mtutiger

I went ahead and listened... Thought the most eye opening thing was that her group has been polling in Alaska.

Multiple days in a row now

Maybe partly him, but I just get the sense in general that Trump is having issues in rural areas... Like, they aren't going to revert to 2012 levels of Dem support or anything like that, but that he could lose a few percentage points in some of these states anyway. And that would matter a lot, particularly in the northern swing states. Some of Kamala's campaign choices in PA, going to Johnstown and Wilkes-Barre, places that have swung hard right since Trump showed up on the scene, tells me they are seeing something as well in their own data

This would seem to backup the Seltzer Iowa poll (WI-3, driftless area seat bordering IA)

OK

Thanks again, JD

Sounds like Bay City, tbh. Particularly the gilded Victorians

Awesome, thanks JD

He endorsed Vivek/Nikki as a ticket in this election, so I would say he's still pretty hard to pin down politically. As most mental cases are.

Also assumes that this doesn't trigger more stupidity going forward from Trump's Campaign. Which, unfortunately, seems very likely. This is the counterintuitive take that I've seen today that bears some consideration: What happened today just reinforces and associates Trump's brand with chaos.... and perhaps reminds the persuadable voters that remain of various moments of chaos in term one. It's not a popular take, we are all conditioned to believe that "everything that happens helps Trump." But that's often not true... the muted response to his first assassination attempt should be a good example.

Just an addendum, but given everything that we have seen from his candidacy just this week in Ohio, I'd be lying if I said it was easy to find sympathy for him. Doesn't change the fact that it was wrong, there's never a reason for political violence, obviously. But it doesn't change that he's not a sympathetic figure and that he's clearly demonstrated that he's more than willing to inflict pain and trauma on others if he feels it advances his interests.

Another mental health case it appears...

I don't know how people will react to this and neither do you. We also do not have all of the information, and most of America is currently watching the NFL right now and not focused on this. We also have to remember that he did absolutely nothing after the first attempt to really build sympathy or unity and has, since, done basically the exact opposite. To the point where schools, colleges and municipal government buildings in a mid-sized Ohio city are being forced to close on account of his tickets words and actions. This was an attempt, it was wrong, and it was not a false flag. But I don't see how it changes our current reality

I'll await more information, but from listening to the PBC sheriff, it sounds like it worked about as well as it could have in this instance. We really should wait for more information

Thanks JD

I don't think Ohio is in question, but on a micro level, this suggests to me that Springfield / Clark County might be Trump's Kenosha

Tim did what he could in that race... It was Ohio in an R+3 year nationally, he overperformed

Where I come from, I believe this was called "lying"

This is the other part of the Iowa result - DCCC has been putting their money where their mouths are with respect to a couple of Congressional races they see as competitive this cycle. This reads as evidence that there's something to it.

Have tried not to overread polls after 2020, but this is arguably the worst poll of the cycle for Donald Trump, I'd go as far to say.... Iowa is a state with high amount of white non-college voters and the topline suggests slippage with this group. Which also lends credence to the idea that her polling average in Wisconsin (around +3) may be real and not the phantom advantage we saw in previous election cycles. It's also reflected a lot in some of the campaign choices she is making - her and Walz are spending time in places like Johnstown and Wilkes-Barre in PA, Wausau and Superior in WI.... they apparently must be seeing something internally that suggests they can shave some margin in rural areas, and this result suggests they may be onto something. The final poll before the election tends to be the one that matters most and may yield a different result (that happened in 2020), but this one is a meaningful result regardless

Along with his VP candidate, who apparently spent his Saturday getting into Twitter fights with Zaid Jilani and Krystal Ball, the mantra is to always double down, double down. They are responsible for this... And they should be held accountable

Unacceptable

It also acts more or less as an admission that he doesn't think he can change or improve his situation through that format. Don't know that it ultimately matters a lot electorally, but it is such a damning thing.... and really not unlike the situation Biden found himself in in that his biggest liability (age) was something he couldn't ever fix.

Orange Chicken weighs in on the idea of another debate...