mtutiger

Isn't there an (e) option that involves pollsters overcorrecting? I honestly don't know what is going on, but I do think that people are too dismissive of the idea that pollsters are trying things to increase accuracy from previous elections and that we ultimately won't know whether it works or not until after this thing happens.

CES's estimates are based off their demographic crosstabs - they had Trump gaining more with black voters and Harris gaining more with white voters than is likely to happen. I particularly doubt the Georgia numbers.... I'd be surprised if the spread is that high.

I would take a narrow win at this point just for this alone - maybe with him off this mortal coil or too old / incapacitated, maybe it gives both parties an opportunity to regroup and move our politics beyond his BS. If he wins, there'll be none of that.

CES shows her getting 276, not 270

Unless my math is wrong, that would add up to a Harris EC win.

All true, but a world where the economy doesn't matter isn't ideal for them, and they know it.

Telling

Donald Trump is apparently now making specious allegations about fraud in PA.... perhaps tells you where he thinks the race is there?

I don't watch cable news anymore, but how on earth did a "For You" level Twitter guy like Girdusky end up on their airways???

It's fitting that two days after this guy's terrible, unfunny and racist joke about Puerto Rico, Trump is scheduled to do a rally in a city (Allentown) where 1 in 4 residents are Puerto Rican. Just cosmic

I kinda referenced this the other day, but the fact that his campaign is messaging more of an Atlanta/Suburbs approach to campaigning in Georgia this time around is sort of telling... it's almost like an acknowledgment that they (correctly) think it's going to be difficult to wring more votes out of the rest of the state because the rural areas are already maxed out. Not criticizing the approach, it's the right one to take (you go where you can theoretically get more votes), but public polling aside (Georgia is seen as one of his better states) it projects a bit of weakness in their position as well.

Campbell is from Glen Rose, TX, which is a very wildly conservative town... but ultimately who knows. People can go against type from time to time.

So... They cut calling Kamala a ****, but left the joke about Puerto Rico in there?

I mean, this is the first election we have had since Dobbs, for starters... But January 6th, Trump fatigue etc. People don't always move politically all at once, sometimes it takes time.

Have said it before, but it cannot go ignored the fact that Whitmer (while winning the state by 11 points in 2022) did close to 20 points worse with this demo than Biden did in 2020.

There will be some of those too. Again, I don't think it's a ton of people, but enough in a close race for sure.

James Carville's demographic to watch... College white men

I'm not going to respond to every single point that Tater made (he made some good ones), but with respect to Republican defections, I do think these people are real. I don't know what the percentage looks like, but they could be determinative in some states.

There is plenty to be worried about, and it's not impossible that he's underestimated again. But that isn't a guarantee either and it shouldn't be taken on faith, especially with an N of 2.

What if they aren't?

I don't know what will happen in eight days, but statistically speaking, you need more than an N=2 for something to be chiseled into stone.