mtutiger

Wild splits between POTUS and Senate/Gov... These would make me nervous if I were Trump, no real polling error in Georgia or AZ in 2020.

Was literally turned into a TikTok within 24 hours

Apparently he turned his Arlington visit into a TikTok...

Any update on the Kamala Krash?

I'm just amazed that, of this were literally any other campaign (either party), it would be a massive scandal that would result in heads rolling. But since it's Trump, it's treated like just another Tuesday. These are choices that are being made by the media... Just because people have floor-level expectations for him as a candidate doesn't mean stories like this don't deserve more coverage or scrutiny

Absolutely bonkers stuff here

As a purely political matter, I don't think it will matter either...

A lot will depend on rural areas too.... Dems will not win in many of these areas but trimming margins in these places matters a lot. Obviously he still lost by a lot, but Biden did manage to win back vote share in a lot of areas of the Upper Midwest, which made a difference, particularly in WI and PA. In general, I do think the Dem Party has come a long way in understanding that turning 75-25 counties into 70-30 or 65-35 can go a long way.... the votes all count the same regardless of where they are cast. With respect to Ohio, if they were to have any chance there, it would have to involve more of this.... Ohio is just tougher than much of the Midwest (particularly MI and WI) because so much of the southern part of the state is Appalachia adjacent, and much more hostile to Dems than even conservative parts of MI or WI are.

Increasingly coming around on the idea that getting RFK Jr. to drop out was all about PA, which is one state where he was successful in getting off the ballot. And which the election hinges on more than any other

On the ballot in WI

Another theory too is that, because of COVID and because so many people were impacted / stuck inside during that period, raised the salience of politics a lot more in people's lives and drove insane turnout that is likely not to be replicated on either side in 2024. I would be shocked if either side turns out as much as they did in 2020, so setting aside persuasion (it does matter to a degree) and registering new voters, the ballgame comes down turning out / motivating as many 2020 voters as possible to get back out again in 2024. On that front, there's more work to be done, but I think that Harris is on the right track from what I can see

He was drawing really huge crowds in 2020 though, especially given COVID going on. My own sense is that between the crowd size, tepid grassroots fundraising and just the overall muted signs of his support driving around (living in a relatively red area, albeit in a blue state), the energy isn't really where it has been in past cycles. Even just discussing with some more conservative folks in my life, I get a sense of exhaustion as well. It doesn't mean he cannot win, but I'm also not going to pretend to not see what is readily apparent either.

Something to keep an eye on... The big prize for Trump is that he'll be off in PA, but he's probably still going to be on the ballot in some of the other states

Came here to post this... Just amazing stuff

?

cc: Peggy Noonan

Couldn't imagine why... Woof

The thing with this endorsement from Trump's perspective is that the share that RFK seems to be taking from him (probably around 0.5% nationally) is only one angle to look at it; the other angle is that RFK is a nutjob whose views do not align well with a lot of middle of the road / swing voters, and Trump further associating himself on that front probably isn't all that helpful. All to say that it's not without zero risk and sort of reeks of desperation. Ultimately doubt any of this matters much in the end though.... especially once Biden dropped out, it was clear that this was going to be all about the top of the ticket.

This is a really good point... He's still gonna be on the ballot in at least three swing states (WI, NV, NC)

Freaks of a feather.... flock together.

I don't know how much you can glean from those numbers, but at the very least it seems like even more evidence that NC is firmly in play