Biden was in the summer, she's absolutely can win there

You need WI, which I'm pretty sure is showing a similar picture in Milwaukee and Madison. If Raffensperger is correct (regarding GA), she has a real chance there IMO... likely going to see all the Metro ATL counties beat 2020 turnout.

https://x.com/stphnfwlr/status/1853847469081440700 Raffensperger now saying Georgia projected to hit 1.2 million EDay votes...

Nevada.... lots of parsing of the EV buttressed by 2020 assumptions that, based on partisan breakdowns of who is voting today, are looking pretty faulty at the moment. Doesn't mean one candidate will win over the other, just that as many of us learned in 2020, overreading EV data is a bad bad idea.

Nowhere is this more the case than Clark County, fwiw.

I honestly wonder how much parsing EV totals factors in... saw way too many people going into this election making way too many assumptions about EV numbers, especially given the pandemic in 2020. I wonder if the pollsters made assumptions on this as well. I don't know what's going to happen, but there are a lot of GOP folks who seemed to make assumptions about EV totals and behaviors that are on track to have egg on their face by the end of the day

If that's who I think it is... Wow

On that note.... lol

It made even less sense prior to her poll dropping, I will say that....

Going back to the question about where WI/PA fall relative to one another.... I just wonder whether the CW shifted toward PA being the tipping point because of it's necessity to Trump's path rather than actual evidence or common sense. I know, there's been a flood of polling of PA that seemingly herds to a tie, but just given what the two states are actually like, particularly how diverse PA is relative to WI, it's really hard to imagine it ending up to the right of WI when all the chips are down.

I get what you are saying, but the campaign schedule down the stretch here is 100% coming from Wiles / LaCivita. I don't think Trump personally is handing them a list of cities in NC/GA/PA to visit, the campaign is making decisions based on whatever data they are sitting on. GR tonight may be the exception, since he's ended his two previous runs there and he's superstitious

I keep coming back to the fact that he's spent more time in NC (the one state of the seven that he won four years ago) the past three days than he has any other state. I'm trying really hard to guard against motivated reasoning in how to look at this stuff, especially after how the last two elections, but when you tune out all the noise, having to spend that much time playing defense at this stage is generally not a great signal. The order of the blue wall will be interesting.... at least in the Trump era thus far, Wisconsin is always the rightmost state, but increasingly the CW is that PA will end up being closer. Goes against what I believe would happen, but how much of that is real or a product of Trump having to prioritize it due to how many EC votes it has remains to be seen.

The power of the MSG rally is that it didn't fall out of his mouth.... the Puerto Rican comment (along with a bunch of other terrible things) fell out of other people's mouths. To me, that's why it broke through....

Also, I just cannot bring myself to hold the 2008 primaries against Biden.... everybody in that field not named "Clinton" or "Obama" were cannon fodder.

William Jennings Bryan is another possible comparison from history - perhaps closer given that he lost the popular vote three times.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist in real life, but 1970s conspiracy films are a guilty pleasure lol

https://x.com/migold/status/1853449214488871279 Setting aside the empty seats, the amount of time that Trump is spending in NC seems like such a red flag to me

Exactly, she'd have to be off by a significant margin for Trump to match his margin from 2020. And while local issues could be a factor (Selzer suggested this as a possibility talking to The Bulwark, particularly the state implementing a 6 week abortion ban hasn't gone over well), it's very hard to think that the demographics of Iowa doesn't maybe tell a story about what the Driftless Area of Wisconsin might be thinking, for instance. My thought on Trump probably still winning / being favored in Iowa is mostly the idea that the undecideds in her poll are probably are a more Trump-friendly pool of voters than Harris-friendly pool.... but even then, he probably falls short of 2020 performance.

Ann Selzer cannot quite get me there on Iowa, but directionally I think she's right....

I don't make maps or predictions anymore (2016 left a bitter taste in my mouth), but I think she's going to perform better in Michigan than any of the other swing states. Detroit is going to be a big factor in that.

We will have to see what happens Wednesday, but honestly getting to the point where there's likely to be a reckoning in the polling industry regardless of what ends up happening.

Hmmm

"Macon, GA - Herschel Walker will introduce Trump at his rally tonight in GA, a source tells me. The former NFL player ran for Senate and lost to Raphael Warnock." Incredible

From the article: Sometimes I think that Republican operatives don't realize that most normal Americans aren't tied in with every single outrage of the day that comes down the pipe.... it's one of the party's biggest flaws in the Trump era. The average voter knew about MSG and likely didn't hear about Biden or anything he said....