mtutiger

(Except when Donald Trump does it bcuz reasons) *insert Bald Eagle picture here*

We've reached the "throwing spaghetti at the wall and hoping it sticks" phase apparently

I think he wants to win and the risk if he doesn't is real. But this is his third time running, people know who he is. So he's running back the old playbook and it doesn't work like it used to. We always marvel at how many people still support him, but the flip side of that is that there are very few people who have made up their mind on him in the negative who are going to move off of their position. And that group is larger, upward of 50-55% of the electorate.

Monmouth has a weird way of asking the questions about the two candidates that doesn't make it a true head to head. Change that was made after messing up the NJ Governors race in 2021. It's definitely a good poll for Harris, but their methodology makes it less useful and easier to avoid scrutiny.

A few things: 1.) Pollsters obviously aren't broadcasting means and methods because they are trade secrets, but it has been reported many have adjusted from 2020 to try to capture any weaknesses missed. (As your post suggests) 2.) In 2020, we were in the midst of a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic that had real world impacts in many ways, including in sampling as well as how each party undertook campaigning (ie. Dems were not canvassing in person) and what method people used to vote. Obviously could have impacted polls as these real world impacts are hard to model. 3.) Going off recollection here, but IIRC, Biden's margins were strong, but he was often polling at or around 50% in a lot of these states. IOW, polls were decent in finding Dem share, but had trouble finding Trump's share. Using the 49-46 result in the Suffolk PA poll as an example, there are far less "undecideds" and likely is closer to what a final outcome would be like than a lot of the polling 4 years ago would have shown

Oh, I misinterpreted... Yes, situation for Trump sort of resembles Biden before dropping out for sure. Not quite that bad, but could get there depending on how things go the rest of the way. What would make me nervous if I were them is that they could throw infinite money and resources at PA and, frankly, I'm not sure that it would even be the tipping point state (which is probably what they are trying to make happen). We assume it will be, but people assumed that in 2020 too - and it turned out to be WI instead.

If you are referring to the 2020 primary, his strategy was more chalk then people realize... The most sizable and important demo in the D Party are black voters (particularly women), and the first three contests did not have a lot of those voters in them. His win in SC was practically a guarantee, and after that, the biggest risk was that Pete/Amy/Beto/etc. wouldn't get out. Once they did, it was pretty much over.

It's partially a repeat of this, but also the junk pollsters targeting PA much more than MI/WI is a function of how Trump's campaign sees the landscape IMO. If you look at the money, their campaign is ceding a lot of ground in MI/WI/AZ/NV and seems to be banking mostly on winning PA/GA and holding NC. It's another inside straight strategy... But it's really risky and limits the paths to 270

Not downplaying the debate performance as a possible impact, but there was also a much larger flood of crap quality polling into the PA average over the past month that has impacted analysis of the state. It's probably also not coincidental that PA has added significance over MI/WI for EC reasons as well. And that Trump seems to be pushing resources to the state at the expense of most of the other battleground states.

Higher margins of error with the counties, but if Harris is winning both Erie and Northampton, she's winning PA

The John James seat is gonna get a cash infusion

The thing that is throwing me is that he never really enunciates the "I" in immigrant. Makes it harder to see the charitable interpretation

Damn, Rich needs to lay off the sauce 🤣

Definitely open to that interpretation

I wouldn't vote for DeWine, but in terms of the basic blocking and tackling of government in a crisis, he's increasingly becoming less common in that party

Cornel West fails to make PA ballot

DeWine is a dying breed in the GOP...

It has very idiosyncratic politics in general. Not surprising - a state that is separated from the contiguous US is bound to approach politics differently. I definitely think it's fair to think that Alaska could be approaching lean R status though... Trumpism isn't a great fit for the demographics of the state.

I went ahead and listened... Thought the most eye opening thing was that her group has been polling in Alaska.

Multiple days in a row now

Maybe partly him, but I just get the sense in general that Trump is having issues in rural areas... Like, they aren't going to revert to 2012 levels of Dem support or anything like that, but that he could lose a few percentage points in some of these states anyway. And that would matter a lot, particularly in the northern swing states. Some of Kamala's campaign choices in PA, going to Johnstown and Wilkes-Barre, places that have swung hard right since Trump showed up on the scene, tells me they are seeing something as well in their own data

This would seem to backup the Seltzer Iowa poll (WI-3, driftless area seat bordering IA)

OK