mtutiger

Not always the biggest Maggie Haberman fan, but this was an interesting reveal; on one hand, it matches the attention that Harris is giving to MI/WI this week, on the other hand, it seems sort of damning that for all the time and money that the Trump Campaign has invested in PA (prioritizing it, and it's 19 EC votes, over all other states) apparently feels less confident in PA than MI/WI. I know that anything can happen and theoretically PA can be won by the loser of the EC, but it's really hard to imagine a candidate winning PA and losing in reality. Particularly given how close the Blue Wall states tend to shake out.

Damage control?

The cadence of campaigning is another factor as well... sure, we had the conversation about Trump's strategy of having a few rallies and hiding in the basement as a means of self-preservation, but she can go out and create offense as well. Three stops in Wisconsin today for instance, at a time when Trump is increasingly receding. Likely will see more of that going forward across the seven states. One of the few criticisms that I have is that they probably should have picked up the cadence a week or two earlier, but also this is the time to do it insofar that voters (especially less engaged voters) are just now starting to think about voting (whether it be early, by mail or on EDay).

"Were" is doing a hell of a lot of work here.

I understand that people want to apply strategy to it or conspiracies and all, but the Occam's Razor explanation here is that Donald Trump is 78 years old and both in poor health and evasive as to his medical history. And unable to get in front of a crowd that isn't a perfectly curated safe-space for him (ie. compare Fox Women's Town Hall vs. Univision Town Hall). To the extent that any of this is strategic, it's because his campaign has literally no other choice than to pursue it because of the candidate's apparent weaknesses and declining mental abilities.

If this is true, then she's just about approaching 2020 Biden polling with black voters... Big big deal

Did it really take until 19 days before the election for this reporter to notice that Trump is a loon?

This is a really good post.... whatever *this* is, it doesn't feel like 2016. And it doesn't feel like 2020 either, which in and of itself was a black swan event because of COVID. There may be things here or there that I might pick nits with, but if she loses, it's not going to be about the campaign she ran. It's going to be on the American people, or at least those in the states that will decide the election, choosing Trump.

I would only add to my post as well, if we're talking about margins, is that you have to consider the percentage of the electorate that these groups might make up versus four years ago as well. I'm not entirely sure what percentage of the electorate is made up of religious conservatives so IDK what that difference might be there, but in terms of rural whites (using them as a proxy here), they make up a smaller amount of the electorate with each passing cycle. What that means is that Trump has to juice more out of that group every time in order to keep up... or find new voters elsewhere in the electorate (which, not sure the degree of success, they clearly have been trying to do with Hispanics/Black Males)

Religious voters are a subset, but Rural Whites really feel like an overlooked group in this election.... so much attention given to other groups (Hispanics, Blacks, Suburban/Col Ed Whites), but while I think the assumption is Trump matches his 2020 run here, honestly IDK. Dobbs looms large here too, not just because of how it might speak to secular rural whites, but also to the pollster's point, the fact that Trump's post-Dobbs positioning is at least marginally a wedge for his more religious supporters.

He's had a lot of bad moments in interviews lately, but in the context of this campaign (and the importance of the Hispanic vote within it), that Univision interview is probably the most damaging. Obviously low expectations for impact as nothing ever seems to matter, but it was by no means a good thing for him.

It's really worth watching the whole thing....

Suffice it to say, he didn't answer the question.

Speaking as somebody who worked at McDonalds, I relate more to the person who actually drew a paycheck from them over the guy pandering for voters.

Considering how the NYT has been all election cycle.... wow

Kamala has received some heat over the past couple of weeks for not being as active as Trump on the campaign trail, but it's hard not to wonder if the tables are gonna turn quickly on that.

Possibly, I didn't watch live but afterward myself. But even still, Fox does get a lot of eyeballs from people who aren't necessarily in the tank for Trump.... there's a reason that Pete Buttigieg shows up there periodically and that the Harris campaign sent Walz onto Fox News Sunday recently. Not to mention the fact that it is default programming in a lot of public spaces in areas of the country. Of course I do think there was benefit beyond the actual Fox audience though - she benefits from proving she can spar and hold her own against all comers. Baier gave no quarter, but she did well and (at times) exceeded IMO. It almost seemed like a form of absolution that she had to go through in the context of this campaign.

Uday and Qusay have never had a single callus on their hands during their entire lives, that much is for sure....

I ended up watching it and agree - she wasn't even really asked about policy, at least in the context of policy that matters in polling (ie. economy, immigration, abortion), it seemed more like a quasi-Hannity style thing to create culture war chum for the base. I don't know that it was a home run, but the people calling it a "disaster" don't realize that the interview wasn't really about them or their needs.... it was about the undecideds or the folks sitting on the fence. I think she did some work there.

Trump could shoot someone on 5th Avenue have a stroke on live TV and nobody would care.

I'm beyond making any declarations about electoral politics because very little seems to matter or change this race.... but just as a practical matter, this guy is toast... and he's not going to get any better. Scary stuff.

In case anybody needed any evidence why his campaign is increasingly hiding Trump from tough interviews, this Bloomberg interview in Chicago is case in point. What a mess.

Yikes

The tariffs are also going to pay for all the debt he plans to add apparently....