mtutiger

We will have to see what happens Wednesday, but honestly getting to the point where there's likely to be a reckoning in the polling industry regardless of what ends up happening.

Hmmm

"Macon, GA - Herschel Walker will introduce Trump at his rally tonight in GA, a source tells me. The former NFL player ran for Senate and lost to Raphael Warnock." Incredible

From the article: Sometimes I think that Republican operatives don't realize that most normal Americans aren't tied in with every single outrage of the day that comes down the pipe.... it's one of the party's biggest flaws in the Trump era. The average voter knew about MSG and likely didn't hear about Biden or anything he said....

I understand what you are saying, but this is way more effective coming from Obama (who hasn't been in office since Jan 2017)... Biden tried variations of this when he was still in the race, but it didn't work because he's currently in office, and it comes across as defensive. Don't have that problem with O doing it.

Uhh

https://x.com/AlexCKaufman/status/1853152097618870336 The Puerto Rican stuff remains toxic...

I can accept this at face value, the problem is that, at least with the Nates, they have both to varying degrees used polls and crosstabs to make broad sweeping commentary about the electorate and the changes within. Haven't seen from Silver, but Cohn is hedging big time and basically saying "nobody knows nothin'"... that's contradictory IMO

Didn't even think about it, but tariffs could be a factor in his apparent weakness in the plains states too... Tariffs are basically poison for farmers across the cornbelt

If Selzer is, in fact, onto something that is being missed more broadly, there's gonna need to be a discussion within the polling / political media world about the constant underplaying of the abortion issue. Because this would be the third November in a row where people end up surprised at how much it matters.

It really does kinda feel like J. Ann Selzer rolled a metaphorical grenade into the discourse and has people second guessing their assumptions, doesn't it? We'll find out whose right in a couple of days, I guess....

This thread is insane.... like, we spent months and months having the NYT put out writeups definitively declaring what was or wasn't happening in the electorate, only to end up with this mishmash of hedges and caveats?

Who could have possibly predicted? lol

Even beyond her, I think the fact that the Trump Leadership Team needed to issue a memo about this poll is such a red flag to me. They know stuff that we aren't seeing. It's been obvious for a little while now.

The Governor of Iowa feels the need to weigh in.

The Trump Campaign's response to Selzer

They landed numbers in 2020 relatively accurately, but their methodology is suspect. And they have had a lot of issues in their own backyard (ie. Sao Paolo) I'll take my chances with J. Ann Selzer over those guys. I'd say the same thing if Selzer gave us a Trump +15 poll

Maybe this is a conversation better had after the votes are cast, but people really need to stop stereotyping and understand that the demographics that swung heavily toward Trump in 2016 may not have the same relationship with him today. I'm not saying it's a lot of folks, but not everybody feels the same way that they did then. And it may impact actual voting behavior. But there's a tendency if you don't spend time in rural America to assume that perceptions don't change, and that's not necessarily true.

I'll trust J. Ann Selzer and her outlier over the Brazilians who can't even get races in Brazil correct.

Pretty much. This is the thing I don't get... from a media standpoint, we have had countless articles and thinkpieces about the Barstool Bros and Young Men (including Black and Hispanic Men).... yet nobody bothered to ask about the demos that make up so much of WI/MI/PA... the WWC or where there head might be at about all this stuff. Particularly WWC women. It's insane to me. It almost seems like there are ulterior motives given the obvious story that exists.

This seems more realistic to me, yet equally devastating if it is real....

I drove past two farms in rural Kankakee/Will County IL earlier today with big Harris-Walz displays... It's not epochal or anything, but something is going on.... people are willing to put it out there, stick their neck out in a way they didn't previously.

Look, I don't think she's going to win Iowa, Selzer's poll is a clear outlier... but you cannot deny the direction that outlier is going or the degree. If she's even off by 5-6 points, it's still a Godawful result for DJT. I truly think she found something here, at least based off my own personal experiences. How much that corresponds to parts of Wisconsin or other states in areas where there are heavy WWC demos remains to be seen.