mtutiger

Telling

Donald Trump is apparently now making specious allegations about fraud in PA.... perhaps tells you where he thinks the race is there?

I don't watch cable news anymore, but how on earth did a "For You" level Twitter guy like Girdusky end up on their airways???

It's fitting that two days after this guy's terrible, unfunny and racist joke about Puerto Rico, Trump is scheduled to do a rally in a city (Allentown) where 1 in 4 residents are Puerto Rican. Just cosmic

I kinda referenced this the other day, but the fact that his campaign is messaging more of an Atlanta/Suburbs approach to campaigning in Georgia this time around is sort of telling... it's almost like an acknowledgment that they (correctly) think it's going to be difficult to wring more votes out of the rest of the state because the rural areas are already maxed out. Not criticizing the approach, it's the right one to take (you go where you can theoretically get more votes), but public polling aside (Georgia is seen as one of his better states) it projects a bit of weakness in their position as well.

Campbell is from Glen Rose, TX, which is a very wildly conservative town... but ultimately who knows. People can go against type from time to time.

So... They cut calling Kamala a ****, but left the joke about Puerto Rico in there?

I mean, this is the first election we have had since Dobbs, for starters... But January 6th, Trump fatigue etc. People don't always move politically all at once, sometimes it takes time.

Have said it before, but it cannot go ignored the fact that Whitmer (while winning the state by 11 points in 2022) did close to 20 points worse with this demo than Biden did in 2020.

There will be some of those too. Again, I don't think it's a ton of people, but enough in a close race for sure.

James Carville's demographic to watch... College white men

I'm not going to respond to every single point that Tater made (he made some good ones), but with respect to Republican defections, I do think these people are real. I don't know what the percentage looks like, but they could be determinative in some states.

There is plenty to be worried about, and it's not impossible that he's underestimated again. But that isn't a guarantee either and it shouldn't be taken on faith, especially with an N of 2.

What if they aren't?

I don't know what will happen in eight days, but statistically speaking, you need more than an N=2 for something to be chiseled into stone.

I differ with what Ed has said in the past insofar that I don't think it's completely worthless information (obviously pretty important for the campaigns themselves), but it's pretty worthless for people like us for the most part.

I mean, they actually might be via their vote history. But in some of these states, particularly in PA but also MI/WI as well, you're going to get people who are registered (PA) or model (MI/WI) as Rs who will end up voting for Kamala Harris, and that number could be not-insignificant. Like, if Harris ends up improving her margin in Waukesha County, she isn't necessarily doing it by turning out more people who model as Ds.... she's persuading people who model as Rs.

This, of course, assumes that everyone modeled as an R in early vote is a vote for Trump. (same applies in the other direction as well)

I honestly don't know.... but I suspect it's voters who only show up for a Presidential election or demos that generally don't turn out at high rates (ie. young voters, particularly males)

With low propensity "Barstool" types as well, it just demonstrates the weakness of Trump's position insofar that the groups that are commonly seen as places he's gaining (young men, non-white men) are among the lowest propensity voters in the first place. Whereas Harris is commonly seen to be gaining with some of the highest propensity voters (ie. white suburban women, college educated voters, maybe to a lesser extent white non college women) I sometimes think that gets lost in how the demographics of this election are covered. Again, it doesn't mean he cannot win, but a lot has to go right when your strength goes through lower propensity voter types.

For what it's worth, David Plouffe has suggested a couple of times that they aren't seeing a ton of intensity with low-propensity voters like this in their early vote data thus far.