mtutiger

Got it... I suppose that second paragraph was better addressed to another poster.

My view on Early Vote Numbers is that while they aren't all that meaningful to the average person, I do think people in campaigns or in elections administration positions can use that data to make informed reasonable judgments. Ie. People who do this **** for a living. I don't know if Winfrey is ultimately correct here, we'll find out in a few days. (She was more or less in the ballpark in 2020 IIRC). But I doubt that she has incentive to make statements that she doesn't believe to be accurate, especially on a subject like this.

That's a big big deal if it materializes... Potentially thousands of additional raw votes given the general partisanship of Detroit

If there is one real disappointment throughout this entire thing, it's that Mitt Romney still hasn't done the right thing here... don't know how much it matters, but it's obvious.

The Governors race is competitive because the Lt. Gov candidate (they run as a ticket in IN) is certifiable, probably the main reason (her only chance involves a big turnout in that district). Helping Frank Mrvan in IN-1 is a secondary reason, although he's probably OK.

It's actually worse on video

You're correct.... not sure if that explains the difference, but perhaps has something to do with trying to reach Kenosha Co, who knows.

It would be - I don't know how ad buys work (if they are night to night or are for the series), but if a campaign is advertising during the WS, it's generally a national buy iirc.

I haven't had the chance to go to MI or north of the cheddar curtain this year, but even driving around areas where I have been this year (IL, IA, MN, PA, IN, OH, Upstate NY) it's been striking how few signs have been out in the wild. There's been an uptick in the last week or so, but it's really muted.

WTF

Sporting events tend to be national buys - could just be spending decisions night to night by the campaigns? I live in the Chicago area and otherwise on local TV it's local IL races and the IN-1 and IN-Gov races.

"Dukakis in the Tank" energy

Real life James Bond villain

Wow

Sure, but my point is that a lot of these losses (to the extent that they further materialize) are already baked into the landscape. And again, this is a group of voters that, in totality, is significantly less than Biden's margin in 2020. A couple of point shift to the left in Oakland County, or a couple of more points of turnout in Detroit (which is a hydrogen bomb of D votes) would single-handedly wipe out those losses and thensome. All of this is to say that if Harris loses Michigan, it isn't going to be because of Arab voters... it will be because she lost ground in other, larger parts of the electorate that make up the state. It doesn't mean that this group isn't important, every vote matters, but context matters as well.

Dobbs is a factor too.... People don't want to engage on this, but the discussion around these voters is more nuanced than what we generally get. Mostly because a) it's inconvenient and b) national media outlets don't understand the demographics of Michigan at all.

To be fair, the fact that Gretchen Whitmer did 20 points worse with this group despite winning the state by 11 suggests other reasons could be a factor as well

Three polls now today (Noble, YouGov - National, Marquette - Wisconsin) showing Harris with leads despite electorates that are very Republican leaning (R +3, R+3 and R+5 respectively). That really stands out.... She's getting leads in individual polls even with heavy R samples.

Considering Arnold's history (and how he came to this country and how he landed in the GOP), I found this really powerful.

Is it tho? I doubt it's ideal, but it does give him an opportunity to distance themselves from Biden lol

Most of what he has done since he ended his campaign hasn't mattered (this isn't his first gaffe), and this will be no different in all likelihood. Also think it gives Harris an opportunity to further distance herself from Biden and "the politics of the past" if she's asked about it

Was Biden +7.1 in 2020. Hmmm

Biden lost the district (in it's current form) by 2.8.

Correct, explained in subsequent post.