mtutiger

I feel bad for the workers.... I don't think any of them wanted to be props for this.

For better or worse, views of GWB have softened a lot over the years, and he won a lot of votes in his elections in historically GOP places that are now shaky during the Trump era (ie. the suburbs). It's an endorsement they would gladly accept and would be well received, although celebrity appearance is more likely to be the case.

I have no special insight, TSwift or Beyonce is probably a better guess... but there wouldn't be the shock value that a very high profile GOP defection would bring.

Don't look now, but Harris is pretty close to 2020 benchmarks with Hispanics in Arizona...

George W Bush?

I know that it's Ron F. sharing this and all, but JFC

That's fair.... it's just been sort of amusing this entire election cycle how people cannot apply any sort of perspective to the overall demographics of Michigan, especially since the I/P conflict broke out. For Trump, it's definitely all motivated reasoning / clinging to things to divide, no argument there.

If that was the theory, it's a really terrible one; a shift in Hamtramck would be wiped out almost instantaneously by a 0.5% shift left in Oakland County (which it seems likely Oakland will shift left this cycle again)

Florida trended hard against the D ticket in 2020, although it can be competitive in the right circumstances (which may be possible given where things have been going since Harris was elevated). But in terms of tipping points, if Florida goes for Kamala Harris, in all likelihood they have already won MI/WI/PA/AZ/NV/GA/NC and the election. Given the centrality of those seven states and given the size and expense of both Florida, it's hard for a campaign, even one that has raised as much money as Harris has, to commit maximal resources to it without impacting states that are closer to the tipping point. I can see scenarios where it would make sense to spend a little money or even dedicate a few visits to FL or TX, but they cannot take their eyes off the ball (which are the seven states)

I remain skeptical that it would have been successful, but I am more convinced they were definitely going to try to provoke / exacerbate divisions within the party via I/P protestors (along with DJT more-or-less labeling him a "bad Jew", as he did with his "bleat" last night)

"Can't" or "Won't" is probably too strong.... but it is very unlikely regardless. But it stands to reason that if the margin in Texas decreases from it's 5.7% in 2020 (and it very well could - the state is still left trending on a national basis) and if there really is a delta between Trump and Cruz, Cruz should be very very worried. And it's not totally surprising to me.... a lot of people do not like Ted Cruz, he's not a beloved figure outside of the hardcore GOP down there. The same goes for Florida and Rick Scott as well.... ultimately at the Presidential level, you focus on the established battlegrounds, but because of the Senate races, I don't know if Florida and TX can be frozen out on attention IMO. Especially if a D majority relies so heavily on Jon Tester winning in a state that Kamala will end up losing by 15% in all likelihood.

This is why Texas polling matters... Harris won't win, but there's been a really consistent 3-5 point gap between Trump and Cruz. So if she's losing close, Cruz can lose...

If this is true, this would be exhibiting a level of overconfidence that would make Clinton 2016 look cautious and careful by comparison. In reality, probably a mixed bag. Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita probably know better, but the candidate doesn't, and the people below them are gonna take their cues from the candidate

I've kinda come to the conclusion that it's a combination of how they really hate how Walz codes (ie. Normie Midwest dad, teacher, coach) and that because Vance has been attacked hard, it warrants an equal reaction / pretending he has equally grave flaws as a candidate (he doesn't). As the old saying goes, when you're the hammer, everything looks like a nail. But strategically, Adam is right... We are now in the third week of the Trump Camp Pain focusing way more fire on the VP candidate rather than the actual candidate. It's just really not smart at all

Going after Shapiro like this is... A decision

Kinda felt this was during Emhoff's speech last night as well, but modern American families are complex, and they are far from the relatively sanitized versions we have seen portrayed in past Presidencies. Walz' is the same way... It's just nice to see, evidence that for all that is wrong with society today, we are incrementally getting better nonetheless

He seemed to go off prompter more tonight versus his earlier appearances, but even with his inexperience, he never lost the authenticity. He absolutely nailed it

Wow...

Holy ****, the first one... Come on guys

The impact of RFK Jr.'s departure from this race is more likely to be ephemeral than people will treat it, although it totally reinforces the "weirdo" aspect of the Trump/Vance ticket for sure.

I believe what Chas may be trying to say is that RFK Jr. will never be HHS Secretary, and I believe that, as a practical matter of Senate math, he's right. Even in the likely event that the GOP takes back the Senate.

Related maybe?

January 6th and Trump's criminality are very important things, but there's a tension in that the things that are required to win voters over or even drive turnout from your own side may not be advanced by leaning too heavily into those events. Obama's comment about people "tuning out" just now is something to keep in mind.